U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Aug ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jun ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for over half of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have declined on a YOY basis by 9.7% throughout the past 12 months, however. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to Australia and Columbia, while shipments destined to Mexico and Japan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. pork import volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the 14th consecutive month during Jun ’19, finishing down 11.8%. The decline in pork import volumes, coupled with the increase in pork export volumes, resulted in U.S. net pork trade finishing up 14.0% YOY during Jun ’19, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in net pork trade was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past 11 months on a percentage basis. ’17-’18 annual net pork trade increased 8.0% YOY, finishing at a record high level, while ’18-’19 YTD net pork trade has increased an additional 1.1% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Beef & Veal – Exports Remain Lower YOY, However Net Trade Finishes Positive
Jun ’19 U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined 0.4% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month. U.S. beef & veal export volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 30 consecutive months through the end of 2018, prior to declining on a YOY basis over the past six months. Jun ’19 U.S. beef & veal export volumes remained at the second highest seasonal figure on record, however, finishing 13.6% above three year average seasonal figures for the month of June. YOY declines in U.S. beef & veal export volumes were led by shipments destined to Japan, followed by shipments destined to Canada and Mexico, while export volumes destined to South Korea and China, Hong Kong & Taiwan finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Japan, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, South Korea, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for over 85% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to South Korea have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
Jun ’19 U.S. beef & veal import volumes declined on a YOY basis for just the second time in the past eight months, finishing down 8.1%. Beef & veal export volumes exceeded import volumes for the first time in the past six months during Jun ’19, resulting in U.S. beef & veal trade finishing at a positive level and a six year seasonal high. ’17-’18 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a positive level for the first time in the past five years however ’18-’19 YTD beef & veal net trade has declined 60.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Broilers – Exports Decline YOY for the Fourth Time in Five Months, Net Trade Finishes Down 2.4% YOY
Jun ’19 U.S. broiler export volumes declined 2.3% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months. YOY declines in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to Libya, while export volumes destined to Georgia increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to Mexico have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, followed by volumes destined to Vietnam, while shipments destined to Kazakhstan and China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. broiler import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months during Jun ’19, finishing up 4.9%. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, however, as Jun ’19 imports amounted to just 1.9% of export volumes. The YOY decline in broiler export volumes, coupled with the YOY increase in broiler import volumes, resulted in U.S. broiler net trade finishing down 2.4% YOY during Jun ’19, declining on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months. ’17-’18 annual net broiler trade finished up 3.9% YOY, reaching a six year high, while ’18-’19 YTD net pork trade remains up an additional 2.2% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
Combined Net Trade
Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers finished higher on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Jun ’19, increasing by 61.5 million pounds, or 6.7%. The YOY increase in combined net trade of pork, beef and broilers was the second largest experienced throughout the past nine months on a percentage basis.
- Jun ’19 U.S. net pork trade increased on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, finishing up 14.0% to a record high seasonal level, as export volumes increased and import volumes declined throughout the month. Pork export volumes increased 9.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, driven higher by growth in volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan. The YOY increase in pork export volumes was the first experienced throughout the past six months.
- Jun ’19 U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month, finishing down 0.4%, however net beef trade finished at a positive level for the first time in six months, reaching a six year seasonal high.
- U.S. net broiler trade declined 2.4% YOY during Jun ’19 as export volumes finished lower on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months.
Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for over half of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have declined on a YOY basis by 9.7% throughout the past 12 months, however. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to Australia and Columbia, while shipments destined to Mexico and Japan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. pork import volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the 14th consecutive month during Jun ’19, finishing down 11.8%. The decline in pork import volumes, coupled with the increase in pork export volumes, resulted in U.S. net pork trade finishing up 14.0% YOY during Jun ’19, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in net pork trade was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past 11 months on a percentage basis. ’17-’18 annual net pork trade increased 8.0% YOY, finishing at a record high level, while ’18-’19 YTD net pork trade has increased an additional 1.1% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Beef & Veal – Exports Remain Lower YOY, However Net Trade Finishes Positive
Jun ’19 U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined 0.4% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month. U.S. beef & veal export volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 30 consecutive months through the end of 2018, prior to declining on a YOY basis over the past six months. Jun ’19 U.S. beef & veal export volumes remained at the second highest seasonal figure on record, however, finishing 13.6% above three year average seasonal figures for the month of June. YOY declines in U.S. beef & veal export volumes were led by shipments destined to Japan, followed by shipments destined to Canada and Mexico, while export volumes destined to South Korea and China, Hong Kong & Taiwan finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Japan, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, South Korea, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for over 85% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to South Korea have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
Jun ’19 U.S. beef & veal import volumes declined on a YOY basis for just the second time in the past eight months, finishing down 8.1%. Beef & veal export volumes exceeded import volumes for the first time in the past six months during Jun ’19, resulting in U.S. beef & veal trade finishing at a positive level and a six year seasonal high. ’17-’18 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a positive level for the first time in the past five years however ’18-’19 YTD beef & veal net trade has declined 60.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Broilers – Exports Decline YOY for the Fourth Time in Five Months, Net Trade Finishes Down 2.4% YOY
Jun ’19 U.S. broiler export volumes declined 2.3% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months. YOY declines in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to Libya, while export volumes destined to Georgia increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to Mexico have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, followed by volumes destined to Vietnam, while shipments destined to Kazakhstan and China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. broiler import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months during Jun ’19, finishing up 4.9%. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, however, as Jun ’19 imports amounted to just 1.9% of export volumes. The YOY decline in broiler export volumes, coupled with the YOY increase in broiler import volumes, resulted in U.S. broiler net trade finishing down 2.4% YOY during Jun ’19, declining on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months. ’17-’18 annual net broiler trade finished up 3.9% YOY, reaching a six year high, while ’18-’19 YTD net pork trade remains up an additional 2.2% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
Combined Net Trade
Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers finished higher on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Jun ’19, increasing by 61.5 million pounds, or 6.7%. The YOY increase in combined net trade of pork, beef and broilers was the second largest experienced throughout the past nine months on a percentage basis.