U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Aug ’16
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jun ’16. Highlights from the updated report include:
• Jun ’16 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products increased 1.8% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 2.8% YOY on a skim-solids basis, each finishing at new record high values for the month of June.
• Jun ’16 butter, cheese, dry whey and whey protein concentrate disappearance figures each finished higher on a YOY basis throughout the month, however combined nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder disappearance finished lower for the fifth time in the past six months.
• U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the tenth time in the past 12 months during Jun ’16, as sales of fat-free milk remained particularly weak.
Additional Report Details
All Milk – Disappearance Finishes at Record June Highs on both a Milk-Fat and Skim-Solids Basis
According to USDA, Jun ’16 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products increased 1.8% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 2.8% YOY on a skim-solids basis, each finishing at new record high values for the month of June. Export demand increased on a milk-fat basis for the first time in two years, finishing up 5.0% YOY, while export demand on a skim-solids basis increased 3.6% YOY. Domestic demand on a milk-fat and skim-solids basis increased 1.7% and 5.4% YOY, respectively, throughout the month.
Butter – Disappearance Remains Higher on a YOY Basis, Finishes up 1.0%
Jun ’16 U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 12.8% MOM on a daily average basis while also remaining higher on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month, finishing 1.0% above the previous year consumption level. Jun ’16 domestic butter demand finished up 1.8% YOY, more than offsetting a 40.8% YOY decline in international demand. ’14-’15 annual U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 4.6% YOY to a three year low as a 74.8% decline in export volumes more than offset a 2.3% increase in domestic demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. butter disappearance has rebounded by 3.0% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Jun ’16 U.S. butter production and import volumes slightly outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in an increase in stocks for the seventh consecutive month.
Cheese – Disappearance Remains Higher on a YOY Basis, Reaches June Record High
Jun ’16 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 5.5% MOM on a daily average basis from the 12 month low experienced during the previous month while also increasing 3.9% on a YOY basis, finishing at a record high for the month of June. YOY increases in cheese disappearance have been exhibited over 12 consecutive months through Jun ’16. Other-than-American cheese disappearance increased by 3.7% YOY throughout the month while American cheese disappearance finished 4.2% higher. Domestic cheese demand increased 4.8% YOY however export demand remained weak, declining 11.8% YOY. Cheese export volumes have declined YOY for 21 consecutive months while domestic demand has increased YOY for 22 consecutive months through June. ’14-’15 annual U.S. cheese commercial disappearance finished up 2.1% YOY to a new record annual high as a 3.4% increase in domestic demand more than offset a 14.1% decline in export demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. cheese disappearance is up an additional 2.7% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Jun ’16 U.S. cheese production and import volumes slightly outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in an increase in stocks for the sixth consecutive month.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Reaches Two and a Half Year High, Finishes up 9.6% YOY
Jun ’16 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 21.2% MOM on a daily average basis and 9.6% YOY, finishing at a two and a half year high. Domestic dry whey demand increased 19.8% YOY, more than offsetting a 2.5% decline in export volumes. Dry whey export volumes have declined on a YOY basis over 24 of the past 25 months through Jun ’16. ’14-’15 annual U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 0.4% YOY as a 24.6% increase in domestic demand more than offset an 18.0% decline in export demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. dry whey disappearance is up an additional 8.3% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Jun ’16 U.S. dry whey total disappearance outpaced production and import volumes, resulting in a sharp decline in stocks. Dry whey stocks finished at a three month low during Jun ’16.
WPC – Disappearance Increases on a YOY Basis for the Second Consecutive Month, Finishes up 11.6%
Jun ’16 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 8.5% MOM on a daily average basis but remaining higher on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, finishing up 11.6%. Domestic WPC demand declined 54.5% YOY throughout the month, however the decline was more than offset by a 98.7% increase in export volumes. ’14-’15 annual U.S. WPC commercial disappearance declined 6.1% YOY on lower domestic and export demand however ’15-’16 YTD U.S. WPC disappearance has rebounded by 3.1% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Jun ’16 U.S. WPC disappearance outpaced production and import volumes, resulting in a decline in stocks for the second consecutive month.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Finishes Lower on a YOY Basis for the Fifth Time in the Past Six Months
Jun ’16 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 15.7% MOM on a daily average basis while also finishing lower on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past six months, declining by 2.9%. U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic disappearance increased on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during Jun ’16, finishing up 3.5%, however the increase in domestic disappearance was more than offset by an 8.9% decline in export volumes. ’14-’15 annual U.S. NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance finished up 2.9% YOY as a 14.8% increase in domestic demand more than offset a 6.1% decline in export demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. NFDM/SMP disappearance is down 1.0% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season as export volumes remain lower.
Jun ’16 U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import volumes outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in an increase in stocks for the third time in the past four months.
