U.S. Livestock Cold Storage Update – Sep ’16
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Aug ’16. Highlights from the updated report include:
• U.S. pork stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month during Aug ’16 while chicken stocks declined on a YOY basis for the first time in 21 months.
• U.S. beef stocks each finished higher on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Aug ’16, increasing to a nine year high for the month of August.
• Aug ’16 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken remained 5.6% below the record high experienced in Oct ’15 and 2.5% below the record high seasonal level for the month of August experienced during the previous year.
Additional Report Details
Pork – Stocks Decline on a YOY Basis for the Seventh Consecutive Month, Finish Down 7.1%
According to USDA, Aug ’16 U.S. frozen pork stocks of 607.3 million pounds increased 1.4% MOM but remained lower on a YOY basis, finishing down 7.1%. Pork stocks have finished lower on a YOY basis for seven consecutive months through August. The MOM increase in pork stocks of 8.7 million pounds was slightly larger than the ten year average July – August seasonal increase in stocks of 4.6 million pounds. Despite remaining lower on a YOY basis, Aug ’16 pork stocks finished 4.3% above three year average figures for the month of August.
Beef – Stocks Reach a Nine Year High for the Month of August, Finish up 1.3% YOY
Aug ’16 U.S. frozen beef stocks of 476.6 million pounds increased 1.5% MOM and 1.3% YOY, finishing at a nine year high for the month of August. The MOM increase in beef stocks of 7.0 million pounds was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average July – August seasonal decrease in stocks of 5.6 million pounds. Aug ’16 beef stocks finishing 14.7% higher than three year average figures for the month of August.
Chicken – Stocks Decline on a YOY Basis for the First Time in 21 Months
Aug ’16 U.S. frozen chicken stocks of 773.7 million pounds declined 6.1% MOM and 0.7% YOY. The YOY decline in chicken stocks was the first experienced within the past 21 months. Stocks built throughout the past two years as the Russian import ban negatively affected U.S. broiler exports. U.S. broiler export volumes have declined by 8.6% YOY since the ban was announced. The MOM decline in chicken stocks of 50.2 million pounds was significantly larger than the ten year average July – August seasonal decline in stocks of 5.2 million pounds. Despite the larger than average seasonal decline, Aug ’16 chicken stocks remained at the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past ten years, finishing 9.8% higher than three year average figure for the month of August.
Overall, combined Aug ’16 U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks remained 5.6% below the monthly record high experienced in Oct ’15. Individually, Aug ’16 U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks each finished within 20% of historical maximum storage levels.
Aug ’16 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 2.5% below the record high seasonal storage level for the month of August experienced during the previous year. Pork, beef and chicken stocks each finished within 10% of historical maximum storage levels for the month of August.
According to USDA, Aug ’16 U.S. frozen pork stocks of 607.3 million pounds increased 1.4% MOM but remained lower on a YOY basis, finishing down 7.1%. Pork stocks have finished lower on a YOY basis for seven consecutive months through August. The MOM increase in pork stocks of 8.7 million pounds was slightly larger than the ten year average July – August seasonal increase in stocks of 4.6 million pounds. Despite remaining lower on a YOY basis, Aug ’16 pork stocks finished 4.3% above three year average figures for the month of August.
Beef – Stocks Reach a Nine Year High for the Month of August, Finish up 1.3% YOY
Aug ’16 U.S. frozen beef stocks of 476.6 million pounds increased 1.5% MOM and 1.3% YOY, finishing at a nine year high for the month of August. The MOM increase in beef stocks of 7.0 million pounds was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average July – August seasonal decrease in stocks of 5.6 million pounds. Aug ’16 beef stocks finishing 14.7% higher than three year average figures for the month of August.
Chicken – Stocks Decline on a YOY Basis for the First Time in 21 Months
Aug ’16 U.S. frozen chicken stocks of 773.7 million pounds declined 6.1% MOM and 0.7% YOY. The YOY decline in chicken stocks was the first experienced within the past 21 months. Stocks built throughout the past two years as the Russian import ban negatively affected U.S. broiler exports. U.S. broiler export volumes have declined by 8.6% YOY since the ban was announced. The MOM decline in chicken stocks of 50.2 million pounds was significantly larger than the ten year average July – August seasonal decline in stocks of 5.2 million pounds. Despite the larger than average seasonal decline, Aug ’16 chicken stocks remained at the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past ten years, finishing 9.8% higher than three year average figure for the month of August.
Overall, combined Aug ’16 U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks remained 5.6% below the monthly record high experienced in Oct ’15. Individually, Aug ’16 U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks each finished within 20% of historical maximum storage levels.
Aug ’16 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 2.5% below the record high seasonal storage level for the month of August experienced during the previous year. Pork, beef and chicken stocks each finished within 10% of historical maximum storage levels for the month of August.