U.S. Livestock Cold Storage Update – Jan ’16
Pork – Stocks Remain Higher on YOY Basis, Finish up 8.3%
According to USDA, Dec ’15 U.S. frozen pork stocks of 545.6 million pounds declined by 2.7% MOM but remained 8.3% higher YOY. Pork stocks have increased YOY for 11 month in a row after 11 consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Jan ’15. The MOM decline of 15.3 million pounds, or 2.7%, was larger than the ten year average November – December seasonal decline in stocks of 2.5 million lbs, or 0.6%, however Dec ’15 pork stocks remained 1.7% higher than the three year average December pork stocks.
Beef – Stocks Increase to New Three and a Half Year High, Finish up 15.6% YOY
Dec ’15 U.S. frozen beef stocks of 513.9 million pounds increased 0.6% MOM and 15.6% YOY, finishing at a 13 year high for the month of December. The monthly YOY increase in beef stocks was the 13th experienced in a row after nine consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Nov ’14. The MOM increase in beef stocks of 3.3 million pounds, or 0.6%, was slightly less than the ten year average November – December increase in beef stocks of 6.3 million pounds, or 1.6%, however stocks remained at a three and a half year high on an absolute basis. Dec ’15 beef stocks finished 14.2% higher than the three year average December beef stocks.
Chicken – Stocks Finish at a Ten Year High for the Month of December, up 21.0% YOY
Dec ’15 U.S. frozen chicken stocks of 862.1 million pounds declined 2.2% MOM but remained 21.0% higher YOY, finishing at a ten year high for the month of December. Chicken stocks increased YOY for the 13th month in a row after nine consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Nov ’14. The MOM decrease in chicken stocks of 19.8 million pounds, or 2.2%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average November – December seasonal increase in stocks of 5.8 million pounds, or 0.7%, however stocks remained at the second largest level experienced in the past nine and a half years on an absolute basis. Stocks have built as the Russian import ban continues to negatively affect U.S. broiler exports. U.S. broiler export volumes have declined by 10.7% YOY since the ban was announced. Dec ’15 chicken stocks finished 23.9% higher than the three year average December chicken stocks.
Overall, combined Dec ’15 U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished just 2.4% below the monthly record high experienced in Oct ’15. Individually, Dec ’15 U.S. beef and chicken stocks finished above 90% of historical maximum storage levels, while pork stocks were also relatively high, finishing above 75% of historical maximum storage levels.
Combined Dec ’15 pork, beef and chicken stocks finished at a record high level for the month of December. Individually, Dec ’15 U.S. pork and beef stocks finished within two percent of historical maximum storage levels for the month of December, while chicken stocks finished within seven percent of historical December maximum storage levels.
According to USDA, Dec ’15 U.S. frozen pork stocks of 545.6 million pounds declined by 2.7% MOM but remained 8.3% higher YOY. Pork stocks have increased YOY for 11 month in a row after 11 consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Jan ’15. The MOM decline of 15.3 million pounds, or 2.7%, was larger than the ten year average November – December seasonal decline in stocks of 2.5 million lbs, or 0.6%, however Dec ’15 pork stocks remained 1.7% higher than the three year average December pork stocks.
Beef – Stocks Increase to New Three and a Half Year High, Finish up 15.6% YOY
Dec ’15 U.S. frozen beef stocks of 513.9 million pounds increased 0.6% MOM and 15.6% YOY, finishing at a 13 year high for the month of December. The monthly YOY increase in beef stocks was the 13th experienced in a row after nine consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Nov ’14. The MOM increase in beef stocks of 3.3 million pounds, or 0.6%, was slightly less than the ten year average November – December increase in beef stocks of 6.3 million pounds, or 1.6%, however stocks remained at a three and a half year high on an absolute basis. Dec ’15 beef stocks finished 14.2% higher than the three year average December beef stocks.
Chicken – Stocks Finish at a Ten Year High for the Month of December, up 21.0% YOY
Dec ’15 U.S. frozen chicken stocks of 862.1 million pounds declined 2.2% MOM but remained 21.0% higher YOY, finishing at a ten year high for the month of December. Chicken stocks increased YOY for the 13th month in a row after nine consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Nov ’14. The MOM decrease in chicken stocks of 19.8 million pounds, or 2.2%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average November – December seasonal increase in stocks of 5.8 million pounds, or 0.7%, however stocks remained at the second largest level experienced in the past nine and a half years on an absolute basis. Stocks have built as the Russian import ban continues to negatively affect U.S. broiler exports. U.S. broiler export volumes have declined by 10.7% YOY since the ban was announced. Dec ’15 chicken stocks finished 23.9% higher than the three year average December chicken stocks.
Overall, combined Dec ’15 U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished just 2.4% below the monthly record high experienced in Oct ’15. Individually, Dec ’15 U.S. beef and chicken stocks finished above 90% of historical maximum storage levels, while pork stocks were also relatively high, finishing above 75% of historical maximum storage levels.
Combined Dec ’15 pork, beef and chicken stocks finished at a record high level for the month of December. Individually, Dec ’15 U.S. pork and beef stocks finished within two percent of historical maximum storage levels for the month of December, while chicken stocks finished within seven percent of historical December maximum storage levels.