U.S. Livestock Cold Storage Update – Aug ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jul ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to USDA, Jul ’18 U.S. frozen pork stocks declined seasonally to a seven month low while also finishing lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past eight months, declining by 1.2% to a four year seasonal low for the month of July. The June – July seasonal decline in pork stocks of 13.8 million pounds, or 2.5%, was smaller than the ten year average seasonal decline in stocks of 18.8 million pounds, or 3.6%, however. Jul ’18 pork stocks finished 8.0% below three year average figures for the month of July.
Beef – Stocks Finish at a July Record Seasonal High, up 12.3% YOY
Jul ’18 U.S. frozen beef stocks increased seasonally to a six month high while also remaining higher on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing up 12.3% to a record seasonal high for the month of July. Beef stocks had declined on a YOY basis over 14 consecutive months prior to increasing on a YOY basis over the past four months. The MOM build in beef stocks of 36.4 million pounds, or 8.1%, was significantly greater than the ten year average June – July seasonal build of 0.7 million pounds, or 0.2%. Jul ’18 beef stocks finished 6.9% above three year average figures for the month of July.
Chicken – Stocks Finish at a July Record Seasonal High, up 10.0% YOY
Jul ’18 U.S. frozen chicken stocks declined 1.2% MOM from the four month high experienced during the previous month but remained up 10.0% YOY, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of July. Chicken stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months through July. The Jul ’18 MOM decline in chicken stocks of 10.4 million pounds, or 1.2%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average June – July seasonal build in stocks of 11.3 million pounds, or 1.8%, however. Despite the contraseasonal decline in stock volumes, Jul ’18 chicken stocks finished 10.2% above three year average figures for the month of July, increasing vs. three year average figures for the 45th consecutive month.
Overall, Jul ’18 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished within four percent of the monthly record high experienced during Jan ’16. Individually, Jul ’18 pork stocks finished within 25% of historical maximum storage levels while beef and chicken stocks finished within 15% and five percent of historical maximum storage levels, respectively.
Jul ’18 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks reached a record seasonal high for the month of July. Pork stocks finished within 15% of historical seasonal highs while beef and chicken stocks each finished at record seasonal high storage levels for the month of July.
- Jul ’18 U.S. pork stocks declined seasonally to a seven month low while also finishing lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past eight months, declining by 1.2%.
- Jul ’18 U.S. beef and chicken stocks increased 12.3% and 10.0% on a YOY basis, respectively, each reaching record seasonal high levels for the month of July. Beef stocks increased significantly more than historical seasonal levels however chicken stocks declined contraseasonally throughout the month.
- Overall, Jul ’18 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks reached a record seasonal high for the month of July and finished within four percent of the overall monthly record high experienced during Jan ’16.
According to USDA, Jul ’18 U.S. frozen pork stocks declined seasonally to a seven month low while also finishing lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past eight months, declining by 1.2% to a four year seasonal low for the month of July. The June – July seasonal decline in pork stocks of 13.8 million pounds, or 2.5%, was smaller than the ten year average seasonal decline in stocks of 18.8 million pounds, or 3.6%, however. Jul ’18 pork stocks finished 8.0% below three year average figures for the month of July.
Beef – Stocks Finish at a July Record Seasonal High, up 12.3% YOY
Jul ’18 U.S. frozen beef stocks increased seasonally to a six month high while also remaining higher on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing up 12.3% to a record seasonal high for the month of July. Beef stocks had declined on a YOY basis over 14 consecutive months prior to increasing on a YOY basis over the past four months. The MOM build in beef stocks of 36.4 million pounds, or 8.1%, was significantly greater than the ten year average June – July seasonal build of 0.7 million pounds, or 0.2%. Jul ’18 beef stocks finished 6.9% above three year average figures for the month of July.
Chicken – Stocks Finish at a July Record Seasonal High, up 10.0% YOY
Jul ’18 U.S. frozen chicken stocks declined 1.2% MOM from the four month high experienced during the previous month but remained up 10.0% YOY, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of July. Chicken stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months through July. The Jul ’18 MOM decline in chicken stocks of 10.4 million pounds, or 1.2%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average June – July seasonal build in stocks of 11.3 million pounds, or 1.8%, however. Despite the contraseasonal decline in stock volumes, Jul ’18 chicken stocks finished 10.2% above three year average figures for the month of July, increasing vs. three year average figures for the 45th consecutive month.
Overall, Jul ’18 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished within four percent of the monthly record high experienced during Jan ’16. Individually, Jul ’18 pork stocks finished within 25% of historical maximum storage levels while beef and chicken stocks finished within 15% and five percent of historical maximum storage levels, respectively.
Jul ’18 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks reached a record seasonal high for the month of July. Pork stocks finished within 15% of historical seasonal highs while beef and chicken stocks each finished at record seasonal high storage levels for the month of July.