U.S. Dairy Exports Update – May ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy export figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
Cheese – Export Volumes Increase YOY for the 17th Time in the Past 18 Months, Finish up 8.7%
Mar ’18 U.S. cheese export volumes finished higher on a YOY basis for the 17th time in the past 18 months, finishing up 8.7% to a three year seasonal high for the month of March. Cheddar cheese export volumes increased 83.6% YOY, finishing higher for the 14th consecutive month and more than offsetting a 1.6% YOY decline in other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes experienced throughout the month.
Mar ’18 YOY gains in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to South Korea, followed by volumes destined to Japan and China. Cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and Canada finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual cheese export volumes finished up 20.5% YOY to a three year high while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 8.9% throughout the first half of the production season.
Dry Whey – Exports Increase 26.0% YOY, Finish at a Seven Year March Seasonal High
Mar ’18 U.S. dry whey export volumes increased 26.0% YOY, finishing higher for the 19th time in the past 21 months. Mar ’18 dry whey export volumes reached a seven year seasonal high for the month of March, finishing 42.1% above three year average seasonal figures. Mar ’18 YOY increases in dry whey export volumes were led by product destined to the Philippines, followed by volumes destined to Morocco and Japan. The aforementioned countries combined to account for over two thirds of the total YOY increase in dry whey exports experienced throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual dry whey export volumes finished up 22.2% YOY to a three year high while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 16.7% throughout the first half of the production season.
WPC – Exports Increase 47.2% YOY to a New Monthly Record High
Mar ’18 whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes increased 47.2% YOY, finishing higher for the sixth consecutive month and reaching a new monthly record high. Mar ’18 WPC export volumes finished 84.9% above three year average seasonal figures for the month of March. ’16-’17 annual WPC export volumes finished up 5.4% YOY, reaching a record annual high level for the second consecutive year, while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 17.7% throughout the first half of the production season.
NFDM/SMP – Exports Increase 37.2% YOY, Finish at a Record March Seasonal High
Mar ’18 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) increased 37.2% YOY, finishing higher for the fifth consecutive month. Mar ’18 NFDM/SMP export volumes reached a record seasonal high for the month of March, finishing 37.7% above three year average seasonal figures. U.S. NFDM/SMP prices remained below international averages prices for the 39th consecutive month during Mar ’18, trading at a 15.2% discount to average Oceania and EU-28 prices throughout the month.
Mar ’18 YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, followed by volumes destined to Indonesia and Vietnam. Export volumes destined to China, Peru and Columbia declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual NFDM/SMP exports finished up 11.8% YOY to a record annual high while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 7.4% throughout the first half of the production season.
U.S. butterfat, cheese, dry whey and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production all finished higher than the previous year during Mar ’18. Mar ’18 NFDM/SMP export volumes finished most significantly higher on a percentage of production basis throughout the month.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were equivalent to 17.3% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Mar ’18 while dairy import volumes were equivalent to 3.0% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Mar ’18 net dairy trade finished 36.2% higher YOY, increasing for the fifth consecutive month and reaching a three and a half year high overall.
Mar ’18 U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased 22.7% YOY, finishing higher for the fifth consecutive month and reaching a three and a half year high overall. ’16-’17 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded by 8.1% from the four year low experienced during the previous year, despite declining by 5.3% over the final third of the production season. ’17-’18 YTD dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids are up an additional 6.8% throughout the first half of the production season.
Mar ’18 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 16.7% YOY, finishing lower for the tenth time in the past 11 months and reaching a three and a half year low overall. ’16-’17 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production finished 6.8% below the eight year high experienced during the previous year and are down an additional 16.7% throughout the first half of the ’17-’18 production season.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP and dry whey continues to outpace that of cheese and butter as dry product import volumes remain minimal. Net cheese trade volumes approached dry whey net trade volumes throughout the month, however, while the U.S. finished as a slight net exporter of butter for just the third time in the past three years.
- U.S. butterfat export volumes increased 148.3% YOY, finishing higher for the 11th time in the past 12 months. U.S. butterfat export volumes reached a four year seasonal high for the month of March, exceeding import volumes for just the third time in the past three years.
- U.S. cheese export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 17th time in the past 18 months, finishing up 8.7%, while U.S. dry whey export volumes increased 26.0% YOY, finishing higher for the 19th time in the past 21 months. U.S. whey protein concentrate export volumes increased 47.2% YOY, reached a new monthly record high, while nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder export volumes increased 37.2% YOY, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of March.
