U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Jan ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Nov ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, finishing up 1.2%. Export demand increased 17.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 2.4% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.5% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.6%, reaching the highest annual figure on record.
Butter – Disappearance Declines YOY for the First Time in Three Months, Finishes Down 8.5%
Nov ’19 U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 8.5% YOY, finishing lower for the first time in the past three months. Butter commercial disappearance remained at the second highest seasonal level on record but finished 2.8% below three year average seasonal figures. Domestic butter demand declined 8.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 11.3% lower.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 2.1% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 3.1%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record.
Nov ’19 U.S. butter domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining for the fourth consecutive month and reaching an 11 month low level, overall. Butter stocks typically decline seasonally throughout the second half of the calendar year, reaching seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December.
Cheese – Disappearance Declines 0.3% YOY on Lower American Cheese Demand
Nov ’19 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 0.3% YOY, finishing lower for the first time in the past three months. Cheese commercial disappearance remained at the second highest seasonal level on record, however, finishing 2.2% above three year average seasonal figures. American cheese disappearance declined 1.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.6% YOY increase in other-than-American cheese disappearance. Total domestic cheese demand declined 0.8% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 7.4% YOY decline in export demand.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.2% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.2%, also reaching the highest figure on record.
Nov ’19 U.S. cheese domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining to a 21 month low level.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Declines 4.5% YOY on Continued Weak Export Demand
Nov ’19 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 4.5% YOY, finishing lower for the first time in the past three months. Dry whey export demand declined 24.1% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting an 11.9% YOY increase in domestic demand. Domestic dry whey demand has finished higher on a YOY basis over seven consecutive months through Nov ’19 however the Nov ’19 YOY decline in dry whey export demand was the 15th experienced in a row.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.9% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. Domestic disappearance increased 8.6% YOY, however, reaching a three year high level.
Nov ’19 U.S. dry whey production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures, resulting in stocks rebounding slightly from the previous month.
WPC – Disappearance Increases YOY for the First Time in the Past Ten Months, Finishes up 0.5%
Nov ’19 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 0.5% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past ten months. WPC export demand increased 18.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 16.3% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.9% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance increased 33.2% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level.
Nov ’19 U.S. WPC production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures, resulting in stocks increasing to an 18 month high level.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Finishes Higher YOY for the Third Consecutive Month, up 28.3%
Nov ’19 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 28.3% YOY, finishing higher for the third consecutive month. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was the largest experienced throughout the past 15 months on a percentage basis. NFDM/SMP export demand increased 40.4% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting an 8.7% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 4.2% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite finishing 5.1% higher on a YOY basis throughout the final third of the production season. Domestic disappearance increased 5.8%, rebounding from the 11 year low experienced throughout the previous production season.
Nov ’19 U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures, resulting in stocks rebounding slightly from the 35 month low level experienced throughout the previous month.
On an absolute basis, Nov ’19 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for dry whey while declining most significantly for butter, followed by cheese. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP while dry whey export demand finished most significantly lower YOY.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Reach a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 2.1% YOY
Oct ’19 U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 17th time in the past 18 months, finishing down 2.1% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of whole milk remained higher on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing up 0.5%, however fat-free milk sales remained weak, declining by 11.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
’18-’19 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 1.5%, as whole milk sales increased to an 11 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Oct ’19, finishing down 1.1%. ’18-’19 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level.
- Nov ’19 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products declined 2.6% YOY on a milk-fat basis but finished 1.2% higher YOY on a skim-solids basis. Domestic demand declined 2.0% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 2.4% YOY on a skim-solids basis throughout the month.
- U.S. butter, cheese and dry whey disappearance each declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months throughout Nov ’19. Domestic butter and cheese disappearance declined YOY throughout the month while dry whey export demand remained lower. Nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder disappearance remained higher on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, however, increasing by a 15 month high YOY growth rate of 28.3%. Nov ’19 whey protein concentrate finished higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past ten months, finishing up 0.5%.
- Oct ’19 U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 17th time in the past 18 months, finishing down 2.1% and reaching a record low seasonal level.
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, finishing up 1.2%. Export demand increased 17.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 2.4% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.5% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.6%, reaching the highest annual figure on record.
Butter – Disappearance Declines YOY for the First Time in Three Months, Finishes Down 8.5%
Nov ’19 U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 8.5% YOY, finishing lower for the first time in the past three months. Butter commercial disappearance remained at the second highest seasonal level on record but finished 2.8% below three year average seasonal figures. Domestic butter demand declined 8.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 11.3% lower.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 2.1% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 3.1%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record.
Nov ’19 U.S. butter domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining for the fourth consecutive month and reaching an 11 month low level, overall. Butter stocks typically decline seasonally throughout the second half of the calendar year, reaching seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December.
Cheese – Disappearance Declines 0.3% YOY on Lower American Cheese Demand
Nov ’19 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 0.3% YOY, finishing lower for the first time in the past three months. Cheese commercial disappearance remained at the second highest seasonal level on record, however, finishing 2.2% above three year average seasonal figures. American cheese disappearance declined 1.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.6% YOY increase in other-than-American cheese disappearance. Total domestic cheese demand declined 0.8% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 7.4% YOY decline in export demand.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.2% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.2%, also reaching the highest figure on record.
Nov ’19 U.S. cheese domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining to a 21 month low level.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Declines 4.5% YOY on Continued Weak Export Demand
Nov ’19 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 4.5% YOY, finishing lower for the first time in the past three months. Dry whey export demand declined 24.1% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting an 11.9% YOY increase in domestic demand. Domestic dry whey demand has finished higher on a YOY basis over seven consecutive months through Nov ’19 however the Nov ’19 YOY decline in dry whey export demand was the 15th experienced in a row.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.9% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. Domestic disappearance increased 8.6% YOY, however, reaching a three year high level.
Nov ’19 U.S. dry whey production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures, resulting in stocks rebounding slightly from the previous month.
WPC – Disappearance Increases YOY for the First Time in the Past Ten Months, Finishes up 0.5%
Nov ’19 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 0.5% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past ten months. WPC export demand increased 18.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 16.3% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.9% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance increased 33.2% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level.
Nov ’19 U.S. WPC production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures, resulting in stocks increasing to an 18 month high level.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Finishes Higher YOY for the Third Consecutive Month, up 28.3%
Nov ’19 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 28.3% YOY, finishing higher for the third consecutive month. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was the largest experienced throughout the past 15 months on a percentage basis. NFDM/SMP export demand increased 40.4% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting an 8.7% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 4.2% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite finishing 5.1% higher on a YOY basis throughout the final third of the production season. Domestic disappearance increased 5.8%, rebounding from the 11 year low experienced throughout the previous production season.
Nov ’19 U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures, resulting in stocks rebounding slightly from the 35 month low level experienced throughout the previous month.
On an absolute basis, Nov ’19 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for dry whey while declining most significantly for butter, followed by cheese. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP while dry whey export demand finished most significantly lower YOY.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Reach a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 2.1% YOY
Oct ’19 U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 17th time in the past 18 months, finishing down 2.1% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of whole milk remained higher on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing up 0.5%, however fat-free milk sales remained weak, declining by 11.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
’18-’19 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 1.5%, as whole milk sales increased to an 11 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Oct ’19, finishing down 1.1%. ’18-’19 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level.