U.S. Dairy Dry Product Stocks Update – Nov ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
Sep ’19 month-end dry whey stocks increased 9.8% MOM to a six month high while finishing 14.0% higher on a YOY basis, reaching the second highest seasonal level on record. The YOY increase in dry whey stocks was the first experienced throughout the past five months and the largest experienced throughout the past 19 months on a percentage basis. The MOM increase in dry whey stocks of 7.1 million pounds, or 9.8%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average August – September seasonal decline in dry whey stocks of 2.5 million pounds, or 4.1%. The contraseasonal increase in dry whey stocks was the second experienced in a row. Dry whey production increased 31.5% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’19, contributing to the contraseasonal increase in stocks.
On a days of usage basis, Sep ’19 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of September, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 27.5% YOY, increasing on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Remain Lower YOY for the Fourth Consecutive Month, Finish Down 2.9%
Sep ’19 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined 5.8% MOM to an 11 month low while finishing 2.9% lower on a YOY basis, reaching a three year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in NFDM stocks was the fourth experienced in a row. The MOM decline in NFDM stocks of 15.7 million pounds, or 5.8%, was smaller than the ten year average August – September seasonal decline in NFDM stocks of 21.3 million pounds, or 9.9%.
On a days of usage basis, Sep ’19 U.S. NFDM stocks finished higher YOY, however. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of September, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 2.0% YOY, increasing on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Reach a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 0.6% YOY
Sep ’19 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM increased on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, finishing up 0.6%. Combined dairy product stocks reached a record high seasonal level, finishing 4.4% above three year average seasonal figures. The YOY increase in combined dairy product stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past five months on a percentage basis.
- Sep ’19 U.S. dry whey stocks increased contraseasonally for the second consecutive month, finishing 14.0% higher on a YOY basis.
- Sep ’19 U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing down 2.9%.
Sep ’19 month-end dry whey stocks increased 9.8% MOM to a six month high while finishing 14.0% higher on a YOY basis, reaching the second highest seasonal level on record. The YOY increase in dry whey stocks was the first experienced throughout the past five months and the largest experienced throughout the past 19 months on a percentage basis. The MOM increase in dry whey stocks of 7.1 million pounds, or 9.8%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average August – September seasonal decline in dry whey stocks of 2.5 million pounds, or 4.1%. The contraseasonal increase in dry whey stocks was the second experienced in a row. Dry whey production increased 31.5% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’19, contributing to the contraseasonal increase in stocks.
On a days of usage basis, Sep ’19 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of September, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 27.5% YOY, increasing on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Remain Lower YOY for the Fourth Consecutive Month, Finish Down 2.9%
Sep ’19 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined 5.8% MOM to an 11 month low while finishing 2.9% lower on a YOY basis, reaching a three year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in NFDM stocks was the fourth experienced in a row. The MOM decline in NFDM stocks of 15.7 million pounds, or 5.8%, was smaller than the ten year average August – September seasonal decline in NFDM stocks of 21.3 million pounds, or 9.9%.
On a days of usage basis, Sep ’19 U.S. NFDM stocks finished higher YOY, however. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of September, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 2.0% YOY, increasing on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Reach a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 0.6% YOY
Sep ’19 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM increased on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, finishing up 0.6%. Combined dairy product stocks reached a record high seasonal level, finishing 4.4% above three year average seasonal figures. The YOY increase in combined dairy product stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past five months on a percentage basis.