EU-28 Milk Production Update – Jun ’16
Executive Summary
EU-28 milk production figures provided by Eurostat were recently updated with values spanning through Apr ’16. Highlights from the updated report include:
• EU-28 milk production increased on a YOY basis for the 13th consecutive month during Apr ’16, finishing up 1.6%. The Apr ’16 YOY growth rate was the lowest experienced in the past 12 months, however.
• YOY production gains continue to be led by the Netherlands, followed by Germany and Italy, while production declined on a YOY basis in France, the United Kingdom and Ireland during Apr ’16.
• Production continued to increase on a YOY basis despite slaughter rates continuing to trend higher. Mar ’16 EU-28 bovine slaughter rates increased on a YOY basis for the eighth time in the past ten months, finishing up 1.4%.
Additional Report Details
According to Eurostat, Apr ’16 EU-28 milk production increased YOY for the 13th consecutive month, finishing 1.6% above the previous year. Apr ’16 production levels were the largest on record for the month of April. The recent YOY increases in production have corresponded with the expiration of the EU-28 milk production quota system at the end of Mar ’15.
Monthly production growth had decelerated throughout the final months of the ’14-’15 production season as over-quota producers attempted to limit superlevy penalties for exceeding milk production quota levels. EU-28 milk production growth decelerated from Sep ’14 – Mar ’15 but has rebounded throughout the ’15-’16 production season in the post-quota environment. The Apr ’16 YOY growth rate of 1.6% was the lowest experienced in the past 12 months but is in addition to the post-quota production levels experienced during Apr ’15. Overall, annual ’15-’16 EU-28 milk production finished 4.0% higher YOY during the first year in the post-quota production environment.
YOY increases in production continue to be led by the Netherlands (+118,600 MT), followed by Germany (+63,350 MT) and Italy (+33,110 MT). The aforementioned countries accounted for over a third of the total monthly EU-28 milk production and the vast majority of the YOY production gains experienced during Apr ’16. Milk production within France and the United Kingdom declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Apr ’16, finishing down 1.1% and 3.4%, respectively, while Ireland milk production finished down 4.1% YOY. YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Cyprus (+24.6%), followed by Luxembourg (+14.6%) and Bulgaria (+13.9%) while declines on a percentage basis were most significant in Portugal (-6.2%), Ireland (-4.1%) and the United Kingdom (-3.4%).
All ten of the top milk producing Member States with the exception of France, the United Kingdom and Ireland experienced YOY gains in milk production during Apr ’16, increasing by a weighted average of 1.6% YOY. The top ten EU-28 milk producing Member States accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production throughout the month. Overall, 21 of the 28 EU-28 member states experienced YOY increases in production volumes during Apr ’16.
Mar ’16 EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter was flat MOM on a daily average basis but finished 1.4% higher YOY. YOY increases in beef & dairy cow slaughter were led by the United Kingdom, followed by Spain, Romania and the Netherlands.
EU-28 bovine slaughter rates increased sharply prior to quota expiration, finishing up 9.9% YOY in Mar ‘15 as producers attempted to limit superlevy penalties. Bovine slaughter has finished higher on a YOY basis over eight of the past ten months through Mar ’16. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to be marginally lower throughout 2016 but recent culling is expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled. Total EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter is up 1.3% YOY throughout the first 11 months of the ’15-’16 production season.
Monthly production growth had decelerated throughout the final months of the ’14-’15 production season as over-quota producers attempted to limit superlevy penalties for exceeding milk production quota levels. EU-28 milk production growth decelerated from Sep ’14 – Mar ’15 but has rebounded throughout the ’15-’16 production season in the post-quota environment. The Apr ’16 YOY growth rate of 1.6% was the lowest experienced in the past 12 months but is in addition to the post-quota production levels experienced during Apr ’15. Overall, annual ’15-’16 EU-28 milk production finished 4.0% higher YOY during the first year in the post-quota production environment.
YOY increases in production continue to be led by the Netherlands (+118,600 MT), followed by Germany (+63,350 MT) and Italy (+33,110 MT). The aforementioned countries accounted for over a third of the total monthly EU-28 milk production and the vast majority of the YOY production gains experienced during Apr ’16. Milk production within France and the United Kingdom declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Apr ’16, finishing down 1.1% and 3.4%, respectively, while Ireland milk production finished down 4.1% YOY. YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Cyprus (+24.6%), followed by Luxembourg (+14.6%) and Bulgaria (+13.9%) while declines on a percentage basis were most significant in Portugal (-6.2%), Ireland (-4.1%) and the United Kingdom (-3.4%).
All ten of the top milk producing Member States with the exception of France, the United Kingdom and Ireland experienced YOY gains in milk production during Apr ’16, increasing by a weighted average of 1.6% YOY. The top ten EU-28 milk producing Member States accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production throughout the month. Overall, 21 of the 28 EU-28 member states experienced YOY increases in production volumes during Apr ’16.
Mar ’16 EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter was flat MOM on a daily average basis but finished 1.4% higher YOY. YOY increases in beef & dairy cow slaughter were led by the United Kingdom, followed by Spain, Romania and the Netherlands.
EU-28 bovine slaughter rates increased sharply prior to quota expiration, finishing up 9.9% YOY in Mar ‘15 as producers attempted to limit superlevy penalties. Bovine slaughter has finished higher on a YOY basis over eight of the past ten months through Mar ’16. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to be marginally lower throughout 2016 but recent culling is expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled. Total EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter is up 1.3% YOY throughout the first 11 months of the ’15-’16 production season.