U.S. Dairy Cow Slaughter Update – May ’16
According to USDA, Apr ’16 U.S. dairy cow slaughter of 227,000 head declined 7.8% MOM while also declining 4.5% YOY when normalized for slaughter days. U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates have declined seasonally by an average of 5.8% MOM when normalized for slaughter days from March – April over the past ten years. Despite the decline, ’15-’16 YTD dairy cow slaughter remains even with previous year figures throughout the first seven months of the production season.
The monthly YOY decline in dairy cow slaughter was the largest experienced in the past eight months on a percentage basis. Declining slaughter rates contributed to the U.S. milk cow herd reaching a seven year high during Apr ’16. The total U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.331 million head, which is 15,000 head more than April of last year.
The most significant MOM decline in dairy cow slaughter was exhibited in Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada), followed by Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas). Figures for Standard Federal Region 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin) were withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operators.
The largest YOY declines in dairy cow slaughter were also exhibited in Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada) and Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas).
Dairy cow slaughter within Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas) continued to decline from the monthly record high experienced in Jan ’16, finishing down 14.3% MOM and 2.5% YOY. Monthly slaughter rates had reached record high levels as effects from Winter Storm Goliath were experienced, however slaughter levels have declined by a total of 39.2% throughout the past three months.
Dairy cow slaughter within Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada) declined 13.7% MOM and 10.5% YOY when normalized for slaughter days. The YOY decline was the largest experienced in 19 months on a percentage basis. ’15-’16 YTD dairy cow slaughter is down 1.6% YOY throughout the first seven months of the production season within Standard Federal Region 9.