U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Oct ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Aug ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 1.7% YOY throughout Aug ’19, finishing lower YOY for the first time in the past four months but remaining at the second highest seasonal level on record. Export demand declined 14.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.5% YOY increase in domestic demand.
’17-’18 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis finished 2.6% higher YOY, reaching a record high level, as domestic disappearance increased 0.1%, finishing at the second highest figure on record. ’18-’19 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has declined 0.6% YOY heading into the final month of the production season, however, despite domestic demand increasing 2.9%.
Butter – Disappearance Increases 1.0% YOY to a Four Year High Seasonal Level
Aug ’19 U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 1.0% YOY, reaching a four year seasonal high level. The YOY increase in butter disappearance was the first experienced throughout the past three months. Domestic butter demand increased 2.1% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 33.8% YOY decline in export demand.
’17-’18 annual butter disappearance finished 1.7% higher YOY, reaching a four year high, as domestic butter disappearance increased 1.0%, reaching the highest figure on record. ’18-’19 YTD butter commercial disappearance has increased an additional 1.7% YOY heading into the final month of the production season and is on pace to reach a record high annual level.
Aug ’19 U.S. butter domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining from the 13 month high level experienced throughout the previous month. Butter stocks typically decline seasonally throughout the second half of the calendar year prior to reaching seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December.
Cheese – Disappearance Declines YOY for the First Time in Seven Months, Finishes Down 2.7%
Aug ’19 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 2.7% YOY, finishing lower for the first time in the past seven months but remaining at the second highest seasonal level on record. American cheese disappearance declined 1.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese disappearance declined 3.1% YOY. Total domestic cheese demand declined 2.5% YOY throughout the month while export demand declined 5.6% YOY.
’17-’18 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.8% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.7%, also reaching the highest figure on record. ’18-’19 YTD cheese commercial disappearance has increased an additional 2.0% YOY heading into the final month of the production season, despite the most recent YOY decline.
Aug ’19 U.S. cheese production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures, resulting in stocks rebounding slightly from the seven month low level experienced throughout the previous month.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Declines to a Six Year Seasonal Low on Weak Exports, Down 3.6% YOY
Aug ’19 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 3.6% YOY, reaching a six year low seasonal level. Dry whey export demand declined 33.1% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 31.6% YOY increase in domestic demand.
’17-’18 annual dry whey disappearance increased 8.7% YOY, finishing at a ten year high, as domestic demand finished up 6.4%. ’18-’19 YTD dry whey commercial disappearance has declined 11.3% YOY heading into the final month of the production season, however, and is on pace to reach a four year low level.
Aug ’19 U.S. dry whey production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures, resulting in stocks rebounding to a four month high level.
WPC – Disappearance Declines YOY for the Seventh Consecutive Month, Finishes Down 2.0%
Aug ’19 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 2.0% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month. WPC export demand declined 22.3% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 30.3% YOY increase in domestic demand.
’17-’18 annual WPC disappearance increased 9.6% YOY, reaching a record high level, despite domestic demand declining to a six year seasonal low, finishing down 2.4% YOY. ’18-’19 YTD WPC commercial disappearance has declined 4.7% YOY heading into the final month of the production season, however.
Aug ’19 U.S. WPC domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining slightly from the previous month.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Declines on Weak Export Demand, Down 5.4% YOY
Aug ’19 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 5.4% YOY, finishing lower for the first time in the past three months but remaining at the second highest seasonal level on record. NFDM/SMP export demand declined 18.2% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 17.7% YOY increase in domestic demand.
’17-’18 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance increased 7.7% YOY to a record annual high, despite domestic demand declining 5.8% YOY, reaching an 11 year low. ’18-’19 YTD NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance has declined 5.1% YOY heading into the final month of the production season, however.
Aug ’19 U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining to a ten month low level.
On an absolute basis, Aug ’19 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP and dry whey while declining most significantly for cheese. International commercial disappearance declined on a YOY basis across all products, led by declines experienced for NFDM/SMP and dry whey.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Reach a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 1.9% YOY
Aug ’19 U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 15th time in the past 16 months, finishing down 1.9% to a record low seasonal level. Sales of whole milk remained higher on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months, finishing up 0.9%, however fat-free milk sales remained weak, declining by 9.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
’17-’18 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the ninth consecutive year, finishing down 2.3%, as whole milk sales increased to a nine year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’18-’19 YTD total fluid milk sales have declined an additional 1.6% heading into the final month of the production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk decline on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months during Aug ’19, finishing down 0.8%. ’17-’18 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.7% YOY to a three year low while ’18-’19 YTD figures have declined an additional 0.3% YOY heading into the final month of the production season.
- Aug ’19 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products declined 1.8% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 1.7% YOY on a skim-solids basis. Domestic demand declined 1.2% YOY on a milk-fat basis throughout the month but increased 1.5% YOY on a skim-solids basis.