Fluid Milk Sales – Fat-Free Sales Continue to Weigh Down Overall Figures, Total Milk Sales Down 1.4%
Jun ’16 U.S. fluid milk sales of 3.78 billion pounds declined on a YOY basis for the tenth time in the past 12 months, finishing down 1.4%. U.S. fluid milk sales also declined by 3.6% MOM on a daily average basis, finishing at the second lowest value on record. Sales of whole milk remained strong, finishing up 4.7% YOY, while fat-free milk sales declined 12.9% YOY. ’14-’15 annual U.S. total fluid milk sales finished down 1.8% YOY to the lowest annual figure on record. Annual whole milk sales finished up 2.2% however annual fat-free milk sales declined 10.8% throughout the year. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. fluid milk sales are down an additional 0.9% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Overall, Jun ’16 YOY increases in domestic commercial disappearance were widespread and led by dry whey. YOY increases in international disappearance were experienced on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis for the first time in four months, driven higher by strong WPC disappearance, but remained lower for butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM/SMP.
Butter – Disappearance Remains Higher on a YOY Basis, Finishes up 1.0%
Jun ’16 U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 12.8% MOM on a daily average basis while also remaining higher on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month, finishing 1.0% above the previous year consumption level. Jun ’16 domestic butter demand finished up 1.8% YOY, more than offsetting a 40.8% YOY decline in international demand. ’14-’15 annual U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 4.6% YOY to a three year low as a 74.8% decline in export volumes more than offset a 2.3% increase in domestic demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. butter disappearance has rebounded by 3.0% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Jun ’16 U.S. butter production and import volumes slightly outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in an increase in stocks for the seventh consecutive month.
Cheese – Disappearance Remains Higher on a YOY Basis, Reaches June Record High
Jun ’16 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 5.5% MOM on a daily average basis from the 12 month low experienced during the previous month while also increasing 3.9% on a YOY basis, finishing at a record high for the month of June. YOY increases in cheese disappearance have been exhibited over 12 consecutive months through Jun ’16. Other-than-American cheese disappearance increased by 3.7% YOY throughout the month while American cheese disappearance finished 4.2% higher. Domestic cheese demand increased 4.8% YOY however export demand remained weak, declining 11.8% YOY. Cheese export volumes have declined YOY for 21 consecutive months while domestic demand has increased YOY for 22 consecutive months through June. ’14-’15 annual U.S. cheese commercial disappearance finished up 2.1% YOY to a new record annual high as a 3.4% increase in domestic demand more than offset a 14.1% decline in export demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. cheese disappearance is up an additional 2.7% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Jun ’16 U.S. cheese production and import volumes slightly outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in an increase in stocks for the sixth consecutive month.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Reaches Two and a Half Year High, Finishes up 9.6% YOY
Jun ’16 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 21.2% MOM on a daily average basis and 9.6% YOY, finishing at a two and a half year high. Domestic dry whey demand increased 19.8% YOY, more than offsetting a 2.5% decline in export volumes. Dry whey export volumes have declined on a YOY basis over 24 of the past 25 months through Jun ’16. ’14-’15 annual U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 0.4% YOY as a 24.6% increase in domestic demand more than offset an 18.0% decline in export demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. dry whey disappearance is up an additional 8.3% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Jun ’16 U.S. dry whey total disappearance outpaced production and import volumes, resulting in a sharp decline in stocks. Dry whey stocks finished at a three month low during Jun ’16.
WPC – Disappearance Increases on a YOY Basis for the Second Consecutive Month, Finishes up 11.6%
Jun ’16 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 8.5% MOM on a daily average basis but remaining higher on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, finishing up 11.6%. Domestic WPC demand declined 54.5% YOY throughout the month, however the decline was more than offset by a 98.7% increase in export volumes. ’14-’15 annual U.S. WPC commercial disappearance declined 6.1% YOY on lower domestic and export demand however ’15-’16 YTD U.S. WPC disappearance has rebounded by 3.1% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Jun ’16 U.S. WPC disappearance outpaced production and import volumes, resulting in a decline in stocks for the second consecutive month.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Finishes Lower on a YOY Basis for the Fifth Time in the Past Six Months
Jun ’16 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 15.7% MOM on a daily average basis while also finishing lower on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past six months, declining by 2.9%. U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic disappearance increased on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during Jun ’16, finishing up 3.5%, however the increase in domestic disappearance was more than offset by an 8.9% decline in export volumes. ’14-’15 annual U.S. NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance finished up 2.9% YOY as a 14.8% increase in domestic demand more than offset a 6.1% decline in export demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. NFDM/SMP disappearance is down 1.0% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season as export volumes remain lower.
Jun ’16 U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import volumes outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in an increase in stocks for the third time in the past four months.
Fluid Milk Sales – Fat-Free Sales Continue to Weigh Down Overall Figures, Total Milk Sales Down 1.4%
Jun ’16 U.S. fluid milk sales of 3.78 billion pounds declined on a YOY basis for the tenth time in the past 12 months, finishing down 1.4%. U.S. fluid milk sales also declined by 3.6% MOM on a daily average basis, finishing at the second lowest value on record. Sales of whole milk remained strong, finishing up 4.7% YOY, while fat-free milk sales declined 12.9% YOY. ’14-’15 annual U.S. total fluid milk sales finished down 1.8% YOY to the lowest annual figure on record. Annual whole milk sales finished up 2.2% however annual fat-free milk sales declined 10.8% throughout the year. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. fluid milk sales are down an additional 0.9% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Overall, Jun ’16 YOY increases in domestic commercial disappearance were widespread and led by dry whey. YOY increases in international disappearance were experienced on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis for the first time in four months, driven higher by strong WPC disappearance, but remained lower for butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM/SMP.