U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Sep ’16
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jul ’16. Highlights from the updated report include:
• Jul ’16 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products remained higher on a YOY basis, finishing up 0.3% on a milk-fat basis and 0.6% on a skim-solids basis.
• Jul ’16 butter, cheese and dry whey disappearance figures each finished higher on a YOY basis as increases in domestic demand were experienced. Whey protein concentrate and combined nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder disappearance finished lower throughout the month, however, despite increases in export volumes.
• U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the tenth time in the past 12 months during Jun ’16, as sales of fat-free milk remained particularly weak.
Additional Report Details
All Milk – Disappearance Remains Higher YOY on both a Milk-Fat and Skim-Solids Basis
According to USDA, Jul ’16 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products declined seasonally but remained 0.3% higher YOY on a milk-fat basis and 0.6% higher YOY on a skim-solids basis. Total disappearance on a milk-fat basis finished at the second highest July figure on record while disappearance on a skim-solids basis finished at a new record high for the month of July. Domestic demand was flat on a milk-fat basis while declining for the first time in six months on a skim-solids basis however export demand finished higher for the second consecutive month during Jul ’16, offsetting the weak domestic demand.
Butter – Disappearance Remains Higher on a YOY Basis, Finishes up 0.9%
Jul ’16 U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 10.5% MOM on a daily average basis but remained higher on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past seven months, finishing 0.9% above the previous year consumption level. Jul ’16 domestic butter demand finished up 2.0% YOY, more than offsetting a 40.7% YOY decline in international demand. ’14-’15 annual U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 5.1% YOY to a three year low as a 74.8% decline in export volumes more than offset a 1.8% increase in domestic demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. butter disappearance has rebounded by 2.6% YOY throughout the first ten months of the production season.
Jul ’16 U.S. butter production and import volumes slightly outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in an increase in stocks for the eighth consecutive month.
Cheese – Disappearance Remains Higher on a YOY Basis, Reaches July Record High
Jul ’16 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 3.0% MOM on a daily average basis but remained higher on a YOY basis, increasing 0.5% to a record high for the month of July. YOY increases in cheese disappearance have been exhibited over 13 consecutive months through Jul ’16. Other-than-American cheese disappearance increased by 1.3% YOY throughout the month more than offsetting a 0.8% YOY decline in American cheese disappearance. Domestic cheese demand increased 0.9% YOY however export demand remained weak, declining 5.9% YOY. Cheese export volumes have declined YOY for 22 consecutive months while domestic demand has increased YOY for 23 consecutive months through July. ’14-’15 annual U.S. cheese commercial disappearance finished up 2.1% YOY to a new record annual high as a 3.4% increase in domestic demand more than offset a 13.9% decline in export demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. cheese disappearance is up an additional 2.5% YOY throughout the first ten months of the production season.
Jul ’16 U.S. cheese production and import volumes slightly outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in an increase in stocks for the seventh consecutive month.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Remains Higher on a YOY Basis, Finishes up 9.6%
Jul ’16 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 9.1% MOM on a daily average basis from the two and a half year high experienced during the previous month but remained higher on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing up 9.6% YOY. Domestic dry whey demand increased 16.6% YOY while export volumes increased by 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month. The YOY increase in dry whey export volumes was only the second experienced throughout the past 24 months. ’14-’15 annual U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 0.4% YOY as a 24.7% increase in domestic demand more than offset an 18.0% decline in export demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. dry whey disappearance is up an additional 8.6% YOY throughout the first ten months of the production season.
Jul ’16 U.S. dry whey total disappearance outpaced production and import volumes for the second consecutive month, resulting in a continued decline in stocks.
WPC – Disappearance Declines on a YOY Basis for the First Time in Three Months, Finishes Down 1.4%
Jul ’16 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 3.6% MOM on a daily average basis but finished lower on a YOY basis for the first time in three months, declining by 1.4%. Domestic WPC demand declined 34.5% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 59.5% increase in export volumes. ’14-’15 annual U.S. WPC commercial disappearance declined 6.1% YOY on lower domestic and export demand however ’15-’16 YTD U.S. WPC disappearance has rebounded by 2.1% YOY throughout the first ten months of the production season, despite the most recent YOY decline.
Despite finishing lower on a YOY basis, Jul ’16 U.S. WPC disappearance outpaced production and import volumes, resulting in a decline in stocks.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Finishes Lower on a YOY Basis for the Fourth Time in the Past Six Months
Jul ’16 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 14.2% MOM on a daily average basis while also finishing lower on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past six months, declining by 2.7%. U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic disappearance declined on a YOY basis for the first time in five months during Jul ’16, finishing down 20.9% and more than offsetting an 18.5% increase in export volumes. ’14-’15 annual U.S. NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance finished up 2.9% YOY as a 15.4% increase in domestic demand more than offset a 6.5% decline in export demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. NFDM/SMP disappearance is down 0.6% YOY as both domestic and international demand have declined throughout the first ten months of the production season.
Jul ’16 U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import volumes outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in an increase in stocks for the first time in three months.
Fluid Milk Sales – Fat-Free Sales Continue to Weigh Down Overall Figures, Total Milk Sales Down 1.4%
Jun ’16 U.S. fluid milk sales of 3.78 billion pounds declined on a YOY basis for the tenth time in the past 12 months, finishing down 1.4%. U.S. fluid milk sales also declined by 3.6% MOM on a daily average basis, finishing at the second lowest value on record. Sales of whole milk remained strong, finishing up 4.7% YOY, while fat-free milk sales declined 12.9% YOY. ’14-’15 annual U.S. total fluid milk sales finished down 1.8% YOY to the lowest annual figure on record. Annual whole milk sales finished up 2.2% however annual fat-free milk sales declined 10.8% throughout the year. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. fluid milk sales are down an additional 0.9% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk remained higher for the fifth consecutive month during Jul ’16, finishing up 1.1%. Total fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk is up 1.3% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the ’15-’16 production season.
