U.S. Milk Production Update – Jun ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. milk production figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through May ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. milk production remained significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the final months of 2014, however production growth decelerated over the majority of 2015. The growth rate in U.S. milk production once again strengthened over the ’16-’17 production season however the May ’18 YOY growth rate of 0.8% was the second smallest experienced throughout the past 28 months on a percentage basis, trailing only the Apr ’18 growth rate.
YOY production gains on a percentage basis were led by Colorado (+11.6%), followed by Kansas (+9.7%) and Texas (+6.6%). Production finished lower on a YOY basis throughout Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Oregon, Ohio, New York, Illinois and Michigan while remaining flat throughout Minnesota and New Mexico.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during May ’18, finishing up 0.5%. California milk production had declined on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months prior to the five most recent YOY gains.
Five of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY gains in production throughout May ’18, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states finished higher by a weighted average of 0.7% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for over 70% of the total U.S. milk production experienced throughout the month.
YOY production gains on an absolute basis were led by Texas, followed by Colorado, Kansas and Wisconsin. Texas and Colorado combined to account for 75% of the total YOY gain in U.S. milk production experienced throughout the month. Declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Florida, New York and Pennsylvania.
Overall, the May ’18 U.S. milk cow herd increased 4,000 head from the originally stated Apr ’18 figure and 2,000 head from the Apr ’18 revised figure. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.404 million head, which is 3,000 head more than May of last year but 4,000 head below the 22 year highs experienced over recent months.
The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the 31st consecutive month, finishing 0.7% above the previous year. Yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month, finishing up 0.7%, while yields rebounded throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois, finishing up 0.4% YOY.
Growth in milk per cow productivity gains outweighed gains in herd expansion for the sixth consecutive month during May ’18. 95% of the increase in milk production was the result of higher productivity per cow during May ’18 while growth attributed to herd expansion accounted for 5% percent of the May ’18 milk production growth.
MOM increases in the Texas, Colorado, Utah and South Dakota milk cow herds more than offset declines in the New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Florida milk cow herds experienced during May ’18.
May ’18 YOY increases in milk cow herds continue to be led by Colorado (+16,000 head), followed by Texas (+12,000 head) and Kansas (+7,000 head). California (-18,000 head) experienced the largest YOY reduction in their milk cow herd throughout the month.
- U.S. milk production remained higher on a YOY basis for the 53rd consecutive month during May ’18, finishing up 0.8% to a new monthly record high. The YOY increase in milk production was the second smallest experienced throughout the past 28 months, however, as production declines were largely experienced across the Upper Midwestern the Eastern U.S.
- The May ’18 U.S. dairy cow herd increased 4,000 head from the originally stated Apr ’18 figure and 2,000 head from the Apr ’18 revised figure. The U.S. dairy cow herd finished 3,000 head above previous year figures but remained 4,000 head below the recently experienced 22 year high levels.
- U.S. milk per cow yields increased on a YOY basis for the 31st consecutive month during May ’18, finishing up 0.7%, as Western yields continued to grow while Midwestern yields rebounded from the previous month.
U.S. milk production remained significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the final months of 2014, however production growth decelerated over the majority of 2015. The growth rate in U.S. milk production once again strengthened over the ’16-’17 production season however the May ’18 YOY growth rate of 0.8% was the second smallest experienced throughout the past 28 months on a percentage basis, trailing only the Apr ’18 growth rate.
YOY production gains on a percentage basis were led by Colorado (+11.6%), followed by Kansas (+9.7%) and Texas (+6.6%). Production finished lower on a YOY basis throughout Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Oregon, Ohio, New York, Illinois and Michigan while remaining flat throughout Minnesota and New Mexico.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during May ’18, finishing up 0.5%. California milk production had declined on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months prior to the five most recent YOY gains.
Five of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY gains in production throughout May ’18, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states finished higher by a weighted average of 0.7% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for over 70% of the total U.S. milk production experienced throughout the month.
YOY production gains on an absolute basis were led by Texas, followed by Colorado, Kansas and Wisconsin. Texas and Colorado combined to account for 75% of the total YOY gain in U.S. milk production experienced throughout the month. Declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Florida, New York and Pennsylvania.
Overall, the May ’18 U.S. milk cow herd increased 4,000 head from the originally stated Apr ’18 figure and 2,000 head from the Apr ’18 revised figure. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.404 million head, which is 3,000 head more than May of last year but 4,000 head below the 22 year highs experienced over recent months.
The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the 31st consecutive month, finishing 0.7% above the previous year. Yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month, finishing up 0.7%, while yields rebounded throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois, finishing up 0.4% YOY.
Growth in milk per cow productivity gains outweighed gains in herd expansion for the sixth consecutive month during May ’18. 95% of the increase in milk production was the result of higher productivity per cow during May ’18 while growth attributed to herd expansion accounted for 5% percent of the May ’18 milk production growth.
MOM increases in the Texas, Colorado, Utah and South Dakota milk cow herds more than offset declines in the New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Florida milk cow herds experienced during May ’18.
May ’18 YOY increases in milk cow herds continue to be led by Colorado (+16,000 head), followed by Texas (+12,000 head) and Kansas (+7,000 head). California (-18,000 head) experienced the largest YOY reduction in their milk cow herd throughout the month.