U.S. Livestock Cold Storage Update – Dec ’16
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Nov ’16. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to USDA, Nov ’16 U.S. frozen pork stocks of 520.3 million pounds declined 13.1% MOM while also remaining lower on a YOY basis, finishing down 7.2%. Pork stocks have finished lower on a YOY basis over ten consecutive months through November. The MOM decline in pork stocks of 78.6 million pounds, or 13.1%, was significantly larger than the ten year average October – November seasonal decline in stocks of 22.9 million pounds, or 4.2%, contributing to the continued YOY declines. Nov ’16 pork stocks finished 2.4% below three year average figures for the month of November.
Beef – Stocks Reach a Record Seasonal High, Finish up 4.1% YOY
Nov ’16 U.S. frozen beef stocks of 531.5 million pounds declined 0.3% MOM from the record monthly high experienced during the previous month but remained higher on a YOY basis, finishing up 4.1%. Beef stocks have increased on a YOY basis over five consecutive months through November. The MOM decline in beef stocks of 1.5 million pounds, or 0.3%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average October – November seasonal increase in stocks of 12.6 million pounds, or 2.9%. Nov ’16 beef stocks finished 17.0% higher than three year average figures for the month of November and 2.1% higher than the previous record seasonal high experienced during Nov ’06.
Chicken – Stocks Decline on a YOY Basis for the Fourth Consecutive Month, Finish Down 10.3%
Nov ’16 U.S. frozen chicken stocks of 791.3 million pounds increased 1.8% MOM but remained lower on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing down 10.3%. The YOY decline in chicken stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past two years on a percentage basis. U.S. chicken stocks had increased on a YOY basis over 20 consecutive months prior to the three most recent YOY declines. The MOM increase in chicken stocks of 13.7 million pounds, or 1.8%, was consistent with the ten year average October – November seasonal increase in stocks of 12.1 million pounds, or 1.7%. Despite remaining lower on a YOY basis, Nov ’16 chicken stocks finished 2.5% above three year average figures for the month of November.
Overall, Nov ’16 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 6.5% below the monthly record high experienced during Oct ’15. Individually, Nov ’16 beef stocks remained within one percent of maximum historical storage levels while chicken and pork stocks finished within 15% and 26% of historical maximum storage levels, respectively.
Beef stocks reached a new maximum seasonal storage level for the month of November while pork and chicken stocks finished within 10% of record seasonal storage levels.
- U.S. pork stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the tenth consecutive month during Nov ’16 while chicken stocks declined on a YOY basis for the fourth month in a row.
- U.S. beef stocks finished higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during Nov ’16, while remaining near the monthly record high experienced during the previous month.
- Nov ’16 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken finished 6.5% below the record high experienced during Oct ’15, despite beef stocks remaining within one percent of the all-time record high.
According to USDA, Nov ’16 U.S. frozen pork stocks of 520.3 million pounds declined 13.1% MOM while also remaining lower on a YOY basis, finishing down 7.2%. Pork stocks have finished lower on a YOY basis over ten consecutive months through November. The MOM decline in pork stocks of 78.6 million pounds, or 13.1%, was significantly larger than the ten year average October – November seasonal decline in stocks of 22.9 million pounds, or 4.2%, contributing to the continued YOY declines. Nov ’16 pork stocks finished 2.4% below three year average figures for the month of November.
Beef – Stocks Reach a Record Seasonal High, Finish up 4.1% YOY
Nov ’16 U.S. frozen beef stocks of 531.5 million pounds declined 0.3% MOM from the record monthly high experienced during the previous month but remained higher on a YOY basis, finishing up 4.1%. Beef stocks have increased on a YOY basis over five consecutive months through November. The MOM decline in beef stocks of 1.5 million pounds, or 0.3%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average October – November seasonal increase in stocks of 12.6 million pounds, or 2.9%. Nov ’16 beef stocks finished 17.0% higher than three year average figures for the month of November and 2.1% higher than the previous record seasonal high experienced during Nov ’06.
Chicken – Stocks Decline on a YOY Basis for the Fourth Consecutive Month, Finish Down 10.3%
Nov ’16 U.S. frozen chicken stocks of 791.3 million pounds increased 1.8% MOM but remained lower on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing down 10.3%. The YOY decline in chicken stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past two years on a percentage basis. U.S. chicken stocks had increased on a YOY basis over 20 consecutive months prior to the three most recent YOY declines. The MOM increase in chicken stocks of 13.7 million pounds, or 1.8%, was consistent with the ten year average October – November seasonal increase in stocks of 12.1 million pounds, or 1.7%. Despite remaining lower on a YOY basis, Nov ’16 chicken stocks finished 2.5% above three year average figures for the month of November.
Overall, Nov ’16 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 6.5% below the monthly record high experienced during Oct ’15. Individually, Nov ’16 beef stocks remained within one percent of maximum historical storage levels while chicken and pork stocks finished within 15% and 26% of historical maximum storage levels, respectively.
Beef stocks reached a new maximum seasonal storage level for the month of November while pork and chicken stocks finished within 10% of record seasonal storage levels.