U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Feb ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Dec ’17. Highlights from the updated report include:
Butter – Disappearance Declines YOY on Lower Domestic Demand, Finishes Down 0.6%
Dec ’17 U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months, finishing down 0.6%. Dec ’17 domestic butter demand declined 0.8% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 6.6% increase in export volumes. ’16-’17 annual U.S. butter disappearance finished 3.5% higher YOY, reaching a three year high, as domestic butter disappearance increased 2.3%, reaching the highest figure on record. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has declined 0.3% throughout the first quarter of the production season, however.
Dec ’17 U.S. butter combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month. The increase in butter stocks was the first experienced throughout the eight months. U.S. butter stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Cheese – Disappearance Increases to a Record Seasonal High, Finishes up 0.9%
Dec ’17 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 0.9% YOY, finishing at the highest seasonal figure on record. Commercial disappearance of cheese has finished higher over four of the past five months through December. American cheese disappearance increased 2.5% YOY, more than offsetting a 0.2% YOY decline in other-than-American cheese disappearance experienced throughout the month. Total domestic cheese demand increased 1.2% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 4.4% decline in export volumes. The YOY decline in cheese export figures was the first experienced throughout the past 15 months. ’16-’17 annual U.S. cheese disappearance increased 2.6% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 1.6% to a record high while export demand finished up 20.5%, reaching a three year high. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance is up an additional 1.9% throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Dec ’17 U.S. cheese combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month. The increase in cheese stocks was the first experienced throughout the five months. U.S. cheese stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of October and November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Remains Strong, Finishes up 16.0% YOY
Dec ’17 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance remained higher on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month, finishing up 16.0%. Domestic dry whey demand increased 24.5% YOY throughout the month while export demand finished 9.3% higher. The YOY increase in dry whey export volumes was the 16th experienced throughout the past 18 months. ’16-’17 annual U.S. dry whey disappearance declined 1.9% YOY from the four year high experienced during the previous year as a 16.9% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 22.2% increase in export demand. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance is up an additional 14.9% throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Dec ’17 disappearance of U.S. dry whey outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining from the previous month.
WPC – Disappearance Declines to a Five Year Seasonal Low, Finishes Down 10.9%
Dec ’17 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 10.9% YOY, finishing at a five year seasonal low for the month of December. Domestic WPC demand declined 50.2% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 24.0% increase in export volumes. ’16-’17 annual U.S. WPC disappearance declined 5.3% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season as a 13.8% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 2.0% increase in export demand. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance is down an additional 2.8% throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Dec ’17 U.S. WPC combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing for the tenth consecutive month.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Finishes Slightly Higher on Strong Export Demand, Finishes up 0.5% YOY
Dec ’17 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 0.5% YOY, finishing higher for the second time in the past three months. NFDM/SMP domestic disappearance declined 30.2% YOY throughout the month, however the decline was more than offset by a 29.1% increase in export volumes. ’16-’17 annual U.S. NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 0.5% YOY to a three year low as a 14.9% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 11.8% increase in export volumes experienced throughout the production season. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded slightly throughout the first quarter of the production season, increasing by 0.2%.
Dec ’17 U.S. NFDM/SMP combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing for the second consecutive month.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline 1.1% YOY on Continued Weak Fat-Free Sales
Nov ’17 U.S. fluid milk sales of 4.13 billion pounds remained lower on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month, finishing down 1.1%. Sales of whole milk increased 3.3% YOY throughout the month however fat-free milk sales remained weak, declining by 10.2%. ’16-’17 annual U.S. total fluid milk sales declined to a record low for the eighth consecutive year, finished down 1.7% YOY. Annual whole milk sales finished up 3.1% however annual fat-free milk sales declined 11.8% throughout the year.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk increased on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Nov ’17 as total consumption finished up 0.7%. ’16-’17 annual total fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk increased 0.2% YOY, finishing at a four year high.
Overall, domestic commercial disappearance declined most significantly on an absolute basis for NFDM/SMP, followed by WPC, while increasing for cheese and dry whey. Export volumes strengthened most significantly on an absolute basis for NFDM/SMP, followed by WPC and dry whey.
- Dec ’17 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products finished 1.2% lower YOY on milk-fat basis but 0.4% higher YOY on a skim-solids basis. Domestic disappearance finished lower on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis throughout the month, declining by 0.9% and 3.2%, respectively.
- Dec ’17 U.S. cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder commercial disappearance increased on a YOY basis throughout the month however butter and whey protein concentrate commercial disappearance finished lower as poor domestic consumption offset higher export volumes.
