U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Update – May ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
Beef & Veal – Exports Increase to a Record Seasonal High, Net Trade Remains Slightly Positive
Mar ’18 U.S. beef export volumes increased 11.4% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 21st consecutive month. Overall, beef export volumes reached a record seasonal high for the month of March, finishing 28.8% above three year average seasonal figures. Of the major export destinations, YOY increases in export volumes on an absolute basis were led by shipments destined to South Korea (+38.0%), followed by shipments destined to China, Hong Kong and Taiwan (+25.4%) and Japan (+1.6%). U.S. beef export volumes destined to South Korea, China and Japan more than offset declines in export volumes destined to Canada (-14.2%) and Mexico (-6.8%). U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 85% of all beef & veal export volumes during Mar ’18.
Mar ’18 U.S. beef & veal import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past four months, finishing down 6.0%. The increase in beef & veal export volumes, coupled with the decline in import volumes, contributed to net beef & veal trade remaining at a positive level for the sixth time in the past seven months. ’16-’17 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a negative level for the fourth consecutive year, despite export volumes reaching a record annual high, however ’17-’18 YTD net trade is up 135.1% YOY throughout the first half of the production season.
Broilers – Net Trade Declines YOY for the Third Time in the Past Four Months, Finishes Down 0.4%
Mar ’18 U.S. broiler export volumes declined 0.1% YOY, finishing lower for the third time in the past four months. Broiler export volumes remained 3.8% above three year average seasonal figures for the month of March, however. Export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong and Taiwan (+46.1%), Georgia (+881.4%) and Vietnam (+35.1%) finished most significantly higher on an absolute basis throughout the month. YOY declines in broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to South Africa (-35.1%), Turkey (-58.8%) and Mexico (-5.8%).
U.S. broiler import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months during Mar ’18, finishing up 15.7%. Broiler import volumes remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, however, as Mar ’18 imports amounted to just 2.0% of export volumes. The YOY decline in broiler export volumes, coupled with the YOY increase in import volumes, resulted in U.S. broiler net trade finishing down 0.4% YOY during Mar ’18. The YOY decline in net broiler trade was the third experienced throughout the past four months. ’16-’17 annual net broiler trade finished up 5.0% YOY to a three year high, while ’17-’18 YTD net trade remains up an additional 1.9% throughout the first half of the production season, despite the most recent YOY decline.
Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers finished higher on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past six months, increasing by 56.4 million pounds, or 5.9%. YOY increase in net trade of pork and beef more than offset a slight YOY decline in the net trade of broilers experienced throughout the month.
- Mar ’18 net pork trade increased on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month, finishing up 4.2%. Pork export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 22nd time in the past 23 months, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of March.
- Net beef & veal trade finished at a positive level for the sixth time in the past seven months during Mar ’18 as export volumes reached a record seasonal high for the month of March.
- Net broiler trade declined on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months during Mar ’18, finishing down 0.4%.
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