U.S. Milk Production Update – May ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. milk production figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Apr ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. milk production remained significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the final months of 2014, however production growth decelerated over the majority of 2015. The growth rate in U.S. milk production once again strengthened over the ’16-’17 production season however the Apr ’18 YOY growth rate of 0.6% was the smallest experienced throughout the past 27 months on a percentage basis.
YOY production gains on a percentage basis were led by Colorado (+9.9%), followed by Texas (+7.0%) and Utah (+5.5%). Production finished lower on a YOY basis throughout Virginia, Vermont, Oregon, Ohio, New York, Minnesota, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Illinois.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during Apr ’18, finishing up 0.4%. California milk production had declined on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months prior to the four most recent YOY gains.
Five of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY gains in production throughout Apr ’18, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states finished higher by a weighted average of 0.6% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for over 70% of the total U.S. milk production experienced throughout the month.
YOY production gains on an absolute basis were led by Texas, followed by Idaho and Colorado. Texas accounted for just under 70% of the total YOY gain in U.S. milk production experienced throughout the month. Declines in production were most significant throughout Wisconsin, Minnesota and New York.
Overall, the Apr ’18 U.S. milk cow herd declined 6,000 head from the originally stated Mar ’18 figure and 2,000 head from the Mar ’18 revised figure. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.400 million head, which is 8,000 head more than April of last year but 8,000 head below the 22 year highs experienced over recent months.
The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the 30th consecutive month, finishing 0.5% above the previous year. Yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing up 1.4%, however yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois declined 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Growth in milk per cow productivity gains outweighed gains in herd expansion for the fifth consecutive month during Apr ’18. 82% of the increase in milk production was the result of higher productivity per cow during Apr ’18 while growth attributed to herd expansion accounted for 18% percent of the Apr ’18 milk production growth.
MOM declines in the Michigan, Ohio, Virginia and Vermont milk cow herds more than offset increases in the Texas and Kansas milk cow herds experienced during Apr ’18.
YOY increases in milk cow herds were led by Colorado (+12,000 head), followed by Texas (+10,000 head) and Idaho (+9,000 head). California (-19,000 head) experienced the largest YOY reduction in their milk cow herd throughout the month.
- U.S. milk production remained higher on a YOY basis for the 52nd consecutive month during Apr ’18, finishing up 0.6% to a new monthly record high. The YOY increase in milk production was the lowest experienced throughout the past 27 months, however, as production declines were largely experienced across the Upper Midwest and Eastern U.S.
- The Apr ’18 U.S. dairy cow herd declined 6,000 head from the originally stated Mar ’18 figure and 2,000 head from the Mar ’18 revised figure. The U.S. dairy cow herd remains 8,000 head above previous year figures but has declined 8,000 head from the recently experienced 22 year high levels.
- U.S. milk per cow yields increased on a YOY basis for the 30th consecutive month during Apr ’18, finishing up 0.5%, as higher Western yields more than offset declining Midwestern yields.
U.S. milk production remained significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the final months of 2014, however production growth decelerated over the majority of 2015. The growth rate in U.S. milk production once again strengthened over the ’16-’17 production season however the Apr ’18 YOY growth rate of 0.6% was the smallest experienced throughout the past 27 months on a percentage basis.
YOY production gains on a percentage basis were led by Colorado (+9.9%), followed by Texas (+7.0%) and Utah (+5.5%). Production finished lower on a YOY basis throughout Virginia, Vermont, Oregon, Ohio, New York, Minnesota, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Illinois.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during Apr ’18, finishing up 0.4%. California milk production had declined on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months prior to the four most recent YOY gains.
Five of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY gains in production throughout Apr ’18, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states finished higher by a weighted average of 0.6% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for over 70% of the total U.S. milk production experienced throughout the month.
YOY production gains on an absolute basis were led by Texas, followed by Idaho and Colorado. Texas accounted for just under 70% of the total YOY gain in U.S. milk production experienced throughout the month. Declines in production were most significant throughout Wisconsin, Minnesota and New York.
Overall, the Apr ’18 U.S. milk cow herd declined 6,000 head from the originally stated Mar ’18 figure and 2,000 head from the Mar ’18 revised figure. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.400 million head, which is 8,000 head more than April of last year but 8,000 head below the 22 year highs experienced over recent months.
The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the 30th consecutive month, finishing 0.5% above the previous year. Yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing up 1.4%, however yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois declined 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Growth in milk per cow productivity gains outweighed gains in herd expansion for the fifth consecutive month during Apr ’18. 82% of the increase in milk production was the result of higher productivity per cow during Apr ’18 while growth attributed to herd expansion accounted for 18% percent of the Apr ’18 milk production growth.
MOM declines in the Michigan, Ohio, Virginia and Vermont milk cow herds more than offset increases in the Texas and Kansas milk cow herds experienced during Apr ’18.
YOY increases in milk cow herds were led by Colorado (+12,000 head), followed by Texas (+10,000 head) and Idaho (+9,000 head). California (-19,000 head) experienced the largest YOY reduction in their milk cow herd throughout the month.