U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Jul ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through May ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
May ’18 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products finished higher on a skim-solids basis for the sixth consecutive month, increasing 1.4% YOY to a record seasonal high for the month of May. The increase in total skim-solids disappearance occurred despite domestic disappearance declining 2.8% YOY, finishing lower for the third consecutive month.
Butter – Disappearance Finishes Down 4.0% YOY on Poor Domestic Demand
May ’18 U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 4.0% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month. A 7.0% YOY decline in domestic butter demand more than offset a 140.1% YOY increase in export demand experienced throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual U.S. butter disappearance finished 3.4% higher YOY, reaching a three year high, as domestic butter disappearance increased 2.2%, reaching the highest figure on record. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance remains up an additional 1.6% throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
May ’18 U.S. butter combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month, finishing at a 25 year seasonal high for the month of May. The monthly increase in butter stocks was the sixth experienced in a row. U.S. butter stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Cheese – Disappearance Declines YOY for the First Time in the Past Ten Months, Finishes Down 1.8%
May ’18 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 1.8% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past ten months. American cheese disappearance declined 2.9% YOY while other-than-American cheese disappearance finished 1.0% lower throughout the month. Total domestic cheese demand declined 0.7% YOY throughout the month while export volumes finished 15.4% lower. The YOY decline in cheese export figures was just the second experienced throughout the past 20 months. ’16-’17 annual U.S. cheese disappearance increased 3.7% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.8% to a record high while export demand finished up 20.5%. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance remains up an additional 2.5% throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
May ’18 U.S. cheese combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month, finishing at a new monthly record high figure. U.S. cheese stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of October and November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Declines YOY for the First Time in the Past 11 Months, Finishes Down 9.3%
May ’18 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 9.3% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 11 months and reaching a 17 month low overall. Domestic dry whey demand declined 20.6% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 51.7% YOY increase in export volumes. The YOY increase in dry whey export volumes was the 21st experienced throughout the past 23 months. ’16-’17 annual U.S. dry whey disappearance declined 2.0% YOY from the four year high experienced during the previous year as a 16.8% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 22.0% increase in export demand. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 16.7% throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
May ’18 combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the 15 month low experienced during the previous month.
WPC – Disappearance Increases to a Record Seasonal High, Finishes up 14.9% YOY
May ’18 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 14.9% YOY, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of May. Domestic WPC demand declined 20.6% YOY throughout the month, however the decline was more than offset by a 51.7% increase in export demand. ’16-’17 annual U.S. WPC disappearance declined 5.5% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season as a 17.3% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 5.5% increase in export demand. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 6.0% throughout the first two thirds of the production season, however.
May ’18 disappearance of U.S. WPC outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the fourth consecutive month. U.S. WPC stocks had reached a record monthly high during Jan ’18, prior to declining throughout the past four months.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Remains Higher on a YOY Basis, Finishes up 3.4%
May ’18 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 3.4% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month. May ’18 NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance remained 0.9% below three year average seasonal figures for the month of May, however. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand declined 23.1% YOY throughout the month, however the decline was more than offset by a 19.0% YOY increase in export demand. ’16-’17 annual U.S. NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 0.3% YOY to a three year low as a 14.6% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 12.0% increase in export volumes. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 7.6% throughout the first two thirds of the production season, however.
May ’18 disappearance of U.S. NFDM/SMP outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the fifth consecutive month. U.S. NFDM/SMP stocks finished at a 13 month low, overall.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline 3.2% YOY on Continued Weak Fat-Free Sales
May ’18 U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 11th time in the past 12 months, finishing down 3.2% to the lowest seasonal figure on record for the month of May. Sales of whole milk increased on a YOY basis for the 12th time in the past 13 months, finishing up 0.4%, however fat-free milk sales remained weak, declining by 7.9%. ’16-’17 annual U.S. total fluid milk sales declined to a record low for the eighth consecutive year, finished down 1.7%, while ’17-’18 YTD sales have declined an additional 1.8% throughout the first two thirds of the production season. ’17-’18 YTD whole milk sales are on pace to reach an eight year high, however fat-free milk sales are on pace to finish at the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months during May ’18 as total consumption finished down 1.8%. ’16-’17 annual total fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk increased 0.2% YOY to a four year high however ’17-’18 YTD fat consumption within U.S. fluid milk has declined 0.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Domestic commercial disappearance finished lower across all products on a YOY basis throughout the month, led by NFDM/SMP disappearance, followed closely by dry whey disappearance. International commercial disappearance finished most significantly higher for NFDM/SMP while finishing most significantly lower for cheese.
- May ’18 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products declined 3.2% YOY on a milk-fat basis but remained 1.4% higher YOY on a skim-solids basis. Domestic demand declined on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis, finishing down 3.6% and 2.8%, respectively.
