U.S. Dairy Cow Slaughter Update – Aug ’16
According to USDA, Jul ’16 U.S. dairy cow slaughter of 213,300 head increased 1.7% MOM from the 12 month low experienced in Jun ’16 but finished 2.7% lower YOY when normalized for slaughter days. The YOY decline in U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates was the fourth experienced in the past five months while the seasonal increase in slaughter of 1.7% was less than the ten year average June – July increase of 4.1%.
’15-’16 YTD dairy cow slaughter is down 0.3% YOY throughout the first ten months of the production season as rates have fallen 2.4% below the previous year levels over the past five months. Declining slaughter rates contributed to the U.S. milk cow herd finishing at the highest figure experienced throughout the past seven and a half years during Jul ’16. The total U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.332 million head, which is 18,000 head more than July of last year.
The most significant MOM increase in dairy cow slaughter was exhibited in Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas) while slaughter rates declined most significantly on a MOM basis in Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada). Figures for Standard Federal Region 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin) were withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operators.
The largest YOY decline in dairy cow slaughter was exhibited in Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas), followed by Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada) while slaughter increased most significantly on a YOY basis within Standard Federal Region 3 (Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia).
Dairy cow slaughter within Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas) increased 5.8% MOM but remained 15.3% lower YOY. Monthly slaughter rates had reached record high levels during Jan ’16 as effects from Winter Storm Goliath were experienced, however slaughter levels have declined by a total of 12.5% YOY throughout the past five months.
Dairy cow slaughter within Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada) declined 5.4% MOM and 4.3% YOY when normalized for slaughter days. The YOY decline was the first experienced throughout the past three months. ’15-’16 YTD dairy cow slaughter is down 0.5% YOY throughout the first ten months of the production season within Standard Federal Region 9, consistent with the overall decline in U.S. dairy cow slaughter.