According to the EIA’s July Drilling Productivity Report, U.S. oil output is expected to continue to increase through future months. The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation, estimates of drilling productivity, and estimated changes in production from existing wells to provide estimated changes in oil production for the seven key regions shown below.

Jul ’18 production levels were revised 0.2% below levels previously forecasted but remained 139,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 1.9%, above Jun ’18 production levels. Aug ’18 production levels are expected to increase an additional 144,000 bpd, or 2.0%, from the Jul ’18 revised production levels to 7.47 million bpd, finishing at the highest figure on record. Aug ’18 production forecasts are expected to finish higher on a YOY basis for the 17^th consecutive month, up 30.7% from the previous year levels.

The Aug ’18 projected MOM increase in oil production would be the 19^th experienced in the past 20 months and the largest experienced throughout the past four months on an absolute basis.

Oil production is expected to remain strong within the Permian region (+2.2% MOM), while production is also expected to increase significantly MOM within the Eagle Ford (+2.5%), Bakken (+1.2%) and Anadarko (+1.9%) regions. The aforementioned regions accounted for over 90% of the total expected YOY gains in production during Aug ’18.

U.S. drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells continue to set new highs since the figures began being compiled in Dec ’13. DUC wells have been drilled by producers, but have not yet been made ready for production. The Jun ’18 DUC wells figure of 7,943 finished 2.5% above the previous month, driven higher by a sharp increase in Permian DUC wells.

DUC wells, particularly in the Permian and Eagle Ford regions, will likely contribute to additional oil production heading into the second half of 2018.