U.S. Milk Production Update – Oct ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. milk production figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 62 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Feb ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.1% from Mar ’19 – Aug ’19. Milk production volumes rebounded throughout Sep ’19, however, increasing at a 12 month high YOY growth rate.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Texas (+9.3%), followed by Colorado (+5.6%) and South Dakota (+5.4%). Production finished most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within Virginia (-7.3%), Arizona (-4.9%) and Utah (-4.2%). Overall, 17 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced flat or increasing production on a YOY basis throughout the month.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 14th consecutive month during Sep ’19, finishing up 1.6%. California accounted for 18.6% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.
Nine of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY gains in production throughout Sep ’19, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states finished higher by a weighted average of 2.0% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Sep ’19. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states declined by 0.9% YOY throughout the month, however.
YOY increases in milk production on an absolute basis were led by Texas, followed by California and Idaho, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Pennsylvania, followed by Arizona.
Overall, the Sep ’19 U.S. milk cow herd declined 2,000 head from the previous month’s revised figure, reaching a three and a half year low level. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.315 million head, which is 53,000 head below the previous year and 123,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
The YOY decline in milk cow numbers was offset by continually increasing U.S. milk per cow yields experienced throughout Sep ’19. The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the 47th consecutive month throughout Sep ’19, finishing 1.8% above the previous year. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the largest experienced throughout the past eight months on a percentage basis. Yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased 1.0% YOY while yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished 1.7% higher on a YOY basis.
Sep ’19 MOM declines in milk cow herds were experienced throughout California, Minnesota, Vermont, Georgia and Virginia, while milk cow herds increased from the previous month throughout Texas, New Mexico, South Dakota, Michigan, Ohio, Colorado and Oregon. USDA figures imply a 9,000 head MOM decline in milk cow herds experienced outside of the top 24 milk producing states during Sep ’19.
Sep ’19 YOY declines in milk cow herds continue to be led by Pennsylvania, followed by Arizona and Virginia. Texas, Idaho and Colorado experienced the largest YOY increases in their milk cow herds throughout the month.
- U.S. milk production increased 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’19, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in milk production was the largest experienced throughout the past 12 months on a percentage basis.
- The Sep ’19 U.S. milk cow herd declined 2,000 head from the previous month’s revised figure, reaching a three and a half year low level. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.315 million head, which is 53,000 head below the previous year and 123,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
- U.S. milk per cow yields increased YOY for the 47th consecutive month throughout Sep ’19, finishing 1.8% above the previous year.
U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 62 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Feb ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.1% from Mar ’19 – Aug ’19. Milk production volumes rebounded throughout Sep ’19, however, increasing at a 12 month high YOY growth rate.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Texas (+9.3%), followed by Colorado (+5.6%) and South Dakota (+5.4%). Production finished most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within Virginia (-7.3%), Arizona (-4.9%) and Utah (-4.2%). Overall, 17 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced flat or increasing production on a YOY basis throughout the month.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 14th consecutive month during Sep ’19, finishing up 1.6%. California accounted for 18.6% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.
Nine of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY gains in production throughout Sep ’19, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states finished higher by a weighted average of 2.0% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Sep ’19. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states declined by 0.9% YOY throughout the month, however.
YOY increases in milk production on an absolute basis were led by Texas, followed by California and Idaho, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Pennsylvania, followed by Arizona.
Overall, the Sep ’19 U.S. milk cow herd declined 2,000 head from the previous month’s revised figure, reaching a three and a half year low level. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.315 million head, which is 53,000 head below the previous year and 123,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
The YOY decline in milk cow numbers was offset by continually increasing U.S. milk per cow yields experienced throughout Sep ’19. The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the 47th consecutive month throughout Sep ’19, finishing 1.8% above the previous year. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the largest experienced throughout the past eight months on a percentage basis. Yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased 1.0% YOY while yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished 1.7% higher on a YOY basis.
Sep ’19 MOM declines in milk cow herds were experienced throughout California, Minnesota, Vermont, Georgia and Virginia, while milk cow herds increased from the previous month throughout Texas, New Mexico, South Dakota, Michigan, Ohio, Colorado and Oregon. USDA figures imply a 9,000 head MOM decline in milk cow herds experienced outside of the top 24 milk producing states during Sep ’19.
Sep ’19 YOY declines in milk cow herds continue to be led by Pennsylvania, followed by Arizona and Virginia. Texas, Idaho and Colorado experienced the largest YOY increases in their milk cow herds throughout the month.