U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Jan ’16
Pork – YOY Net Trade Remains Higher on Strong Exports
According to USDA, Nov ’15 U.S. pork export volumes increased 20.7% YOY and 10.4% MOM on a daily average basis to a new seven month high. YOY gains were experienced in shipments to all major U.S. pork importers and were led by product destined to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (+68.1%), followed by Mexico (+25.7%). YOY gains were also experienced in pork shipments destined to Japan (+15.4%), South Korea (+8.9%) and Canada (+2.7%). U.S. pork exports to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 80% of all pork export volumes during Nov ’15.
Nov ’15 U.S. pork imports also finished higher on a YOY basis, increasing by 11.5%. U.S. pork imports have increased YOY in 18 of the past 21 months through November. Nov ’15 U.S. net pork trade finished up 20.7% YOY and 10.4% MOM on a daily average as increases in export volumes continue to outweigh gains in import volumes. ’14-’15 annual net pork trade finished down 10.0% to a new five year low, however ’15-’16 net pork trade is up 16.9% YOY throughout the first two months of the production season.
U.S. pork export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.2%, while U.S. pork imports have remained fairly flat, increasing at a CAGR of 0.3% over the same time period. ’13-’14 annual pork imports experienced much stronger growth, finishing 10.5% higher than the previous year, the largest YOY percentage gain in 11 years. Despite the increase in pork imports, ’13-’14 annual pork exports volumes remained over five times as large as import volumes. Pork export volumes remained over four times as large as import volumes throughout the ’14-’15 production season despite declining to a five year low on an absolute basis.
Beef & Veal – Net Trade Finishes Positive for the First Time in 21 Months
Nov ’15 U.S. beef & veal export volumes increased 7.2% MOM on a daily average basis but remained lower on a YOY basis, finishing 0.9% below the previous year. Beef & veal export volumes have declined YOY for 14 consecutive months through November. Of the major export destinations, increases in beef & veal export volumes were experienced in Mexico (+11.8%), South Korea (+7.6%), Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (+7.5%) and Canada (+0.2%), however gains were more than offset by a 28.8% decline in export volumes destined to Japan. U.S. beef & veal exports to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 85% of all beef & veal export volumes in Nov ’15.
Oct ’15 U.S. beef & veal imports remained weak, declining by 26.6% YOY and 17.5% MOM on a daily average basis to a new 21 month low. Beef & veal import volumes had increased YOY for 19 consecutive months prior to the declines experienced in the most recent two months, exceeding export volumes by 38.6% over the period. The YOY decline in beef & veal imports outweighed the decline in export volumes, resulting in Nov ’15 net beef & veal trade finishing at a positive value for the first time in 21 months.
’13-’14 annual U.S. beef & veal imports finished higher than annual U.S. beef & veal exports for the first time in four years. This trend continued into the ’14-’15 production season as annual imports increased to a ten year high and beef & veal net trade declined to a new eight year low.
Chicken –Net Trade Declines to Ten Year Low for the Month of November
Nov ’15 U.S. broiler export volumes remained weak, declining 13.2% YOY and 2.1% MOM on a daily average basis. Monthly export volumes have declined YOY throughout 13 of the past 14 months as demand from several major U.S. broiler import markets remain weak. Combined broiler export volumes to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China finished down 3.8% YOY while broiler export volumes to Canada declined 0.9% YOY however shipments to Mexico increased YOY for the first time in seven month, finishing up 1.6%. Broiler export volumes to Mexico have accounted for nearly a quarter of the total broiler export volumes during Nov ’15. Other major YOY declines were experienced in shipments to Angola, Georgia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and South Korea.
Nov ’15 U.S. broiler imports continued to increase on a YOY basis, finishing up 6.6%. Broiler imports remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, with Nov ’15 imports amounting to only 2.2% of export volumes. Declining broiler exports, coupled with increasing imports, resulted in Nov ’15 net broiler trade declining YOY for the 13th time in the past 14 months, finishing down 13.6% and also reaching a ten year low for the month of November. Net broiler trade finished the ’14-’15 production season down 10.9% to a new five year low and is down an additional 17.6% throughout the first two months of the ’15-’16 production season.
