U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Sep ’15
Pork – Net Trade Declines to Six Month Low
Jul ’15 U.S. pork export volumes continued to decline from the three year high experienced in Apr ’15, falling 0.3% YOY and 7.4% MOM on a daily average basis. U.S. pork exports destined to South Korea remained strong, increasing YOY for the 18th consecutive month and finishing 36.0% above the previous year, while export volumes destined to Mexico increased by 14.5%. U.S. pork export volumes to other major export destinations remained weak, however. Exports destined to Canada declined for the fourth consecutive month on a YOY basis, finishing 2.6% below the previous year while export volumes to Japan fell by 0.9% YOY. U.S. pork exports to Japan, Mexico, South Korea and Canada accounted for over three quarters of all pork export volumes in Jul ’15.
Jul ’15 U.S. pork imports remained higher on a YOY basis, increasing by 7.7%. Declining YOY pork exports, coupled with increasing YOY pork imports, resulted in Jul ’15 net pork trade declining to a six month low. Jul ’15 U.S. net pork trade finished down 2.3% YOY and 5.6% MOM on a daily average basis and is down 13.6% YTD through the first ten months of the production season.
U.S. pork export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.2%, while U.S. pork imports have remained fairly flat, increasing at a CAGR of 0.3% over the same time period. ’13-’14 annual pork imports experienced much stronger growth, finishing 10.5% higher than the previous year, the largest YOY percentage gain in 11 years. Despite the increase in pork imports, ’13-’14 annual pork exports volumes remained over five times as large as import volumes. Pork export volumes have remained over four times as large as import volumes throughout the first ten months of the ’14-’15 production season.
Beef & Veal – Net Trade Remains Down Significantly YOY
Jul ’15 U.S. beef & veal export volumes remained weak, declining 12.7% YOY and 9.6% MOM on a daily average basis. Beef & veal export volumes have declined YOY for 13 consecutive months through July. Of the major export destinations, YOY declines in export volumes were led by combined volumes to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (-24.3%), followed by Japan (-23.0%), Mexico (-21.8%), and Canada (-10.2%). Export volumes to South Korea increased YOY for the sixth consecutive month, finishing 31.1% higher than the previous year. U.S. beef & veal exports to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 85% of all beef & veal export volumes in Jul ’15.
Jul ’15 U.S. beef & veal imports remained higher on a YOY basis, increasing by 9.6%, although imports did decline to a five month low on an absolute basis. Beef & veal import volumes have increased YOY for 17 consecutive months through Jul ’15, exceeding export volumes by 35.6% over the period. The Jul ’15 YOY increase in beef & veal imports of 9.6% was the lowest experienced over the 17 month period.
Recent strength in beef & veal imports resulted in ’13-’14 annual U.S. beef & veal imports finishing higher than annual U.S. beef & veal exports for the first time in four years, with this trend continuing into the ’14-’15 production season. Beef & veal net trade declined to a new seven and a half year low in Apr ’15.
Chicken – Net Trade Declines to Four and a Half Year Low on Weak Export Demand
Jul ’15 U.S. broiler export volumes remained weak declining 20.7% YOY and 13.9% MOM on a daily average basis to a new four and a half year low. Monthly export volumes have declined YOY throughout nine of the past ten months as the broiler export market continues to be negatively affected by the Russian import ban. Russia accounted for 8.2% of U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the ’12-’13 production season. Excluding Russia, Jun ’15 broiler export volumes remained down 17.7% YOY, however, as declines were also experienced in other major U.S. broiler import markets. Combined broiler export volumes to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China finished down 41.6% YOY, while broiler export volumes to Mexico declined YOY for the third consecutive month, finishing down 4.8%. U.S. broiler export volumes destined to Mexico had increased YOY for 17 consecutive months from Dec ’13 – Apr ’15. Despite the recent declines, broiler export volumes to Mexico have accounted for over a fifth of total broiler export volumes over the past 12 months.
