U.S. Livestock Cold Storage Update – Nov ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to USDA, Oct ’19 U.S. frozen pork stocks increased contraseasonally to a four month high while finishing 7.6% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. Pork stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over six consecutive months through October. The MOM build in pork stocks of 15.8 million pounds, or 2.6%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average September – October seasonal decline in stocks of 14.0 million pounds, or 1.9%. The September – October increase in pork stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past nine years. Pork stocks declined contraseasonally throughout the months of August and September, prior to increasing contraseasonally throughout October.
Beef – Stocks Continue to Decline Contraseasonally, Finish at a Five Year Low Seasonal Level
Oct ’19 U.S. frozen beef stocks declined to a three month low level, finishing down 9.6% on a YOY basis and reaching a five year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in beef stocks was the eighth experienced in a row. The MOM decline in beef stocks of 2.8 million pounds, or 0.6%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average September – October seasonal build in stocks of 5.3 million pounds, or 1.1%. The September – October decline in beef stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past six years. Beef stocks have declined contraseasonally throughout each of the past two months through October.
Chicken – Stocks Reach a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 1.4% YOY
Oct ’19 U.S. frozen chicken stocks increased 4.3% MOM to a 13 month high level, finishing 1.4% higher on a YOY basis and reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in chicken stocks was just the second experienced throughout the past 11 months. The MOM increase in chicken stocks of 38.9 million pounds, or 4.3%, was larger than the ten year average September – October seasonal build in stocks of 23.6 million pounds, or 3.3%.
Overall, Oct ’19 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 1.0% below the Sep ’18 record high level. Individually, Oct ’19 chicken stocks finished within one percent of the highest monthly storage level on record while pork and beef stocks finished within 13% and 18% of historical maximum storage levels, respectively.
Oct ’19 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks reached a record high seasonal level for the month of October. Individually, Oct ’19 pork and chicken stocks each finished at record high seasonal levels while beef stocks finished 13% below record high historical seasonal levels.
Oct ’19 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 0.4% higher on a YOY basis. The Oct ’19 YOY increase in combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks was the first experienced throughout the past ten months.
- Oct ’19 U.S. pork stocks increased contraseasonally while finishing 7.6% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level.
- Oct ’19 U.S. beef stocks declined contraseasonally to a five year low seasonal level, finishing down 9.6% on a YOY basis.
- Oct ’19 U.S. chicken stocks reached a record high seasonal level, finishing 1.4% higher YOY.
According to USDA, Oct ’19 U.S. frozen pork stocks increased contraseasonally to a four month high while finishing 7.6% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. Pork stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over six consecutive months through October. The MOM build in pork stocks of 15.8 million pounds, or 2.6%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average September – October seasonal decline in stocks of 14.0 million pounds, or 1.9%. The September – October increase in pork stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past nine years. Pork stocks declined contraseasonally throughout the months of August and September, prior to increasing contraseasonally throughout October.
Beef – Stocks Continue to Decline Contraseasonally, Finish at a Five Year Low Seasonal Level
Oct ’19 U.S. frozen beef stocks declined to a three month low level, finishing down 9.6% on a YOY basis and reaching a five year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in beef stocks was the eighth experienced in a row. The MOM decline in beef stocks of 2.8 million pounds, or 0.6%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average September – October seasonal build in stocks of 5.3 million pounds, or 1.1%. The September – October decline in beef stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past six years. Beef stocks have declined contraseasonally throughout each of the past two months through October.
Chicken – Stocks Reach a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 1.4% YOY
Oct ’19 U.S. frozen chicken stocks increased 4.3% MOM to a 13 month high level, finishing 1.4% higher on a YOY basis and reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in chicken stocks was just the second experienced throughout the past 11 months. The MOM increase in chicken stocks of 38.9 million pounds, or 4.3%, was larger than the ten year average September – October seasonal build in stocks of 23.6 million pounds, or 3.3%.
Overall, Oct ’19 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 1.0% below the Sep ’18 record high level. Individually, Oct ’19 chicken stocks finished within one percent of the highest monthly storage level on record while pork and beef stocks finished within 13% and 18% of historical maximum storage levels, respectively.
Oct ’19 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks reached a record high seasonal level for the month of October. Individually, Oct ’19 pork and chicken stocks each finished at record high seasonal levels while beef stocks finished 13% below record high historical seasonal levels.
Oct ’19 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 0.4% higher on a YOY basis. The Oct ’19 YOY increase in combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks was the first experienced throughout the past ten months.