U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Sep ’16
Executive Summary
U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jul ’16. Highlights from the updated report include:
• Net pork trade finished higher on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Jul ’16, finishing up 0.8%.
• Net beef & veal trade remained negative for the seventh consecutive month during Jul ’16, despite import volumes declining on a YOY basis for the tenth consecutive month.
• Net broiler trade increased on a YOY basis for the first time in five months during Jul ’16, finishing 12.0% above the previous year.
Additional Report Details
Pork – Net Trade Finishes Higher on a YOY Basis for the Third Consecutive Month
According to USDA, Jul ’16 U.S. pork export volumes declined 12.9% MOM on a daily average basis but remained higher on a YOY basis, finishing up 1.9%. Of the major export destinations, YOY increases in export volumes were led by combined shipments to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (+65.0%), followed by shipments destined to Canada (+0.9%). The YOY increases in shipments to China and Canada more than offset YOY declines in U.S. pork exports volumes destined to Mexico (-10.1%), Japan (-5.6%) and South Korea (-0.8%). U.S. pork export volumes destined to the aforementioned countries accounted for 85% of all pork export volumes during Jul ’16.
U.S. pork import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the second time in three months during Jul ’16, finishing up 6.0%. The increase in pork imports was not enough to offset the rise in export volumes, resulted in Jul ’16 U.S. net pork trade finishing up 0.8% YOY. Net pork trade has increased on a YOY basis for three consecutive months through July. ’14-’15 annual net pork trade finished down 10.7% to a new five year low, however ’15-’16 net pork trade has rebounded by 1.1% YOY throughout the first ten months of the production season.
U.S. pork export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past ten years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7%, while U.S. pork imports have remained fairly flat, increasing at a CAGR of 0.9% over the same time period. ’14-’15 annual pork imports experienced much stronger growth, finishing 18.2% higher than the previous year, the largest YOY percentage gain experienced in the past 16 years. Despite the increase in pork imports, ’14-’15 annual pork exports volumes remained over four times as large as import volumes, despite declining to a four year low on an absolute basis.
Beef & Veal – Net Trade Remains Negative for the Seventh Consecutive Month
According to USDA, Jul ’16 U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined 1.8% MOM on a daily average basis from the 12 month high experienced throughout the previous month but finished higher on a YOY basis, increasing by 8.0%. Of the major export destinations, YOY increases in export volumes were led by shipments destined to South Korea (+36.3%), followed by shipments destined to Mexico (+23.6%), Japan (+5.6%) and combined shipments to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (+1.3%). The YOY increases more than offset declines in export volumes destined to Canada (-22.3%). U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 85% of all beef & veal export volumes during Jul ’16.
Jul ’16 U.S. beef & veal import volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the tenth consecutive month, finishing down 6.8%. Despite the YOY declines, beef & veal import volumes continue to exceed export volumes, resulting in Jul ’16 net beef & veal trade remaining negative for the seventh consecutive month.
’14-’15 annual U.S. beef & veal imports finished higher than annual U.S. beef & veal exports for the second consecutive year as annual import volumes increased to a ten year high and export volumes declined to a five year low. Overall, net beef & veal trade reached an eight low year during the ’14-’15 production season.
Chicken –Net Broiler Trade Increases on a YOY Basis for the First Time in Five Months
Jul ’16 U.S. broiler export volumes increased 8.9% MOM on a daily average basis while also finishing higher on a YOY basis for the first time in five month, increasing by 11.8%. Of the major export destinations, YOY increases in broiler export volumes were led by combined shipments destined to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (+50.0%), although broiler export volumes destined to Mexico (-18.0%) and Canada (-16.6%) declined for the second consecutive month.
U.S. broiler import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Jul ’16, finishing down 1.8%. Broiler import volumes remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, with Jul ’16 imports amounting to less than 2.0% of export volumes. The YOY increase in broiler export volumes, coupled with the YOY decline in import volumes, resulted in U.S. broiler net trade finishing up 12.0% YOY during Jul ’16. Net broiler trade declined 10.9% throughout the ’14-’15 production season and remains down an additional 7.4% throughout the first ten months of the ’15-’16 production season, despite the most recent YOY gain.
