U.S. Dairy Dry Product Stocks Update – Mar ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jan ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
Jan ’18 month-end dry whey stocks declined 12.1% MOM but remained 28.6% higher YOY, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of January and the ninth largest monthly figure on record. Dry whey stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over eight consecutive months through January. The MOM decline in dry whey stocks of 11.9 million pounds, or 12.1%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average December – January seasonal build in dry whey stocks of 0.8 million pounds, or 1.9%. Stocks declined despite dry whey production increasing by 7.0% MOM on a daily average basis and 8.5% YOY throughout Jan ’18.
On a days of usage basis, Jan ’18 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of January, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 17.7% YOY.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Increase to a Record Monthly High, Finish up 50.0% YOY
Jan ’18 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks increased 6.3% MOM and 50.0% YOY, finishing at a new monthly record high figure. NFDM stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months through January. The MOM build in NFDM stocks of 20.1 million pounds, or 6.3%, was significantly greater than the ten year average December – January seasonal build in NFDM stocks of 4.0 million pounds, or 2.2%. NFDM production declined 1.2% MOM on a daily average basis but remained 5.4% higher on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’18, contributing to the seasonal build in stocks.
On a days of usage basis, Jan ’18 U.S. NFDM stocks also remained higher on a YOY basis. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of January, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 58.0% YOY.
- Jan ’18 U.S. dry whey stocks declined contraseasonally from the previous month but remained at a record high seasonal level, finishing 28.6% above the previous year volumes.
- Jan ’18 U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks increased to a new monthly record high, finishing 50.0% above the previous year volumes. Nonfat dry milk stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months through January.
Jan ’18 month-end dry whey stocks declined 12.1% MOM but remained 28.6% higher YOY, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of January and the ninth largest monthly figure on record. Dry whey stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over eight consecutive months through January. The MOM decline in dry whey stocks of 11.9 million pounds, or 12.1%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average December – January seasonal build in dry whey stocks of 0.8 million pounds, or 1.9%. Stocks declined despite dry whey production increasing by 7.0% MOM on a daily average basis and 8.5% YOY throughout Jan ’18.
On a days of usage basis, Jan ’18 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of January, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 17.7% YOY.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Increase to a Record Monthly High, Finish up 50.0% YOY
Jan ’18 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks increased 6.3% MOM and 50.0% YOY, finishing at a new monthly record high figure. NFDM stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months through January. The MOM build in NFDM stocks of 20.1 million pounds, or 6.3%, was significantly greater than the ten year average December – January seasonal build in NFDM stocks of 4.0 million pounds, or 2.2%. NFDM production declined 1.2% MOM on a daily average basis but remained 5.4% higher on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’18, contributing to the seasonal build in stocks.
On a days of usage basis, Jan ’18 U.S. NFDM stocks also remained higher on a YOY basis. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of January, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 58.0% YOY.