U.S. broiler export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3%. U.S. broiler import volumes have increased at a CAGR of 21.6% over the same time period but remain significantly lower. ’13-’14 annual broiler exports volumes were over 60 times as large as import volumes. Broiler export volumes remained 54 times as large as import volumes throughout the ’14-’15 production season despite declining to a five year low on an absolute basis.
Combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers increased YOY for the first time in 20 months during Nov ’15 as increases in the net trade of pork and beef more than offset a decline in broiler net trade. Combined net trade of pork, beef and broilers declined by 21.4% YOY throughout the ’14-’15 production season.
U.S. pork export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.2%, while U.S. pork imports have remained fairly flat, increasing at a CAGR of 0.3% over the same time period. ’13-’14 annual pork imports experienced much stronger growth, finishing 10.5% higher than the previous year, the largest YOY percentage gain in 11 years. Despite the increase in pork imports, ’13-’14 annual pork exports volumes remained over five times as large as import volumes. Pork export volumes remained over four times as large as import volumes throughout the ’14-’15 production season despite declining to a five year low on an absolute basis.
Beef & Veal – Net Trade Finishes Positive for the First Time in 21 Months
Nov ’15 U.S. beef & veal export volumes increased 7.2% MOM on a daily average basis but remained lower on a YOY basis, finishing 0.9% below the previous year. Beef & veal export volumes have declined YOY for 14 consecutive months through November. Of the major export destinations, increases in beef & veal export volumes were experienced in Mexico (+11.8%), South Korea (+7.6%), Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (+7.5%) and Canada (+0.2%), however gains were more than offset by a 28.8% decline in export volumes destined to Japan. U.S. beef & veal exports to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 85% of all beef & veal export volumes in Nov ’15.
Oct ’15 U.S. beef & veal imports remained weak, declining by 26.6% YOY and 17.5% MOM on a daily average basis to a new 21 month low. Beef & veal import volumes had increased YOY for 19 consecutive months prior to the declines experienced in the most recent two months, exceeding export volumes by 38.6% over the period. The YOY decline in beef & veal imports outweighed the decline in export volumes, resulting in Nov ’15 net beef & veal trade finishing at a positive value for the first time in 21 months.
’13-’14 annual U.S. beef & veal imports finished higher than annual U.S. beef & veal exports for the first time in four years. This trend continued into the ’14-’15 production season as annual imports increased to a ten year high and beef & veal net trade declined to a new eight year low.
Chicken –Net Trade Declines to Ten Year Low for the Month of November
Nov ’15 U.S. broiler export volumes remained weak, declining 13.2% YOY and 2.1% MOM on a daily average basis. Monthly export volumes have declined YOY throughout 13 of the past 14 months as demand from several major U.S. broiler import markets remain weak. Combined broiler export volumes to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China finished down 3.8% YOY while broiler export volumes to Canada declined 0.9% YOY however shipments to Mexico increased YOY for the first time in seven month, finishing up 1.6%. Broiler export volumes to Mexico have accounted for nearly a quarter of the total broiler export volumes during Nov ’15. Other major YOY declines were experienced in shipments to Angola, Georgia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and South Korea.
Nov ’15 U.S. broiler imports continued to increase on a YOY basis, finishing up 6.6%. Broiler imports remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, with Nov ’15 imports amounting to only 2.2% of export volumes. Declining broiler exports, coupled with increasing imports, resulted in Nov ’15 net broiler trade declining YOY for the 13th time in the past 14 months, finishing down 13.6% and also reaching a ten year low for the month of November. Net broiler trade finished the ’14-’15 production season down 10.9% to a new five year low and is down an additional 17.6% throughout the first two months of the ’15-’16 production season.
U.S. broiler export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3%. U.S. broiler import volumes have increased at a CAGR of 21.6% over the same time period but remain significantly lower. ’13-’14 annual broiler exports volumes were over 60 times as large as import volumes. Broiler export volumes remained 54 times as large as import volumes throughout the ’14-’15 production season despite declining to a five year low on an absolute basis.
Combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers increased YOY for the first time in 20 months during Nov ’15 as increases in the net trade of pork and beef more than offset a decline in broiler net trade. Combined net trade of pork, beef and broilers declined by 21.4% YOY throughout the ’14-’15 production season.