U.S. Dairy Cow Slaughter Update – Jul ’16
According to USDA, Jun ’16 U.S. dairy cow slaughter of 223,700 head declined 0.1% MOM but finished 1.0% higher YOY when normalized for slaughter days. The YOY increase in U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates was the first experienced in the past four months however slaughter rates declined to a 12 month low when normalized for slaughter days, as slaughter rates typically reach seasonal lows during the month of June. U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates have declined seasonally by an average of 2.3% MOM when normalized for slaughter days from May – June over the past ten years.
’15-’16 YTD dairy cow slaughter remains down 0.1% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season as rates have fallen 2.4% below the previous year levels over the past four months. Declining slaughter rates contributed to the U.S. milk cow herd remaining at the second highest figure experienced throughout the past seven and a half years during Jun ’16. The total U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.328 million head, which is 5,000 head more than June of last year.
The most significant MOM decline in dairy cow slaughter was exhibited in Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada) while slaughter rates increased most significantly on a MOM basis in Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas). Figures for Standard Federal Region 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin) were withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operators.
The largest YOY declines in dairy cow slaughter were exhibited in Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas) while slaughter increased most significantly on a YOY basis within Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada).
Dairy cow slaughter within Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas) increased 6.8% MOM but remained 13.2% lower YOY. Monthly slaughter rates had reached record high levels during Jan ’16 as effects from Winter Storm Goliath were experienced, however slaughter levels have declined by a total of 11.9% YOY throughout the past four months.
Dairy cow slaughter within Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada) declined 3.5% MOM but remained 6.9% higher YOY when normalized for slaughter days. The YOY increase was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced in the past nine months on a percentage basis. ’15-’16 YTD dairy cow slaughter remains down 0.1% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season within Standard Federal Region 9, despite the most YOY increase.