U.S. Milk Production Update – Oct ’16
Executive Summary
U.S. milk production figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’16. Highlights from the updated report include:
• U.S. milk production remained higher on a YOY basis for the 33rd consecutive month during Sep ’16, finishing up 2.1%. The YOY growth rate was the largest experienced in over a year and a half on a percentage basis.
• The U.S. dairy cow herd declined by 3,000 head throughout Sep ’16 but remained at the second highest figure experienced throughout the past 18 years. The decline was in addition to the Aug ’16 figure being revised lower by 19,000 head.
• U.S. milk per cow yields increased on a YOY basis for the 11th consecutive month during Sep ’16 as growth in Midwestern yields continued to remain strong while Western yields increased on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the largest experienced throughout the past 21 months on a percentage basis.
Additional Report Details
According to USDA, Sep ’16 U.S. milk production was up 2.1% YOY, at 17.0 billion pounds, setting a new September production record. U.S. milk production has increased YOY for 33 consecutive months through September. Production continued to declined seasonally, finishing down 0.9% MOM on a daily average basis, which was slightly less than the ten year average August – September seasonal decline of 1.1%. U.S. milk production typically reaches peak levels during the month of May before declining until seasonal lows are reached in October.
U.S. milk production remained significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the final months of 2014, however production growth decelerated over the majority of 2015. The growth rate in U.S. milk production has once again accelerated over recent months, however, as the Sep ’16 YOY growth rate of 2.1% finished at a 20 month high.
YOY production gains on a percentage basis were led by Kansas (+6.3%), followed by Michigan (+5.8%) and Texas (+5.3%). California milk production declined YOY for the 21st consecutive month, finishing 0.1% lower, while production in Virginia, Utah, Florida, Illinois and Oregon also finished below the previous year.
Overall, the U.S. milk cow herd declined by 3,000 head during Sep ’16, while the Aug ’16 milk cow herd figure was revised lower by 19,000 head. Despite the decline, the U.S. milk cow herd remained at the second highest figure experienced throughout the past 18 years. The total U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.34 million head, which is 21,000 head more than September of last year.
The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the 11th consecutive month, finishing 1.8% higher than the previous year. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the largest experienced throughout the past 21 months on a percentage basis. Milk per cow yields continue to trend higher YOY in the Midwest while yields increased within the Western United States for the fourth consecutive month. Milk per cow yields increased by an average of 2.6% YOY within Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois and 1.4% YOY on average within California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon.
Gains in milk per cow productivity have continued to account for the majority of the milk production growth experienced throughout Sep ’16. 88% of the increase in milk production was the result of higher productivity per cow during Sep ’16 while growth attributed to herd expansion accounted for just 12% of the Sep ’16 milk production growth.
MOM declines in the milk cow herd were experienced in Pennsylvania (-2,000 head), Wisconsin (-1,000 head), Minnesota (-1,000 head) and California (-1,000 head) while Texas, New Mexico and Arizona each experienced MOM increases of 1,000 head during Sep ’16.
YOY increases in milk cow herds were led by Texas (+26,000 head), followed by Idaho (+12,000 head) and Michigan (+12,000 head). California (-11,000 head) experienced the largest YOY reduction in their milk cow herd throughout the month.
U.S. milk production remained significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the final months of 2014, however production growth decelerated over the majority of 2015. The growth rate in U.S. milk production has once again accelerated over recent months, however, as the Sep ’16 YOY growth rate of 2.1% finished at a 20 month high.
YOY production gains on a percentage basis were led by Kansas (+6.3%), followed by Michigan (+5.8%) and Texas (+5.3%). California milk production declined YOY for the 21st consecutive month, finishing 0.1% lower, while production in Virginia, Utah, Florida, Illinois and Oregon also finished below the previous year.
Overall, the U.S. milk cow herd declined by 3,000 head during Sep ’16, while the Aug ’16 milk cow herd figure was revised lower by 19,000 head. Despite the decline, the U.S. milk cow herd remained at the second highest figure experienced throughout the past 18 years. The total U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.34 million head, which is 21,000 head more than September of last year.
The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the 11th consecutive month, finishing 1.8% higher than the previous year. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the largest experienced throughout the past 21 months on a percentage basis. Milk per cow yields continue to trend higher YOY in the Midwest while yields increased within the Western United States for the fourth consecutive month. Milk per cow yields increased by an average of 2.6% YOY within Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois and 1.4% YOY on average within California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon.
Gains in milk per cow productivity have continued to account for the majority of the milk production growth experienced throughout Sep ’16. 88% of the increase in milk production was the result of higher productivity per cow during Sep ’16 while growth attributed to herd expansion accounted for just 12% of the Sep ’16 milk production growth.
MOM declines in the milk cow herd were experienced in Pennsylvania (-2,000 head), Wisconsin (-1,000 head), Minnesota (-1,000 head) and California (-1,000 head) while Texas, New Mexico and Arizona each experienced MOM increases of 1,000 head during Sep ’16.
YOY increases in milk cow herds were led by Texas (+26,000 head), followed by Idaho (+12,000 head) and Michigan (+12,000 head). California (-11,000 head) experienced the largest YOY reduction in their milk cow herd throughout the month.