U.S. Milk Production Update – Sep ’16
Executive Summary
U.S. milk production figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Aug ’16. Highlights from the updated report include:
• U.S. milk production remained higher on a YOY basis for the 32nd consecutive month during Aug ’16, finishing up 1.9%. The YOY growth rate was the largest experienced in over a year and a half on a percentage basis.
• The U.S. dairy cow herd increased by 16,000 head throughout Aug ’16, finishing at the highest figure on record experienced over the past 20 years.
• U.S. milk per cow yields increased on a YOY basis for the tenth consecutive month during Aug ’16 as growth in Midwestern yields continued to remain strong while Western yields increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month.
Additional Report Details
According to USDA, Aug ’16 U.S. milk production was up 1.9% YOY, at 17.7 billion pounds, setting a new August production record. U.S. milk production has increased YOY for 32 consecutive months through August. Production continued to declined seasonally, finishing down 1.3% MOM on a daily average basis, which was slightly larger than the ten year average July – August seasonal decline of 1.1%. U.S. milk production typically reaches peak levels during the month of May before declining until seasonal lows are reached in October.
U.S. milk production remained significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the final months of 2014, however production growth decelerated over the majority of 2015. The growth rate in U.S. milk production has accelerated over five consecutive months through August, however, while the Aug ’16 YOY growth rate of 1.9% finished at a 19 month high.
YOY production gains on a percentage basis were led by Texas (+11.0%), followed by Colorado (+6.9%) and Michigan (+6.6%). California milk production declined YOY for the 20th consecutive month, finishing 1.7% lower, while production in Florida, Virginia, Utah, Illinois and Pennsylvania also finished below the previous year.
Overall, the U.S. milk cow herd increased by 16,000 head during Aug ’16, finishing at the highest figure experienced in the past 20 years. The MOM increase in the milk cow herd occurred despite the Jul ’16 figure being revised higher by 12,000 head during the most recent report. The total U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9,360,000 head, which is 45,000 head more than August of last year.
The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the tenth consecutive month, finishing 1.4% higher than the previous year. Milk per cow yields continue to trend higher YOY in the Midwest while yields increased within the Western United States for the third consecutive month. Milk per cow yields increased by an average of 1.4% YOY within Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois and 1.0% YOY on average within California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon.
MOM increases in the milk cow herd were experienced in Texas (+12,000 head), New Mexico (+4,000 head), Michigan (+2,000 head) and Colorado (+1,000 head) while California, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Florida each experienced MOM declines of 1,000 head during Aug ’16.
YOY increases in milk cow herds were also led by Texas (+25,000 head), followed by Idaho (+13,000 head) and Michigan (+12,000 head). California (-11,000 head) experienced the largest YOY reduction in their milk cow herd throughout the month.
U.S. milk production remained significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the final months of 2014, however production growth decelerated over the majority of 2015. The growth rate in U.S. milk production has accelerated over five consecutive months through August, however, while the Aug ’16 YOY growth rate of 1.9% finished at a 19 month high.
YOY production gains on a percentage basis were led by Texas (+11.0%), followed by Colorado (+6.9%) and Michigan (+6.6%). California milk production declined YOY for the 20th consecutive month, finishing 1.7% lower, while production in Florida, Virginia, Utah, Illinois and Pennsylvania also finished below the previous year.
Overall, the U.S. milk cow herd increased by 16,000 head during Aug ’16, finishing at the highest figure experienced in the past 20 years. The MOM increase in the milk cow herd occurred despite the Jul ’16 figure being revised higher by 12,000 head during the most recent report. The total U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9,360,000 head, which is 45,000 head more than August of last year.
The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the tenth consecutive month, finishing 1.4% higher than the previous year. Milk per cow yields continue to trend higher YOY in the Midwest while yields increased within the Western United States for the third consecutive month. Milk per cow yields increased by an average of 1.4% YOY within Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois and 1.0% YOY on average within California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon.
MOM increases in the milk cow herd were experienced in Texas (+12,000 head), New Mexico (+4,000 head), Michigan (+2,000 head) and Colorado (+1,000 head) while California, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Florida each experienced MOM declines of 1,000 head during Aug ’16.
YOY increases in milk cow herds were also led by Texas (+25,000 head), followed by Idaho (+13,000 head) and Michigan (+12,000 head). California (-11,000 head) experienced the largest YOY reduction in their milk cow herd throughout the month.