- U.S. fluid milk sales finished lower on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month during Nov ’17, declining by 1.1%. Sales of whole milk increased 3.3% YOY throughout the month however fat-free milk sales remained weak, declining 10.2%. ’16-’17 annual U.S. fluid milk sales declined to a record low for the eighth consecutive year, finishing down 1.7% YOY.
Butter – Disappearance Declines YOY on Lower Domestic Demand, Finishes Down 0.6%
Dec ’17 U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months, finishing down 0.6%. Dec ’17 domestic butter demand declined 0.8% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 6.6% increase in export volumes. ’16-’17 annual U.S. butter disappearance finished 3.5% higher YOY, reaching a three year high, as domestic butter disappearance increased 2.3%, reaching the highest figure on record. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has declined 0.3% throughout the first quarter of the production season, however.
Dec ’17 U.S. butter combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month. The increase in butter stocks was the first experienced throughout the eight months. U.S. butter stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Cheese – Disappearance Increases to a Record Seasonal High, Finishes up 0.9%
Dec ’17 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 0.9% YOY, finishing at the highest seasonal figure on record. Commercial disappearance of cheese has finished higher over four of the past five months through December. American cheese disappearance increased 2.5% YOY, more than offsetting a 0.2% YOY decline in other-than-American cheese disappearance experienced throughout the month. Total domestic cheese demand increased 1.2% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 4.4% decline in export volumes. The YOY decline in cheese export figures was the first experienced throughout the past 15 months. ’16-’17 annual U.S. cheese disappearance increased 2.6% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 1.6% to a record high while export demand finished up 20.5%, reaching a three year high. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance is up an additional 1.9% throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Dec ’17 U.S. cheese combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month. The increase in cheese stocks was the first experienced throughout the five months. U.S. cheese stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of October and November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Remains Strong, Finishes up 16.0% YOY
Dec ’17 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance remained higher on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month, finishing up 16.0%. Domestic dry whey demand increased 24.5% YOY throughout the month while export demand finished 9.3% higher. The YOY increase in dry whey export volumes was the 16th experienced throughout the past 18 months. ’16-’17 annual U.S. dry whey disappearance declined 1.9% YOY from the four year high experienced during the previous year as a 16.9% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 22.2% increase in export demand. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance is up an additional 14.9% throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Dec ’17 disappearance of U.S. dry whey outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining from the previous month.
WPC – Disappearance Declines to a Five Year Seasonal Low, Finishes Down 10.9%
Dec ’17 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 10.9% YOY, finishing at a five year seasonal low for the month of December. Domestic WPC demand declined 50.2% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 24.0% increase in export volumes. ’16-’17 annual U.S. WPC disappearance declined 5.3% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season as a 13.8% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 2.0% increase in export demand. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance is down an additional 2.8% throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Dec ’17 U.S. WPC combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing for the tenth consecutive month.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Finishes Slightly Higher on Strong Export Demand, Finishes up 0.5% YOY
Dec ’17 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 0.5% YOY, finishing higher for the second time in the past three months. NFDM/SMP domestic disappearance declined 30.2% YOY throughout the month, however the decline was more than offset by a 29.1% increase in export volumes. ’16-’17 annual U.S. NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 0.5% YOY to a three year low as a 14.9% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 11.8% increase in export volumes experienced throughout the production season. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded slightly throughout the first quarter of the production season, increasing by 0.2%.
Dec ’17 U.S. NFDM/SMP combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing for the second consecutive month.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline 1.1% YOY on Continued Weak Fat-Free Sales
Nov ’17 U.S. fluid milk sales of 4.13 billion pounds remained lower on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month, finishing down 1.1%. Sales of whole milk increased 3.3% YOY throughout the month however fat-free milk sales remained weak, declining by 10.2%. ’16-’17 annual U.S. total fluid milk sales declined to a record low for the eighth consecutive year, finished down 1.7% YOY. Annual whole milk sales finished up 3.1% however annual fat-free milk sales declined 11.8% throughout the year.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk increased on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Nov ’17 as total consumption finished up 0.7%. ’16-’17 annual total fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk increased 0.2% YOY, finishing at a four year high.
Overall, domestic commercial disappearance declined most significantly on an absolute basis for NFDM/SMP, followed by WPC, while increasing for cheese and dry whey. Export volumes strengthened most significantly on an absolute basis for NFDM/SMP, followed by WPC and dry whey.