Jul ’15 U.S. broiler imports remained strong on a YOY basis, increasing by 7.0%. Broiler imports remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, with Jul ’15 imports amounting to only 2.0% of export volumes. Declining broiler exports, coupled with increasing imports, resulted in Jun ’15 net broiler trade declining YOY for the ninth time in the past ten months, finishing down 21.1% and also reaching a four and a half year low. Net broiler trade is down 9.0% YTD YOY through the first ten months of the ’14-’15 production season.
U.S. broiler export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3%. U.S. broiler import volumes have increased at a CAGR of 21.6% over the same time period but remain significantly lower. ’13-’14 annual broiler exports volumes were over 60 times as large as import volumes. Broiler export volumes have remained 55 times as large as import volumes throughout the first ten months of the ’14-’15 production season.
U.S. pork export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.2%, while U.S. pork imports have remained fairly flat, increasing at a CAGR of 0.3% over the same time period. ’13-’14 annual pork imports experienced much stronger growth, finishing 10.5% higher than the previous year, the largest YOY percentage gain in 11 years. Despite the increase in pork imports, ’13-’14 annual pork exports volumes remained over five times as large as import volumes. Pork export volumes have remained over four times as large as import volumes throughout the first ten months of the ’14-’15 production season.
Beef & Veal – Net Trade Remains Down Significantly YOY
Jul ’15 U.S. beef & veal export volumes remained weak, declining 12.7% YOY and 9.6% MOM on a daily average basis. Beef & veal export volumes have declined YOY for 13 consecutive months through July. Of the major export destinations, YOY declines in export volumes were led by combined volumes to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (-24.3%), followed by Japan (-23.0%), Mexico (-21.8%), and Canada (-10.2%). Export volumes to South Korea increased YOY for the sixth consecutive month, finishing 31.1% higher than the previous year. U.S. beef & veal exports to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 85% of all beef & veal export volumes in Jul ’15.
Jul ’15 U.S. beef & veal imports remained higher on a YOY basis, increasing by 9.6%, although imports did decline to a five month low on an absolute basis. Beef & veal import volumes have increased YOY for 17 consecutive months through Jul ’15, exceeding export volumes by 35.6% over the period. The Jul ’15 YOY increase in beef & veal imports of 9.6% was the lowest experienced over the 17 month period.
Recent strength in beef & veal imports resulted in ’13-’14 annual U.S. beef & veal imports finishing higher than annual U.S. beef & veal exports for the first time in four years, with this trend continuing into the ’14-’15 production season. Beef & veal net trade declined to a new seven and a half year low in Apr ’15.
Chicken – Net Trade Declines to Four and a Half Year Low on Weak Export Demand
Jul ’15 U.S. broiler export volumes remained weak declining 20.7% YOY and 13.9% MOM on a daily average basis to a new four and a half year low. Monthly export volumes have declined YOY throughout nine of the past ten months as the broiler export market continues to be negatively affected by the Russian import ban. Russia accounted for 8.2% of U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the ’12-’13 production season. Excluding Russia, Jun ’15 broiler export volumes remained down 17.7% YOY, however, as declines were also experienced in other major U.S. broiler import markets. Combined broiler export volumes to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China finished down 41.6% YOY, while broiler export volumes to Mexico declined YOY for the third consecutive month, finishing down 4.8%. U.S. broiler export volumes destined to Mexico had increased YOY for 17 consecutive months from Dec ’13 – Apr ’15. Despite the recent declines, broiler export volumes to Mexico have accounted for over a fifth of total broiler export volumes over the past 12 months.
Jul ’15 U.S. broiler imports remained strong on a YOY basis, increasing by 7.0%. Broiler imports remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, with Jul ’15 imports amounting to only 2.0% of export volumes. Declining broiler exports, coupled with increasing imports, resulted in Jun ’15 net broiler trade declining YOY for the ninth time in the past ten months, finishing down 21.1% and also reaching a four and a half year low. Net broiler trade is down 9.0% YTD YOY through the first ten months of the ’14-’15 production season.
U.S. broiler export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3%. U.S. broiler import volumes have increased at a CAGR of 21.6% over the same time period but remain significantly lower. ’13-’14 annual broiler exports volumes were over 60 times as large as import volumes. Broiler export volumes have remained 55 times as large as import volumes throughout the first ten months of the ’14-’15 production season.