Overall, Jul ’16 YOY increases in domestic commercial disappearance continue to be led by dry whey, while domestic consumption of WPC and NFDM/SMP finished significantly lower on a YOY basis. YOY increases in international disappearance were experienced on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis for the second consecutive month, driven higher by strong WPC and NFDM/SMP disappearance.
Butter – Disappearance Remains Higher on a YOY Basis, Finishes up 0.9%
Jul ’16 U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 10.5% MOM on a daily average basis but remained higher on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past seven months, finishing 0.9% above the previous year consumption level. Jul ’16 domestic butter demand finished up 2.0% YOY, more than offsetting a 40.7% YOY decline in international demand. ’14-’15 annual U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 5.1% YOY to a three year low as a 74.8% decline in export volumes more than offset a 1.8% increase in domestic demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. butter disappearance has rebounded by 2.6% YOY throughout the first ten months of the production season.
Jul ’16 U.S. butter production and import volumes slightly outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in an increase in stocks for the eighth consecutive month.
Cheese – Disappearance Remains Higher on a YOY Basis, Reaches July Record High
Jul ’16 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 3.0% MOM on a daily average basis but remained higher on a YOY basis, increasing 0.5% to a record high for the month of July. YOY increases in cheese disappearance have been exhibited over 13 consecutive months through Jul ’16. Other-than-American cheese disappearance increased by 1.3% YOY throughout the month more than offsetting a 0.8% YOY decline in American cheese disappearance. Domestic cheese demand increased 0.9% YOY however export demand remained weak, declining 5.9% YOY. Cheese export volumes have declined YOY for 22 consecutive months while domestic demand has increased YOY for 23 consecutive months through July. ’14-’15 annual U.S. cheese commercial disappearance finished up 2.1% YOY to a new record annual high as a 3.4% increase in domestic demand more than offset a 13.9% decline in export demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. cheese disappearance is up an additional 2.5% YOY throughout the first ten months of the production season.
Jul ’16 U.S. cheese production and import volumes slightly outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in an increase in stocks for the seventh consecutive month.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Remains Higher on a YOY Basis, Finishes up 9.6%
Jul ’16 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 9.1% MOM on a daily average basis from the two and a half year high experienced during the previous month but remained higher on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing up 9.6% YOY. Domestic dry whey demand increased 16.6% YOY while export volumes increased by 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month. The YOY increase in dry whey export volumes was only the second experienced throughout the past 24 months. ’14-’15 annual U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 0.4% YOY as a 24.7% increase in domestic demand more than offset an 18.0% decline in export demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. dry whey disappearance is up an additional 8.6% YOY throughout the first ten months of the production season.
Jul ’16 U.S. dry whey total disappearance outpaced production and import volumes for the second consecutive month, resulting in a continued decline in stocks.
WPC – Disappearance Declines on a YOY Basis for the First Time in Three Months, Finishes Down 1.4%
Jul ’16 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 3.6% MOM on a daily average basis but finished lower on a YOY basis for the first time in three months, declining by 1.4%. Domestic WPC demand declined 34.5% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 59.5% increase in export volumes. ’14-’15 annual U.S. WPC commercial disappearance declined 6.1% YOY on lower domestic and export demand however ’15-’16 YTD U.S. WPC disappearance has rebounded by 2.1% YOY throughout the first ten months of the production season, despite the most recent YOY decline.
Despite finishing lower on a YOY basis, Jul ’16 U.S. WPC disappearance outpaced production and import volumes, resulting in a decline in stocks.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Finishes Lower on a YOY Basis for the Fourth Time in the Past Six Months
Jul ’16 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 14.2% MOM on a daily average basis while also finishing lower on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past six months, declining by 2.7%. U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic disappearance declined on a YOY basis for the first time in five months during Jul ’16, finishing down 20.9% and more than offsetting an 18.5% increase in export volumes. ’14-’15 annual U.S. NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance finished up 2.9% YOY as a 15.4% increase in domestic demand more than offset a 6.5% decline in export demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. NFDM/SMP disappearance is down 0.6% YOY as both domestic and international demand have declined throughout the first ten months of the production season.
Jul ’16 U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import volumes outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in an increase in stocks for the first time in three months.
Fluid Milk Sales – Fat-Free Sales Continue to Weigh Down Overall Figures, Total Milk Sales Down 1.4%
Jun ’16 U.S. fluid milk sales of 3.78 billion pounds declined on a YOY basis for the tenth time in the past 12 months, finishing down 1.4%. U.S. fluid milk sales also declined by 3.6% MOM on a daily average basis, finishing at the second lowest value on record. Sales of whole milk remained strong, finishing up 4.7% YOY, while fat-free milk sales declined 12.9% YOY. ’14-’15 annual U.S. total fluid milk sales finished down 1.8% YOY to the lowest annual figure on record. Annual whole milk sales finished up 2.2% however annual fat-free milk sales declined 10.8% throughout the year. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. fluid milk sales are down an additional 0.9% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk remained higher for the fifth consecutive month during Jul ’16, finishing up 1.1%. Total fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk is up 1.3% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the ’15-’16 production season.
Overall, Jul ’16 YOY increases in domestic commercial disappearance continue to be led by dry whey, while domestic consumption of WPC and NFDM/SMP finished significantly lower on a YOY basis. YOY increases in international disappearance were experienced on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis for the second consecutive month, driven higher by strong WPC and NFDM/SMP disappearance.