U.S. broiler import volumes have increased by a CAGR of 11.7% over the past ten years, larger than the 2.1% CAGR in broiler export volumes experienced over the same period. U.S. broiler import volumes remain significantly lower than export volumes on an absolute basis, however, as ’14-’15 annual broiler exports volumes finished over 50 times as large as import volumes throughout the year. Broiler export volumes remain significantly higher than import volumes despite declining to a five year low on an absolute basis throughout the ’14-’15 production season.
Combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers increased on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past nine months during Jul ’16. Combined net trade of pork, beef and broilers had declined over 18 consecutive months from May ’14 – Oct ’15 and finished down 21.5% YOY throughout the ’14-’15 production season.
U.S. pork export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past ten years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7%, while U.S. pork imports have remained fairly flat, increasing at a CAGR of 0.9% over the same time period. ’14-’15 annual pork imports experienced much stronger growth, finishing 18.2% higher than the previous year, the largest YOY percentage gain experienced in the past 16 years. Despite the increase in pork imports, ’14-’15 annual pork exports volumes remained over four times as large as import volumes, despite declining to a four year low on an absolute basis.
Beef & Veal – Net Trade Remains Negative for the Seventh Consecutive Month
According to USDA, Jul ’16 U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined 1.8% MOM on a daily average basis from the 12 month high experienced throughout the previous month but finished higher on a YOY basis, increasing by 8.0%. Of the major export destinations, YOY increases in export volumes were led by shipments destined to South Korea (+36.3%), followed by shipments destined to Mexico (+23.6%), Japan (+5.6%) and combined shipments to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (+1.3%). The YOY increases more than offset declines in export volumes destined to Canada (-22.3%). U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 85% of all beef & veal export volumes during Jul ’16.
Jul ’16 U.S. beef & veal import volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the tenth consecutive month, finishing down 6.8%. Despite the YOY declines, beef & veal import volumes continue to exceed export volumes, resulting in Jul ’16 net beef & veal trade remaining negative for the seventh consecutive month.
’14-’15 annual U.S. beef & veal imports finished higher than annual U.S. beef & veal exports for the second consecutive year as annual import volumes increased to a ten year high and export volumes declined to a five year low. Overall, net beef & veal trade reached an eight low year during the ’14-’15 production season.
Chicken –Net Broiler Trade Increases on a YOY Basis for the First Time in Five Months
Jul ’16 U.S. broiler export volumes increased 8.9% MOM on a daily average basis while also finishing higher on a YOY basis for the first time in five month, increasing by 11.8%. Of the major export destinations, YOY increases in broiler export volumes were led by combined shipments destined to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (+50.0%), although broiler export volumes destined to Mexico (-18.0%) and Canada (-16.6%) declined for the second consecutive month.
U.S. broiler import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Jul ’16, finishing down 1.8%. Broiler import volumes remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, with Jul ’16 imports amounting to less than 2.0% of export volumes. The YOY increase in broiler export volumes, coupled with the YOY decline in import volumes, resulted in U.S. broiler net trade finishing up 12.0% YOY during Jul ’16. Net broiler trade declined 10.9% throughout the ’14-’15 production season and remains down an additional 7.4% throughout the first ten months of the ’15-’16 production season, despite the most recent YOY gain.
U.S. broiler import volumes have increased by a CAGR of 11.7% over the past ten years, larger than the 2.1% CAGR in broiler export volumes experienced over the same period. U.S. broiler import volumes remain significantly lower than export volumes on an absolute basis, however, as ’14-’15 annual broiler exports volumes finished over 50 times as large as import volumes throughout the year. Broiler export volumes remain significantly higher than import volumes despite declining to a five year low on an absolute basis throughout the ’14-’15 production season.
Combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers increased on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past nine months during Jul ’16. Combined net trade of pork, beef and broilers had declined over 18 consecutive months from May ’14 – Oct ’15 and finished down 21.5% YOY throughout the ’14-’15 production season.