Executive Summary

U.S. milk production figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jul ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. milk production remained higher on a YOY basis for the 55^th consecutive month during Jul ’18, finishing up 0.4% to a record seasonal high for the month of July. The YOY increase in milk production volumes was the second smallest experienced throughout the past 30 months on a percentage basis, however.
• The Jul ’18 U.S. milk cow herd declined 8,000 head from the previous month, finishing at a nine month low. The U.S. milk cow herd finished 8,000 head below the previous year figure and 12,000 head below the 22 year highs experienced during the early months of 2018.
• U.S. milk per cow yields increased on a YOY basis for the 33^rd consecutive month during Jul ’18, finishing up 0.5%, as Midwestern yields increased for the third consecutive month while Western yields finished flat on a YOY basis.

Additional Report Details

According to USDA, Jul ’18 U.S. milk production continued to decline seasonally but remained higher on a YOY basis for the 55^th consecutive month, finishing up 0.4% to a record seasonal high for the month of July.

U.S. milk production remained significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the final months of 2014, however production growth decelerated over the majority of 2015. The growth rate in U.S. milk production once again strengthened over the ’16-’17 production season prior to reaching a two year low growth rate during Apr ’18. The Jul ’18 YOY growth rate of 0.4% was the second smallest experienced throughout the past 30 months on a percentage basis.

YOY production gains on a percentage basis continue to be led by Colorado (+8.9%), followed by Kansas (+7.6%) and Texas (+7.3%). Production finished most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within Florida (-5.9%), Virginia (-5.0%) and Vermont (-3.0%). Overall, just ten of the 23 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY increases in production throughout the month.

California milk production volumes declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past seven months during Jul ’18, finishing down 2.5%. The YOY decline in California milk production volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past ten months on a percentage basis.

Just five of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY gains in production throughout Jul ’18, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states finished higher by a weighted average of 0.3% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for over 70% of the total U.S. milk production experienced throughout the month.

YOY production gains on an absolute basis were led by Texas, followed by Colorado and Wisconsin. Texas accounted for over 90% of the total YOY gain in U.S. milk production experienced throughout the month. Declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout California, followed by Florida and Michigan.

Overall, the Jul ’18 U.S. milk cow herd declined 8,000 head from the previous month, finishing at a nine month low. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.396 million head, which is 8,000 head below the previous year levels and 12,000 head below the 22 year highs experienced during the early months of 2018.

The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the 33^rd consecutive month, finishing 0.5% above the previous year. Yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon finished flat on a YOY basis while yields throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois, finishing up 0.7% YOY, increasing for the third consecutive month.

Growth in milk per cow productivity gains outweighed gains in herd expansion for the eighth consecutive month during Jul ’18. 100% of the increase in milk production was the result of higher productivity per cow during Jul ’18 as the milk cow herd declined on a YOY basis throughout the month.

MOM declines in the New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Indiana, New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Virginia and Florida milk cow herds more than offset an increase in the Texas milk cow herd experienced during Jul ’18.

Jul ’18 YOY declines in milk cow herds continue to be led by California (-12,000 head), followed by Minnesota (-6,000 head), Ohio (-5,000 head) and Pennsylvania (-5,000 head). Colorado (+15,000 head) and Texas (+15,000 head) experienced the largest YOY increases in their milk cow herds throughout the month.