- May ’18 U.S. butter, cheese and dry whey commercial disappearance each declined on a YOY basis throughout the month as domestic demand finished lower YOY across all products. Whey protein concentrate and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder commercial disappearance remained higher on a YOY basis, however, despite declines in domestic demand.
- U.S. fluid milk sales finished lower on a YOY basis for the 11th time in the past 12 months during May ’18, declining by 3.2%. Sales of fat-free milk remained particularly weak, declining by 7.9% YOY throughout the month.
May ’18 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products finished higher on a skim-solids basis for the sixth consecutive month, increasing 1.4% YOY to a record seasonal high for the month of May. The increase in total skim-solids disappearance occurred despite domestic disappearance declining 2.8% YOY, finishing lower for the third consecutive month.
Butter – Disappearance Finishes Down 4.0% YOY on Poor Domestic Demand
May ’18 U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 4.0% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month. A 7.0% YOY decline in domestic butter demand more than offset a 140.1% YOY increase in export demand experienced throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual U.S. butter disappearance finished 3.4% higher YOY, reaching a three year high, as domestic butter disappearance increased 2.2%, reaching the highest figure on record. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance remains up an additional 1.6% throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
May ’18 U.S. butter combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month, finishing at a 25 year seasonal high for the month of May. The monthly increase in butter stocks was the sixth experienced in a row. U.S. butter stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Cheese – Disappearance Declines YOY for the First Time in the Past Ten Months, Finishes Down 1.8%
May ’18 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 1.8% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past ten months. American cheese disappearance declined 2.9% YOY while other-than-American cheese disappearance finished 1.0% lower throughout the month. Total domestic cheese demand declined 0.7% YOY throughout the month while export volumes finished 15.4% lower. The YOY decline in cheese export figures was just the second experienced throughout the past 20 months. ’16-’17 annual U.S. cheese disappearance increased 3.7% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.8% to a record high while export demand finished up 20.5%. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance remains up an additional 2.5% throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
May ’18 U.S. cheese combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month, finishing at a new monthly record high figure. U.S. cheese stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of October and November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Declines YOY for the First Time in the Past 11 Months, Finishes Down 9.3%
May ’18 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 9.3% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 11 months and reaching a 17 month low overall. Domestic dry whey demand declined 20.6% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 51.7% YOY increase in export volumes. The YOY increase in dry whey export volumes was the 21st experienced throughout the past 23 months. ’16-’17 annual U.S. dry whey disappearance declined 2.0% YOY from the four year high experienced during the previous year as a 16.8% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 22.0% increase in export demand. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 16.7% throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
May ’18 combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the 15 month low experienced during the previous month.
WPC – Disappearance Increases to a Record Seasonal High, Finishes up 14.9% YOY
May ’18 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 14.9% YOY, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of May. Domestic WPC demand declined 20.6% YOY throughout the month, however the decline was more than offset by a 51.7% increase in export demand. ’16-’17 annual U.S. WPC disappearance declined 5.5% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season as a 17.3% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 5.5% increase in export demand. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 6.0% throughout the first two thirds of the production season, however.
May ’18 disappearance of U.S. WPC outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the fourth consecutive month. U.S. WPC stocks had reached a record monthly high during Jan ’18, prior to declining throughout the past four months.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Remains Higher on a YOY Basis, Finishes up 3.4%
May ’18 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 3.4% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month. May ’18 NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance remained 0.9% below three year average seasonal figures for the month of May, however. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand declined 23.1% YOY throughout the month, however the decline was more than offset by a 19.0% YOY increase in export demand. ’16-’17 annual U.S. NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 0.3% YOY to a three year low as a 14.6% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 12.0% increase in export volumes. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 7.6% throughout the first two thirds of the production season, however.
May ’18 disappearance of U.S. NFDM/SMP outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the fifth consecutive month. U.S. NFDM/SMP stocks finished at a 13 month low, overall.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline 3.2% YOY on Continued Weak Fat-Free Sales
May ’18 U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 11th time in the past 12 months, finishing down 3.2% to the lowest seasonal figure on record for the month of May. Sales of whole milk increased on a YOY basis for the 12th time in the past 13 months, finishing up 0.4%, however fat-free milk sales remained weak, declining by 7.9%. ’16-’17 annual U.S. total fluid milk sales declined to a record low for the eighth consecutive year, finished down 1.7%, while ’17-’18 YTD sales have declined an additional 1.8% throughout the first two thirds of the production season. ’17-’18 YTD whole milk sales are on pace to reach an eight year high, however fat-free milk sales are on pace to finish at the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months during May ’18 as total consumption finished down 1.8%. ’16-’17 annual total fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk increased 0.2% YOY to a four year high however ’17-’18 YTD fat consumption within U.S. fluid milk has declined 0.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Domestic commercial disappearance finished lower across all products on a YOY basis throughout the month, led by NFDM/SMP disappearance, followed closely by dry whey disappearance. International commercial disappearance finished most significantly higher for NFDM/SMP while finishing most significantly lower for cheese.