U.S. Dairy Cold Storage Update – Jun ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through May ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to USDA, May ’18 U.S. butter stocks increased 10.2% MOM and 8.0% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past six months. Butter stocks reached a 25 year seasonal high for the month of May, finishing 12.5% above three year average figures.
The MOM seasonal build in butter stocks of 31.5 million pounds, or 10.2%, was greater than the ten year average April – May seasonal build of 19.1 million pounds, or 8.6%. U.S. butter stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year. The most recent seasonal drawdown in butter stocks of 154.8 million pounds, occurring from Jun ’17 – Nov ’17, was larger than the ten year average seasonal drawdown of 140.2 million pounds.
On a days of usage basis, May ’18 U.S. butter stocks finished lower YOY for the first time in the past three months, however. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of May, butter stocks on a days of usage basis finished down 4.0% YOY.
Cheese – Stocks Increase to a New Monthly Record High Level, Finish up 5.9% YOY
May ’18 U.S. cheese stocks increased 3.0% MOM and 5.9% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 43rd consecutive month and reaching a new monthly record high level. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was supplemented by a 1.6% downward revision to previous year volumes.
The MOM seasonal build in cheese stocks of 40.6 million pounds, or 3.0%, was greater than the ten year average April – May seasonal build of 19.9 million pounds, or 1.9%. U.S. cheese stocks typically exhibit a smaller degree of MOM and YOY variation than U.S. butter stocks. Cheese stocks do not have as large of a seasonal build as butter stocks, with the five year average seasonal build in cheese stocks representing a 12.7% increase in stocks vs. a 121.1% increase in butter stocks. The reduced seasonality exhibited in U.S. cheese stocks has led to less volatile YOY variation, with cheese stocks having a five year average absolute YOY change of 5.3% compared to 26.3% for U.S. butter stocks.
On a days of usage basis, May ’18 U.S. cheese stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of May, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the tenth time in the past 12 months, finishing up 1.9%.
- May ’18 U.S. butter stocks increased on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past six months, finishing 8.0% above the previous year. Butter stocks finished at a 25 year seasonal high for the month of May.
- May ’18 U.S. cheese stocks increased 5.9% YOY, finishing at a new monthly record high level. Cheese stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over 43 consecutive months through May.
According to USDA, May ’18 U.S. butter stocks increased 10.2% MOM and 8.0% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past six months. Butter stocks reached a 25 year seasonal high for the month of May, finishing 12.5% above three year average figures.
The MOM seasonal build in butter stocks of 31.5 million pounds, or 10.2%, was greater than the ten year average April – May seasonal build of 19.1 million pounds, or 8.6%. U.S. butter stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year. The most recent seasonal drawdown in butter stocks of 154.8 million pounds, occurring from Jun ’17 – Nov ’17, was larger than the ten year average seasonal drawdown of 140.2 million pounds.
On a days of usage basis, May ’18 U.S. butter stocks finished lower YOY for the first time in the past three months, however. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of May, butter stocks on a days of usage basis finished down 4.0% YOY.
Cheese – Stocks Increase to a New Monthly Record High Level, Finish up 5.9% YOY
May ’18 U.S. cheese stocks increased 3.0% MOM and 5.9% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 43rd consecutive month and reaching a new monthly record high level. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was supplemented by a 1.6% downward revision to previous year volumes.
The MOM seasonal build in cheese stocks of 40.6 million pounds, or 3.0%, was greater than the ten year average April – May seasonal build of 19.9 million pounds, or 1.9%. U.S. cheese stocks typically exhibit a smaller degree of MOM and YOY variation than U.S. butter stocks. Cheese stocks do not have as large of a seasonal build as butter stocks, with the five year average seasonal build in cheese stocks representing a 12.7% increase in stocks vs. a 121.1% increase in butter stocks. The reduced seasonality exhibited in U.S. cheese stocks has led to less volatile YOY variation, with cheese stocks having a five year average absolute YOY change of 5.3% compared to 26.3% for U.S. butter stocks.
On a days of usage basis, May ’18 U.S. cheese stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of May, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the tenth time in the past 12 months, finishing up 1.9%.