- Net dairy trade on a percentage of total U.S. milk-solids production basis finished higher YOY for the fifth consecutive month, increasing by 36.2%. Export volumes on a percentage of milk-solids production basis reached a three and a half year high throughout the month while import volumes on a percentage of milk-solids production basis reached a three and a half year low.
Cheese – Export Volumes Increase YOY for the 17th Time in the Past 18 Months, Finish up 8.7%
Mar ’18 U.S. cheese export volumes finished higher on a YOY basis for the 17th time in the past 18 months, finishing up 8.7% to a three year seasonal high for the month of March. Cheddar cheese export volumes increased 83.6% YOY, finishing higher for the 14th consecutive month and more than offsetting a 1.6% YOY decline in other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes experienced throughout the month.
Mar ’18 YOY gains in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to South Korea, followed by volumes destined to Japan and China. Cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and Canada finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual cheese export volumes finished up 20.5% YOY to a three year high while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 8.9% throughout the first half of the production season.
Dry Whey – Exports Increase 26.0% YOY, Finish at a Seven Year March Seasonal High
Mar ’18 U.S. dry whey export volumes increased 26.0% YOY, finishing higher for the 19th time in the past 21 months. Mar ’18 dry whey export volumes reached a seven year seasonal high for the month of March, finishing 42.1% above three year average seasonal figures. Mar ’18 YOY increases in dry whey export volumes were led by product destined to the Philippines, followed by volumes destined to Morocco and Japan. The aforementioned countries combined to account for over two thirds of the total YOY increase in dry whey exports experienced throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual dry whey export volumes finished up 22.2% YOY to a three year high while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 16.7% throughout the first half of the production season.
WPC – Exports Increase 47.2% YOY to a New Monthly Record High
Mar ’18 whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes increased 47.2% YOY, finishing higher for the sixth consecutive month and reaching a new monthly record high. Mar ’18 WPC export volumes finished 84.9% above three year average seasonal figures for the month of March. ’16-’17 annual WPC export volumes finished up 5.4% YOY, reaching a record annual high level for the second consecutive year, while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 17.7% throughout the first half of the production season.
NFDM/SMP – Exports Increase 37.2% YOY, Finish at a Record March Seasonal High
Mar ’18 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) increased 37.2% YOY, finishing higher for the fifth consecutive month. Mar ’18 NFDM/SMP export volumes reached a record seasonal high for the month of March, finishing 37.7% above three year average seasonal figures. U.S. NFDM/SMP prices remained below international averages prices for the 39th consecutive month during Mar ’18, trading at a 15.2% discount to average Oceania and EU-28 prices throughout the month.
Mar ’18 YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, followed by volumes destined to Indonesia and Vietnam. Export volumes destined to China, Peru and Columbia declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual NFDM/SMP exports finished up 11.8% YOY to a record annual high while ’17-’18 YTD figures are up an additional 7.4% throughout the first half of the production season.
U.S. butterfat, cheese, dry whey and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production all finished higher than the previous year during Mar ’18. Mar ’18 NFDM/SMP export volumes finished most significantly higher on a percentage of production basis throughout the month.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were equivalent to 17.3% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Mar ’18 while dairy import volumes were equivalent to 3.0% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Mar ’18 net dairy trade finished 36.2% higher YOY, increasing for the fifth consecutive month and reaching a three and a half year high overall.
Mar ’18 U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased 22.7% YOY, finishing higher for the fifth consecutive month and reaching a three and a half year high overall. ’16-’17 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded by 8.1% from the four year low experienced during the previous year, despite declining by 5.3% over the final third of the production season. ’17-’18 YTD dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids are up an additional 6.8% throughout the first half of the production season.
Mar ’18 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 16.7% YOY, finishing lower for the tenth time in the past 11 months and reaching a three and a half year low overall. ’16-’17 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production finished 6.8% below the eight year high experienced during the previous year and are down an additional 16.7% throughout the first half of the ’17-’18 production season.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP and dry whey continues to outpace that of cheese and butter as dry product import volumes remain minimal. Net cheese trade volumes approached dry whey net trade volumes throughout the month, however, while the U.S. finished as a slight net exporter of butter for just the third time in the past three years.