Chinese Dairy Cow Herd Update – Nov ’16
According to USDA, lower milk prices experienced throughout China during 2015 and into 2016 are expected to result in a significant decline in dairy cow figures. China is expected to have 7.0 million dairy cows as of the beginning of 2017, down one million head from the previous year figures. The projected decline in the Chinese dairy cow herd would be the largest experienced since the 2009 declines following the melamine scandal of the previous year.
The decline in the Chinese dairy cow herd is expected to be largely offset by productivity gains stemming from the transition to large-scale dairy farms, however. According to USDA, it is estimated that 60 to 70 percent of fluid milk production within China came from large-scale dairy operations during 2016. The Chinese dairy cow herd is expected to be reduced by 12.5% YOY heading into 2017, however production is only expected to fall 2.0% throughout the year.
Chinese per cow productivity is expected to reach record highs throughout 2017 after remaining largely flat throughout the past several years. Per cow productivity is projected to increase by 12.0% YOY throughout 2017.
The decline in the Chinese dairy cow herd is expected to be largely offset by productivity gains stemming from the transition to large-scale dairy farms, however. According to USDA, it is estimated that 60 to 70 percent of fluid milk production within China came from large-scale dairy operations during 2016. The Chinese dairy cow herd is expected to be reduced by 12.5% YOY heading into 2017, however production is only expected to fall 2.0% throughout the year.
Chinese per cow productivity is expected to reach record highs throughout 2017 after remaining largely flat throughout the past several years. Per cow productivity is projected to increase by 12.0% YOY throughout 2017.