EU-28 Milk Production Update – Aug ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. milk production figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jul ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 62 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Feb ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining or finishing flat on a YOY basis over four of the past five months. 12-month rolling average production growth rates have declined over 22 of the past 23 months, reaching a nine year low during Jul ’19.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Colorado (+5.9%), followed by Texas (+5.8%). Production remained most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within Virginia (-11.2%), Illinois (-7.7%) and Pennsylvania (-7.6%). Overall, 13 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY gains in production throughout the month.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 12th consecutive month during Jul ’19, finishing up 2.5%. California accounted for 18% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.
Seven of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY gains in production throughout Jul ’19, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states finished higher by a weighted average of 0.7% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for just under three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Jul ’19. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states declined by 2.0% YOY throughout the month, however.
YOY increases in milk production on an absolute basis were led by California, followed by Texas and Idaho. YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Pennsylvania, followed by Ohio and Arizona.
Overall, the Jul ’19 U.S. milk cow herd declined 9,000 head from the previous month, reaching a three and a half year low level. In addition, the Jun ’19 milk cow herd figure was revised 4,000 head lower than previous stated. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.310 million head, finishing 82,000 head below the previous year and 128,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
The YOY decline in milk cow numbers offset continually increasing U.S. milk per cow yields experienced throughout Jul ’19. The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the 45th consecutive month throughout Jul ’19, finishing 0.9% above the previous year. Yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased 0.9% YOY while yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois also finished 0.9% higher on a YOY basis.
Jul ’19 MOM declines in milk cow herds experienced throughout Pennsylvania, Arizona, Indiana and Kansas more than offset MOM increases in the New Mexico and Colorado milk cow herds experienced throughout the month.
Jul ’19 YOY declines in milk cow herds continue to be led by Pennsylvania, followed by Ohio and Arizona. Texas, Colorado and Idaho experienced the largest YOY increases in their milk cow herds throughout the month.
- U.S. milk production finished flat on a YOY basis throughout Jul ’19 while 12-month rolling average production growth rates declined to a nine year low.
- The Jul ’19 U.S. milk cow herd declined 9,000 head from the previous month’s revised figure, reaching a three and a half year low level. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.310 million head, which is 82,000 head below the previous year and 128,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
- U.S. milk per cow yields increased YOY for the 45th consecutive month throughout Jul ’19, finishing 0.9% above the previous year.
U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 62 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Feb ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining or finishing flat on a YOY basis over four of the past five months. 12-month rolling average production growth rates have declined over 22 of the past 23 months, reaching a nine year low during Jul ’19.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Colorado (+5.9%), followed by Texas (+5.8%). Production remained most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within Virginia (-11.2%), Illinois (-7.7%) and Pennsylvania (-7.6%). Overall, 13 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY gains in production throughout the month.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 12th consecutive month during Jul ’19, finishing up 2.5%. California accounted for 18% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.
Seven of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY gains in production throughout Jul ’19, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states finished higher by a weighted average of 0.7% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for just under three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Jul ’19. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states declined by 2.0% YOY throughout the month, however.
YOY increases in milk production on an absolute basis were led by California, followed by Texas and Idaho. YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Pennsylvania, followed by Ohio and Arizona.
Overall, the Jul ’19 U.S. milk cow herd declined 9,000 head from the previous month, reaching a three and a half year low level. In addition, the Jun ’19 milk cow herd figure was revised 4,000 head lower than previous stated. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.310 million head, finishing 82,000 head below the previous year and 128,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
The YOY decline in milk cow numbers offset continually increasing U.S. milk per cow yields experienced throughout Jul ’19. The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the 45th consecutive month throughout Jul ’19, finishing 0.9% above the previous year. Yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased 0.9% YOY while yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois also finished 0.9% higher on a YOY basis.
Jul ’19 MOM declines in milk cow herds experienced throughout Pennsylvania, Arizona, Indiana and Kansas more than offset MOM increases in the New Mexico and Colorado milk cow herds experienced throughout the month.
Jul ’19 YOY declines in milk cow herds continue to be led by Pennsylvania, followed by Ohio and Arizona. Texas, Colorado and Idaho experienced the largest YOY increases in their milk cow herds throughout the month.