EU-28 Milk Production Update – Dec ’16
Executive Summary
EU-28 milk production figures provided by Eurostat were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’16. Highlights from the updated report include:
EU-28 milk production declined on a YOY basis throughout the final months of the ’14-’15 production season as producers attempted to limit superlevy penalties for exceeding milk production quota levels but rebounded throughout the ’15-’16 production season in the post-quota environment. The Oct ’16 YOY decline in production was against record high levels experienced throughout the first year of post-quota production. Overall, ’15-’16 annual EU-28 milk production finished 4.0% higher YOY.
The European Commission’s €150 million voluntary milk reduction scheme, which was announced in July and came into force October 1st, likely contributing to the significant YOY declines in production experienced throughout the month. The voluntary milk reduction scheme is expected to result in a 1.1% YOY reduction in total EU-28 milk deliveries in addition to YOY declines experienced throughout the four month period prior to the scheme coming into force.
YOY declines in production experienced throughout Oct ’16 were led by France (-158,290 MT), followed by Germany (-96,720 MT) and the United Kingdom (-75,000 MT). The aforementioned countries accounted for over 40% of the total monthly EU-28 milk production and over three quarters of the YOY production declines experienced during Oct ’16. YOY declines in production on a percentage basis were led by Belgium (-11.5%), followed by France (-7.7%) and Slovakia (-7.3%), while increases on a percentage basis were most significant in the Czech Republic (+10.4%), Malta (+3.9%) and the Netherlands (+2.0%). Production within the Netherlands increased on a YOY basis for the 19th consecutive month during Oct ’16, however the YOY increase in production volumes was the lowest experienced throughout the past 18 months on a percentage basis.
Eight of the top milk producing member states experienced YOY declines in milk production during Oct ’16, declining by a weighted average of 3.6% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production experienced throughout the month. Overall, 22 of the 28 member states experienced YOY declines in production volumes during Oct ’16.
Sep ’16 EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter increased on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past eight months, finishing up 2.3%. YOY increases in beef & dairy cow slaughter were led by the United Kingdom, followed by Italy, Ireland and Belgium.
EU-28 bovine slaughter has finished higher on a YOY basis over nine of the past 12 months through September. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to be marginally lower throughout 2016 but recent culling is expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled. Total EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished 1.3% higher YOY throughout the ’15-’16 production season and is up an additional 3.5% throughout the first half of the ’16-’17 production season.
- EU-28 milk production declined on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during Oct ’16, finishing down 3.4%. The YOY decline in EU-28 milk production was the largest experienced in over 24 years on a percentage basis. The European Commission’s voluntary milk reduction scheme came into force at the beginning of October, likely contributing to the significant YOY declines in production experienced throughout the month.
- Milk production declined on a YOY basis most significantly within France, followed by Germany and the United Kingdom. Overall, 22 of the 28 member states experienced YOY declines in production volumes during Oct ’16.
- Continued YOY increases in slaughter rates likely contributed to the decline in milk production experienced during Oct ’16. Sep ’16 EU-28 bovine slaughter rates increased on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past eight months, finishing up 2.3%.
EU-28 milk production declined on a YOY basis throughout the final months of the ’14-’15 production season as producers attempted to limit superlevy penalties for exceeding milk production quota levels but rebounded throughout the ’15-’16 production season in the post-quota environment. The Oct ’16 YOY decline in production was against record high levels experienced throughout the first year of post-quota production. Overall, ’15-’16 annual EU-28 milk production finished 4.0% higher YOY.
The European Commission’s €150 million voluntary milk reduction scheme, which was announced in July and came into force October 1st, likely contributing to the significant YOY declines in production experienced throughout the month. The voluntary milk reduction scheme is expected to result in a 1.1% YOY reduction in total EU-28 milk deliveries in addition to YOY declines experienced throughout the four month period prior to the scheme coming into force.
YOY declines in production experienced throughout Oct ’16 were led by France (-158,290 MT), followed by Germany (-96,720 MT) and the United Kingdom (-75,000 MT). The aforementioned countries accounted for over 40% of the total monthly EU-28 milk production and over three quarters of the YOY production declines experienced during Oct ’16. YOY declines in production on a percentage basis were led by Belgium (-11.5%), followed by France (-7.7%) and Slovakia (-7.3%), while increases on a percentage basis were most significant in the Czech Republic (+10.4%), Malta (+3.9%) and the Netherlands (+2.0%). Production within the Netherlands increased on a YOY basis for the 19th consecutive month during Oct ’16, however the YOY increase in production volumes was the lowest experienced throughout the past 18 months on a percentage basis.
Eight of the top milk producing member states experienced YOY declines in milk production during Oct ’16, declining by a weighted average of 3.6% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production experienced throughout the month. Overall, 22 of the 28 member states experienced YOY declines in production volumes during Oct ’16.
Sep ’16 EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter increased on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past eight months, finishing up 2.3%. YOY increases in beef & dairy cow slaughter were led by the United Kingdom, followed by Italy, Ireland and Belgium.
EU-28 bovine slaughter has finished higher on a YOY basis over nine of the past 12 months through September. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to be marginally lower throughout 2016 but recent culling is expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled. Total EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished 1.3% higher YOY throughout the ’15-’16 production season and is up an additional 3.5% throughout the first half of the ’16-’17 production season.