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U.S. Cattle & Hogs Production Update – Jan ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. livestock slaughter figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Dec ‘19. Highlights from the updated report include:
Total 12-month rolling average red meat production finished above trendline for the 28th consecutive month throughout Dec ’19. The Dec ’19 deviation from trendline increased to an 11 year high level.
Pork – Production Remains at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 7.1% YOY
Dec ’19 U.S. pork production declined 1.6% MOM but remained 7.1% higher YOY when normalizing for slaughter days, finishing at a record high seasonal level for the fourth consecutive month. The YOY increase in pork production was the 11th experienced throughout the past 12 months. The Dec ’19 total number of hogs slaughtered increased 6.6% YOY throughout the month while average weights/head finished 0.7% higher YOY. The MOM reduction in pork production of 1.6% was smaller than the ten year average November – December seasonal decline of 3.1%. ’18-’19 annual pork production increased 3.9% YOY, finishing at a record high level, while ’19-’20 YTD pork production has increased an additional 6.4% throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Beef – Production Remains at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 4.7% YOY
Dec ’19 U.S. beef production declined 3.5% MOM but remained up 4.7% YOY when normalizing for slaughter days, finishing at a record high seasonal level for the second consecutive month. The Dec ’19 total number of cattle slaughtered increased 4.3% YOY throughout the month while average weights/head finished 0.4% higher YOY. The MOM reduction in beef production of 3.5% was smaller than the ten year average November – December seasonal decline of 4.6%. ’18-’19 annual beef production increased 0.6% YOY, finishing at a 16 year high level, while ’19-’20 YTD beef production has increased an additional 2.1% throughout the first quarter of the production season.
- Dec ’19 U.S. commercial red meat production increased 5.9% on a YOY basis, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the fourth consecutive month. The YOY increase in total red meat production was the 11th experienced throughout the past 12 months and the largest experienced throughout the past two years.
- Dec ’19 U.S. pork production increased 7.1% on a YOY basis, also remaining at a record high seasonal level for the fourth consecutive month. The total number of hogs slaughtered increased 6.6% YOY throughout the month while average weights/head finished 0.7% higher.
- Dec ’19 U.S. beef production increased 4.7% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal high level for the second consecutive month. The total number of cattle slaughtered increased 4.3% YOY throughout the month while average weights/head finished 0.4% higher.
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