U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Nov ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for over half of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have declined on a YOY basis by 9.8% throughout the past 12 months, however. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, followed by Australia, while shipments destined to Mexico and Japan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. pork import volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the 17th consecutive month during Sep ’19, finishing down 3.8%. The decline in pork import volumes, coupled with the increase in pork export volumes, resulted in U.S. net pork trade finishing up 10.0% YOY during Sep ’19, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in net pork trade was the fifth experienced in a row but the smallest experienced throughout the past four months on a percentage basis. ’18-’19 annual net pork trade increased 5.6% YOY, finishing at a record high level for the second consecutive year.
Beef & Veal – Exports Remain Lower YOY However Net Trade Finishes Positive
Sep ’19 U.S. beef & veal export volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month, finishing down 2.7% YOY. U.S. beef & veal export volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 30 consecutive months through the end of 2018, prior to declining on a YOY basis over the past nine months. YOY declines in U.S. beef & veal export volumes were led by shipments destined to Japan, followed by shipments destined to Mexico, while export volumes destined to South Korea finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for 90% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to South Korea have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
Sep ’19 U.S. beef & veal import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing down 0.5%. Beef & veal export volumes exceeded import volumes during Sep ’19, resulting in U.S. beef & veal trade finishing at a positive level for the third time in the past four months. ’18-’19 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a positive level for the second consecutive year however beef & veal net trade remained 54.2% below previous year levels.
Broilers – Net Trade Declines YOY for the Second Time in Three Months, Finishes Down 2.7%
Sep ’19 U.S. broiler export volumes declined 0.4% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past eight months. YOY declines in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to Angola, while export volumes destined to Cuba and Georgia increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to Georgia have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, followed by volumes destined to Mexico, while shipments destined to Angola have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. broiler import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months during Sep ’19, finishing up 5.7%. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, however, as Sep ’19 imports amounted to just 2.2% of export volumes. The YOY decline in broiler export volumes, coupled with the YOY increase in broiler import volumes, resulted in U.S. broiler net trade finishing down 0.5% YOY during Sep ’19. The YOY decline in broiler net trade was the third experienced throughout the past four months. ’18-’19 annual net broiler trade finished up 1.7% YOY, reaching a five year high, despite the recent declines.
Combined Net Trade
Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers finished higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during Sep ’19, increasing by 26.8 million pounds, or 2.8%, as the increase in pork net trade more than offset the declines in beef and broiler net trade. The YOY increase in combined net trade of pork, beef and broilers was the smallest experienced throughout the past five months on both an absolute and percentage basis, however.
- Sep ’19 U.S. net pork trade increased on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month, finishing up 10.0% to a record high seasonal level. Pork export volumes increased 7.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month, driven higher by growth in volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan.
- Sep ’19 U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month, finishing down 2.7%. Net beef & veal trade remained at a positive level for the third time in the past four months, however.
- U.S. net broiler trade declined 0.5% YOY during Sep ’19 as export volumes declined on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past eight months.
Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for over half of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have declined on a YOY basis by 9.8% throughout the past 12 months, however. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, followed by Australia, while shipments destined to Mexico and Japan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. pork import volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the 17th consecutive month during Sep ’19, finishing down 3.8%. The decline in pork import volumes, coupled with the increase in pork export volumes, resulted in U.S. net pork trade finishing up 10.0% YOY during Sep ’19, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in net pork trade was the fifth experienced in a row but the smallest experienced throughout the past four months on a percentage basis. ’18-’19 annual net pork trade increased 5.6% YOY, finishing at a record high level for the second consecutive year.
Beef & Veal – Exports Remain Lower YOY However Net Trade Finishes Positive
Sep ’19 U.S. beef & veal export volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month, finishing down 2.7% YOY. U.S. beef & veal export volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 30 consecutive months through the end of 2018, prior to declining on a YOY basis over the past nine months. YOY declines in U.S. beef & veal export volumes were led by shipments destined to Japan, followed by shipments destined to Mexico, while export volumes destined to South Korea finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for 90% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to South Korea have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
Sep ’19 U.S. beef & veal import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing down 0.5%. Beef & veal export volumes exceeded import volumes during Sep ’19, resulting in U.S. beef & veal trade finishing at a positive level for the third time in the past four months. ’18-’19 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a positive level for the second consecutive year however beef & veal net trade remained 54.2% below previous year levels.
Broilers – Net Trade Declines YOY for the Second Time in Three Months, Finishes Down 2.7%
Sep ’19 U.S. broiler export volumes declined 0.4% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past eight months. YOY declines in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to Angola, while export volumes destined to Cuba and Georgia increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to Georgia have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, followed by volumes destined to Mexico, while shipments destined to Angola have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. broiler import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months during Sep ’19, finishing up 5.7%. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, however, as Sep ’19 imports amounted to just 2.2% of export volumes. The YOY decline in broiler export volumes, coupled with the YOY increase in broiler import volumes, resulted in U.S. broiler net trade finishing down 0.5% YOY during Sep ’19. The YOY decline in broiler net trade was the third experienced throughout the past four months. ’18-’19 annual net broiler trade finished up 1.7% YOY, reaching a five year high, despite the recent declines.
Combined Net Trade
Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers finished higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during Sep ’19, increasing by 26.8 million pounds, or 2.8%, as the increase in pork net trade more than offset the declines in beef and broiler net trade. The YOY increase in combined net trade of pork, beef and broilers was the smallest experienced throughout the past five months on both an absolute and percentage basis, however.