EIA Drilling Productivity Report Update – Mar ’18
According to the EIA’s February Drilling Productivity Report, U.S. oil output is expected to continue to increase through future months. The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation, estimates of drilling productivity, and estimated changes in production from existing wells to provide estimated changes in oil production for the seven key regions shown below.
Mar ’18 production levels were revised 1.0% higher than previously forecasted and are expected to finish 105,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 1.6%, above Feb ’18 production levels. Apr ’18 production levels are expected to increase an additional 131,000 bpd, or 1.9%, from the Mar ’18 revised production levels to 6.95 million bpd, finishing at the highest figure on record. Apr ’18 production forecasts are expected to finish higher on a YOY basis for the 13th consecutive month, up 25.9% from the previous year levels.
The Apr ’18 projected MOM increase in oil production would be the 16th experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past six months on an absolute basis.
Oil production is expected to remain strong within the Permian region (+2.6% MOM), while production is also expected to increase significantly MOM within the Eagle Ford (+1.8%), Niobrara (+2.1%) and Bakken (+1.0%) regions. The aforementioned regions accounted for over 95% of the total expected YOY gains in production during Apr ’18.
U.S. drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells continue to set new highs since the figures began being compiled in Dec ’13. DUC wells have been drilled by producers, but have not yet been made ready for production. The Feb ’18 DUC wells figure of 7,601 finished 1.5% above the previous month, driven higher by a sharp increase in Permian DUC wells.
DUC wells, particularly in the Permian, Eagle Ford and Anadarko regions, will likely contribute to additional oil production heading into the second quarter of 2018.
Mar ’18 production levels were revised 1.0% higher than previously forecasted and are expected to finish 105,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 1.6%, above Feb ’18 production levels. Apr ’18 production levels are expected to increase an additional 131,000 bpd, or 1.9%, from the Mar ’18 revised production levels to 6.95 million bpd, finishing at the highest figure on record. Apr ’18 production forecasts are expected to finish higher on a YOY basis for the 13th consecutive month, up 25.9% from the previous year levels.
The Apr ’18 projected MOM increase in oil production would be the 16th experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past six months on an absolute basis.
Oil production is expected to remain strong within the Permian region (+2.6% MOM), while production is also expected to increase significantly MOM within the Eagle Ford (+1.8%), Niobrara (+2.1%) and Bakken (+1.0%) regions. The aforementioned regions accounted for over 95% of the total expected YOY gains in production during Apr ’18.
U.S. drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells continue to set new highs since the figures began being compiled in Dec ’13. DUC wells have been drilled by producers, but have not yet been made ready for production. The Feb ’18 DUC wells figure of 7,601 finished 1.5% above the previous month, driven higher by a sharp increase in Permian DUC wells.
DUC wells, particularly in the Permian, Eagle Ford and Anadarko regions, will likely contribute to additional oil production heading into the second quarter of 2018.