U.S. Dairy Cold Storage Update – May ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Apr ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to USDA, Apr ’18 U.S. butter stocks increased 12.2% MOM and 5.2% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months. Butter stocks reached a five year seasonal high for the month of April, finishing 12.4% above three year average figures. Apr ’18 butter stock volumes were the second largest seasonal figure experienced throughout the past 25 years.
The MOM seasonal build in butter stocks of 33.4 million pounds, or 12.2%, was fairly consistent with the ten year average March – April seasonal build of 27.8 million pounds, or 12.4%. U.S. butter stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year. The most recent seasonal drawdown in butter stocks of 154.8 million pounds, occurring from Jun ’17 – Nov ’17, was larger than the ten year average seasonal drawdown of 140.2 million pounds.
On a days of usage basis, Apr ’18 U.S. butter stocks remained lower YOY for the third consecutive month, however. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of April, butter stocks on a days of usage basis finished down 0.7% YOY.
Cheese – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 3.3% YOY
Apr ’18 U.S. cheese stocks increased 1.7% MOM and 3.3% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 42nd consecutive month and reaching a record seasonal high for the month of April. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was aided by a 2.2% downward revision to previous year volumes.
The MOM seasonal build in cheese stocks of 22.1 million pounds, or 1.7%, was fairly consistent with the ten year average March – April seasonal build of 21.7 million pounds, or 2.1%. U.S. cheese stocks typically exhibit a smaller degree of MOM and YOY variation than U.S. butter stocks. Cheese stocks do not have as large of a seasonal build as butter stocks, with the five year average seasonal build in cheese stocks representing a 12.7% increase in stocks vs. a 121.1% increase in butter stocks. The reduced seasonality exhibited in U.S. cheese stocks has led to less volatile YOY variation, with cheese stocks having a five year average absolute YOY change of 5.3% compared to 26.3% for U.S. butter stocks.
On a days of usage basis, Apr ’18 U.S. cheese stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of April, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the 14th time in the past 15 months, finishing up 1.9%.
- Apr ’18 U.S. butter stocks increased on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months, finishing 5.2% above the previous year. Butter stocks finished at a five year seasonal high for the month of April.
- Apr ’18 U.S. cheese stocks increased 3.3% YOY, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of April. Cheese stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over 42 consecutive months through April.
According to USDA, Apr ’18 U.S. butter stocks increased 12.2% MOM and 5.2% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months. Butter stocks reached a five year seasonal high for the month of April, finishing 12.4% above three year average figures. Apr ’18 butter stock volumes were the second largest seasonal figure experienced throughout the past 25 years.
The MOM seasonal build in butter stocks of 33.4 million pounds, or 12.2%, was fairly consistent with the ten year average March – April seasonal build of 27.8 million pounds, or 12.4%. U.S. butter stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year. The most recent seasonal drawdown in butter stocks of 154.8 million pounds, occurring from Jun ’17 – Nov ’17, was larger than the ten year average seasonal drawdown of 140.2 million pounds.
On a days of usage basis, Apr ’18 U.S. butter stocks remained lower YOY for the third consecutive month, however. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of April, butter stocks on a days of usage basis finished down 0.7% YOY.
Cheese – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 3.3% YOY
Apr ’18 U.S. cheese stocks increased 1.7% MOM and 3.3% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 42nd consecutive month and reaching a record seasonal high for the month of April. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was aided by a 2.2% downward revision to previous year volumes.
The MOM seasonal build in cheese stocks of 22.1 million pounds, or 1.7%, was fairly consistent with the ten year average March – April seasonal build of 21.7 million pounds, or 2.1%. U.S. cheese stocks typically exhibit a smaller degree of MOM and YOY variation than U.S. butter stocks. Cheese stocks do not have as large of a seasonal build as butter stocks, with the five year average seasonal build in cheese stocks representing a 12.7% increase in stocks vs. a 121.1% increase in butter stocks. The reduced seasonality exhibited in U.S. cheese stocks has led to less volatile YOY variation, with cheese stocks having a five year average absolute YOY change of 5.3% compared to 26.3% for U.S. butter stocks.
On a days of usage basis, Apr ’18 U.S. cheese stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of April, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the 14th time in the past 15 months, finishing up 1.9%.