Executive Summary U.S. dairy cow slaughter figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Nov ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates declined contraseasonally while finishing lower on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months, down 2.3%. Dairy cow slaughter rates had finished higher on a YOY basis over 30 consecutive months prior to declining over three of the past four months through Nov ’19.
• Nov ’19 MOM declines in dairy cow slaughter were led by Standard Federal Region 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin).
• Nov ’19 YOY declines in dairy cow slaughter were also led by Standard Federal Region 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin).

Additional Report Details According to USDA, Nov ’19 U.S. dairy cow slaughter declined slightly contraseasonally while finishing 2.3% lower on a YOY basis when normalizing for slaughter days. Despite declining on a YOY basis, dairy cow slaughter rates remained at the third highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past 22 years, finishing 4.0% above three year average seasonal figures. The MOM decline in slaughter rates of 0.5% was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average October – November seasonal build of 2.2%. ’18-’19 annual dairy cow slaughter rates increased 4.4% on a YOY basis, reaching a 33 year high level. The Nov ’19 YOY decline in U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates was the third experienced throughout the past four months. Dairy cow slaughter rates had finished higher on a YOY basis over 30 consecutive months prior to the recently experienced declines. U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates have declined by a total of 1.2% on a YOY basis over the past four months. Recent declines in slaughter rates have contributed to the U.S. milk cow herd rebounding from the three and a half year low level experienced during Aug ’19. The U.S. milk cow herd has increased by a total of 14,000 head throughout the past three months, rebounding to a six month high level, overall. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.331 million head, which remains 27,000 head below previous year figures and 107,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18, however. The most significant Nov ’19 MOM decline in dairy cow slaughter was experienced within Standard Federal Region 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin), while dairy cow slaughter rates increased most significantly on a MOM basis throughout Standard Federal Region 3 (Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia). YOY declines in Nov ’19 dairy cow slaughter rates were also led by Standard Federal Region 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin), while dairy cow slaughter rates increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout Standard Federal Region 3 (Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia).