U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Dec ’16
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’16. Highlights from the updated report include:
Butter – Disappearance Remains Sharply Higher on a YOY Basis, Finishes up 17.2%
Oct ’16 U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 3.7% MOM on a daily average basis but remained significantly higher on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, finishing up 17.2%. The YOY increase in butter commercial disappearance was the largest experienced in over a year on a percentage basis. Oct ’16 domestic butter demand increased 14.6% YOY to a four year seasonal high while international demand increased 264.3% from the six year low experienced during the previous year. ’15-’16 annual U.S. butter disappearance increased 2.2% YOY as a 3.3% increase in domestic demand more than offset a 43.7% decline in export volumes.
Oct ’16 U.S. butter disappearance figures outpaced production and import volumes, resulting in the third consecutive monthly decline in stocks. Butter stocks typically decline seasonally until lows are reached during the month of November.
Cheese – Disappearance Remains Higher on a YOY Basis, Reaches October Record High
Oct ’16 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 3.2% MOM on a daily average basis and 1.5% YOY, finishing at a record high for the month of October. YOY increases in cheese disappearance have been exhibited over 16 consecutive months through Oct ’16. American cheese disappearance increased 4.3% throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.1% decline in other-than-American cheese disappearance. Domestic cheese demand increased on a YOY basis for the 26th consecutive month, finishing 1.3% above the previous year, while export demand increased 4.9% throughout the month, finishing higher on a YOY basis for only the second time in the past two years. Domestic cheese disappearance increased 3.7% throughout the ’15-’16 production season, more than offsetting a 14.0% decline in export demand. American cheese disappearance increased just 0.2% throughout the ’15-’16 production season however other-than-American cheese disappearance finished 4.2% higher over the period.
Oct ’16 U.S. cheese disappearance figures outpaced production and import volumes, resulting in the third consecutive monthly decline in stocks.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Finishes Sharply Lower on a YOY Basis, Down 20.0%
Oct ’16 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 15.9% MOM on a daily average basis while also finishing lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, declining by 20.0%. Domestic dry whey demand declined 51.6% throughout the month, more than offsetting a 54.6% increase in export volumes. Domestic dry whey demand has declined on a YOY basis over three consecutive months through October, finishing 29.7% lower over the period. ’15-’16 annual U.S. dry whey disappearance finished up 7.3% YOY as domestic demand increased to an eight year high.
Oct ’16 U.S. dry whey production and import volumes outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in the first increase in stocks experienced throughout the past five months.
WPC – Disappearance Declines Sharply, Finishes at a Three and a Half Year Low
Oct ’16 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 23.0% MOM on a daily average basis and 32.2% YOY, finishing at a three and a half year low. The YOY decline in WPC commercial disappearance was the largest experienced throughout the past 14 year on a percentage basis. WPC export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 14th time in the past 15 months, finishing up 19.9%, however the increase in export volumes was more than offset by a 67.2% YOY decline in domestic demand. ’15-’16 annual U.S. WPC disappearance increased by 0.8% as export demand finished at a record annual high, however domestic demand declined by 20.0% YOY over the period.
Oct ’16 U.S. WPC production and import volumes outpaced total disappearance figures for the second time in the past three months, resulting in an increase in stocks.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Remains Lower on a YOY Basis as Domestic Demand Remains Weak
Oct ’16 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 8.2% MOM on a daily average basis and 8.5% YOY, finishing lower for the third time in the past four months. U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic disappearance declined 40.1% throughout the month, more than offsetting a 14.4% increase in export volumes. Domestic demand reached a four year low on an absolute basis and a six year seasonal low for the month of October. ’15-’16 annual U.S. NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 0.7% YOY as a 3.8% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 2.2% increase in export volumes.
Oct ’16 U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import volumes outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in the first increase in stocks experienced throughout the past three months.
Fluid Milk Sales – Total Milk Sales Decline YOY for the First Time in Three Months, Finish Down 3.5%
Oct ’16 U.S. fluid milk sales of 4.18 billion pounds declined 2.1% MOM on a daily average basis while also finishing lower on a YOY basis for the first time in three months, declining by 3.5%. Sales of whole milk increased on a YOY basis for the 23rd consecutive month, finishing up 1.3%, however fat-free milk sales declined 13.7% YOY throughout the month. ’15-’16 annual U.S. total fluid milk sales declined to a record low for the sixth consecutive year, finished down 0.8% YOY. Annual whole milk sales finished up 6.1% however annual fat-free milk sales declined 11.3% throughout the year.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the first time in nine months during Oct ’16, finishing down 1.7%. Declines in fat consumed within reduced fat and low-fat milk more than offset an increase in fat consumed within whole milk throughout the month. Total fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk finished up 1.6% YOY throughout the ’15-’16 production season.
Overall, Oct ’16 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for butter, while butter and dry whey international disappearance finished most significantly higher throughout the month.
- Oct ’16 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products finished at record high seasonal levels for the month of October on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis as export demand remained particularly strong.
- Oct ’16 commercial disappearance of butter and cheese remained higher on a YOY basis as both domestic and export demand increased throughout the month. Disappearance of lower milk-fat products including dry whey, whey protein concentrate and nonfat dry milk finished sharply lower on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’16, however.