- Aug ’19 U.S. cheese and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder commercial disappearance declined 1.7% and 5.4%, respectively, but each remained at the second highest seasonal levels on record. Dry whey and whey protein concentrate commercial disappearance declined 3.6% and 2.0% YOY, respectively, on weak export demand, however butter commercial disappearance increased 1.0% YOY, reaching a four year seasonal high level.
- Aug ’19 U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 15th time in the past 16 months, finishing down 1.9% to a record low seasonal level.
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 1.7% YOY throughout Aug ’19, finishing lower YOY for the first time in the past four months but remaining at the second highest seasonal level on record. Export demand declined 14.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.5% YOY increase in domestic demand.
’17-’18 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis finished 2.6% higher YOY, reaching a record high level, as domestic disappearance increased 0.1%, finishing at the second highest figure on record. ’18-’19 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has declined 0.6% YOY heading into the final month of the production season, however, despite domestic demand increasing 2.9%.
Butter – Disappearance Increases 1.0% YOY to a Four Year High Seasonal Level
Aug ’19 U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 1.0% YOY, reaching a four year seasonal high level. The YOY increase in butter disappearance was the first experienced throughout the past three months. Domestic butter demand increased 2.1% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 33.8% YOY decline in export demand.
’17-’18 annual butter disappearance finished 1.7% higher YOY, reaching a four year high, as domestic butter disappearance increased 1.0%, reaching the highest figure on record. ’18-’19 YTD butter commercial disappearance has increased an additional 1.7% YOY heading into the final month of the production season and is on pace to reach a record high annual level.
Aug ’19 U.S. butter domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining from the 13 month high level experienced throughout the previous month. Butter stocks typically decline seasonally throughout the second half of the calendar year prior to reaching seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December.
Cheese – Disappearance Declines YOY for the First Time in Seven Months, Finishes Down 2.7%
Aug ’19 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 2.7% YOY, finishing lower for the first time in the past seven months but remaining at the second highest seasonal level on record. American cheese disappearance declined 1.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese disappearance declined 3.1% YOY. Total domestic cheese demand declined 2.5% YOY throughout the month while export demand declined 5.6% YOY.
’17-’18 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.8% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.7%, also reaching the highest figure on record. ’18-’19 YTD cheese commercial disappearance has increased an additional 2.0% YOY heading into the final month of the production season, despite the most recent YOY decline.
Aug ’19 U.S. cheese production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures, resulting in stocks rebounding slightly from the seven month low level experienced throughout the previous month.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Declines to a Six Year Seasonal Low on Weak Exports, Down 3.6% YOY
Aug ’19 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 3.6% YOY, reaching a six year low seasonal level. Dry whey export demand declined 33.1% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 31.6% YOY increase in domestic demand.
’17-’18 annual dry whey disappearance increased 8.7% YOY, finishing at a ten year high, as domestic demand finished up 6.4%. ’18-’19 YTD dry whey commercial disappearance has declined 11.3% YOY heading into the final month of the production season, however, and is on pace to reach a four year low level.
Aug ’19 U.S. dry whey production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures, resulting in stocks rebounding to a four month high level.
WPC – Disappearance Declines YOY for the Seventh Consecutive Month, Finishes Down 2.0%
Aug ’19 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 2.0% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month. WPC export demand declined 22.3% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 30.3% YOY increase in domestic demand.
’17-’18 annual WPC disappearance increased 9.6% YOY, reaching a record high level, despite domestic demand declining to a six year seasonal low, finishing down 2.4% YOY. ’18-’19 YTD WPC commercial disappearance has declined 4.7% YOY heading into the final month of the production season, however.
Aug ’19 U.S. WPC domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining slightly from the previous month.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Declines on Weak Export Demand, Down 5.4% YOY
Aug ’19 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 5.4% YOY, finishing lower for the first time in the past three months but remaining at the second highest seasonal level on record. NFDM/SMP export demand declined 18.2% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 17.7% YOY increase in domestic demand.
’17-’18 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance increased 7.7% YOY to a record annual high, despite domestic demand declining 5.8% YOY, reaching an 11 year low. ’18-’19 YTD NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance has declined 5.1% YOY heading into the final month of the production season, however.
Aug ’19 U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining to a ten month low level.
On an absolute basis, Aug ’19 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP and dry whey while declining most significantly for cheese. International commercial disappearance declined on a YOY basis across all products, led by declines experienced for NFDM/SMP and dry whey.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Reach a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 1.9% YOY
Aug ’19 U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 15th time in the past 16 months, finishing down 1.9% to a record low seasonal level. Sales of whole milk remained higher on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months, finishing up 0.9%, however fat-free milk sales remained weak, declining by 9.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
’17-’18 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the ninth consecutive year, finishing down 2.3%, as whole milk sales increased to a nine year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’18-’19 YTD total fluid milk sales have declined an additional 1.6% heading into the final month of the production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk decline on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months during Aug ’19, finishing down 0.8%. ’17-’18 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.7% YOY to a three year low while ’18-’19 YTD figures have declined an additional 0.3% YOY heading into the final month of the production season.