U.S. Dairy Dry Product Stocks Update – Oct ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Aug ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
Aug ’19 month-end dry whey stocks increased to a four month high but remained down 1.8% on a YOY basis, reaching a three year seasonal low level. The MOM increase in dry whey stocks of 4.8 million pounds, or 7.1%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average July – August seasonal decline in dry whey stocks of 4.9 million pounds, or 8.3%. Dry whey production increased 7.2% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’19, contributing to the contraseasonal increase in stocks.
On a days of usage basis, Aug ’19 U.S. dry whey stocks finished higher YOY, however. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of August, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 10.4% YOY, increasing YOY for the fourth time in the past six months.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Remain Lower YOY for the Third Consecutive Month, Finish Down 3.8%
Aug ’19 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined 6.5% MOM to a ten month low while finishing 3.8% lower on a YOY basis, reaching a three year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in NFDM stocks was the third experienced in a row. The MOM decline in NFDM stocks of 18.9 million pounds, or 6.5%, was smaller than the ten year average July – August seasonal decline in NFDM stocks of 22.3 million pounds, or 10.8%.
On a days of usage basis, Aug ’19 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of August, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished down 0.4% YOY, also declining YOY for the third consecutive month.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Higher YOY for the First Time in Four Months, up 0.2%
Aug ’19 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past four months, finishing up 0.2%. Combined dairy product stocks remained 0.8% below the record high seasonal level experienced during August of 2017, however.
- Aug ’19 U.S. dry whey stocks increased contraseasonally but remained 1.8% lower on a YOY basis.
- Aug ’19 U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing down 3.8%.
Aug ’19 month-end dry whey stocks increased to a four month high but remained down 1.8% on a YOY basis, reaching a three year seasonal low level. The MOM increase in dry whey stocks of 4.8 million pounds, or 7.1%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average July – August seasonal decline in dry whey stocks of 4.9 million pounds, or 8.3%. Dry whey production increased 7.2% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’19, contributing to the contraseasonal increase in stocks.
On a days of usage basis, Aug ’19 U.S. dry whey stocks finished higher YOY, however. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of August, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 10.4% YOY, increasing YOY for the fourth time in the past six months.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Remain Lower YOY for the Third Consecutive Month, Finish Down 3.8%
Aug ’19 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined 6.5% MOM to a ten month low while finishing 3.8% lower on a YOY basis, reaching a three year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in NFDM stocks was the third experienced in a row. The MOM decline in NFDM stocks of 18.9 million pounds, or 6.5%, was smaller than the ten year average July – August seasonal decline in NFDM stocks of 22.3 million pounds, or 10.8%.
On a days of usage basis, Aug ’19 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of August, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished down 0.4% YOY, also declining YOY for the third consecutive month.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Higher YOY for the First Time in Four Months, up 0.2%
Aug ’19 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past four months, finishing up 0.2%. Combined dairy product stocks remained 0.8% below the record high seasonal level experienced during August of 2017, however.