- U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the first time in three months during Oct ’16, finishing down 3.5%. Sales of whole milk increased on a YOY basis for the 23rd consecutive month during Oct ’16, however skim milk sales remained weak, declining by 13.7%.
Butter – Disappearance Remains Sharply Higher on a YOY Basis, Finishes up 17.2%
Oct ’16 U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 3.7% MOM on a daily average basis but remained significantly higher on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, finishing up 17.2%. The YOY increase in butter commercial disappearance was the largest experienced in over a year on a percentage basis. Oct ’16 domestic butter demand increased 14.6% YOY to a four year seasonal high while international demand increased 264.3% from the six year low experienced during the previous year. ’15-’16 annual U.S. butter disappearance increased 2.2% YOY as a 3.3% increase in domestic demand more than offset a 43.7% decline in export volumes.
Oct ’16 U.S. butter disappearance figures outpaced production and import volumes, resulting in the third consecutive monthly decline in stocks. Butter stocks typically decline seasonally until lows are reached during the month of November.
Cheese – Disappearance Remains Higher on a YOY Basis, Reaches October Record High
Oct ’16 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 3.2% MOM on a daily average basis and 1.5% YOY, finishing at a record high for the month of October. YOY increases in cheese disappearance have been exhibited over 16 consecutive months through Oct ’16. American cheese disappearance increased 4.3% throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.1% decline in other-than-American cheese disappearance. Domestic cheese demand increased on a YOY basis for the 26th consecutive month, finishing 1.3% above the previous year, while export demand increased 4.9% throughout the month, finishing higher on a YOY basis for only the second time in the past two years. Domestic cheese disappearance increased 3.7% throughout the ’15-’16 production season, more than offsetting a 14.0% decline in export demand. American cheese disappearance increased just 0.2% throughout the ’15-’16 production season however other-than-American cheese disappearance finished 4.2% higher over the period.
Oct ’16 U.S. cheese disappearance figures outpaced production and import volumes, resulting in the third consecutive monthly decline in stocks.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Finishes Sharply Lower on a YOY Basis, Down 20.0%
Oct ’16 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 15.9% MOM on a daily average basis while also finishing lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, declining by 20.0%. Domestic dry whey demand declined 51.6% throughout the month, more than offsetting a 54.6% increase in export volumes. Domestic dry whey demand has declined on a YOY basis over three consecutive months through October, finishing 29.7% lower over the period. ’15-’16 annual U.S. dry whey disappearance finished up 7.3% YOY as domestic demand increased to an eight year high.
Oct ’16 U.S. dry whey production and import volumes outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in the first increase in stocks experienced throughout the past five months.
WPC – Disappearance Declines Sharply, Finishes at a Three and a Half Year Low
Oct ’16 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 23.0% MOM on a daily average basis and 32.2% YOY, finishing at a three and a half year low. The YOY decline in WPC commercial disappearance was the largest experienced throughout the past 14 year on a percentage basis. WPC export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 14th time in the past 15 months, finishing up 19.9%, however the increase in export volumes was more than offset by a 67.2% YOY decline in domestic demand. ’15-’16 annual U.S. WPC disappearance increased by 0.8% as export demand finished at a record annual high, however domestic demand declined by 20.0% YOY over the period.
Oct ’16 U.S. WPC production and import volumes outpaced total disappearance figures for the second time in the past three months, resulting in an increase in stocks.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Remains Lower on a YOY Basis as Domestic Demand Remains Weak
Oct ’16 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 8.2% MOM on a daily average basis and 8.5% YOY, finishing lower for the third time in the past four months. U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic disappearance declined 40.1% throughout the month, more than offsetting a 14.4% increase in export volumes. Domestic demand reached a four year low on an absolute basis and a six year seasonal low for the month of October. ’15-’16 annual U.S. NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 0.7% YOY as a 3.8% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 2.2% increase in export volumes.
Oct ’16 U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import volumes outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in the first increase in stocks experienced throughout the past three months.
Fluid Milk Sales – Total Milk Sales Decline YOY for the First Time in Three Months, Finish Down 3.5%
Oct ’16 U.S. fluid milk sales of 4.18 billion pounds declined 2.1% MOM on a daily average basis while also finishing lower on a YOY basis for the first time in three months, declining by 3.5%. Sales of whole milk increased on a YOY basis for the 23rd consecutive month, finishing up 1.3%, however fat-free milk sales declined 13.7% YOY throughout the month. ’15-’16 annual U.S. total fluid milk sales declined to a record low for the sixth consecutive year, finished down 0.8% YOY. Annual whole milk sales finished up 6.1% however annual fat-free milk sales declined 11.3% throughout the year.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the first time in nine months during Oct ’16, finishing down 1.7%. Declines in fat consumed within reduced fat and low-fat milk more than offset an increase in fat consumed within whole milk throughout the month. Total fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk finished up 1.6% YOY throughout the ’15-’16 production season.
Overall, Oct ’16 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for butter, while butter and dry whey international disappearance finished most significantly higher throughout the month.