U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Feb ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Dec ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Dec ’19, finishing up 1.6%. Export demand increased 22.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 2.4% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.5% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.6%, reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has rebounded by 2.1% throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Butter – Disappearance Increases YOY for the Fourth Time in Five Months, Finishes up 11.5%
U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 11.5% on a YOY basis during Dec ’19, reaching a five year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in butter commercial disappearance was the fourth experienced in the past five months. Domestic butter demand increased 12.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 41.5% decline in export demand.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 2.1% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 3.1%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD butter disappearance has increased an additional 1.2% throughout the first quarter of the production season.
U.S. butter production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Dec ’19, resulting in stocks rebounding seasonally from the 11 month low level experienced throughout the previous month. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Cheese – Disappearance Declines 0.3% YOY Despite Strong American Cheese Demand
U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 0.3% on a YOY basis during Dec ’19, finishing lower for the second consecutive month. Cheese commercial disappearance remained at the second highest seasonal level on record, however, finishing 2.6% above three year average seasonal figures. Other-than-American cheese disappearance declined 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.3% YOY increase in American cheese disappearance. Total cheese export demand declined 9.4% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.3% YOY increase in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.2% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.2%, also reaching the highest figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD cheese disappearance has increased by an additional 0.2% throughout the first quarter of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. cheese domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Dec ’19, resulting in stocks declining to a 23 month low level.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Increases 18.7% YOY on Strong Domestic Demand
U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 18.7% on a YOY basis during Dec ’19, finishing higher for the third time in the past four months. Domestic dry whey demand increased 34.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 4.8% decline in export demand. The YOY increase in domestic dry whey demand was the eighth experienced in a row while the YOY decline in dry whey export demand was the 16th experienced in a row.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.9% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. Domestic disappearance increased 8.6% YOY, however, reaching a three year high level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey disappearance has rebounded by 10.9% throughout the first quarter of the production season.
U.S. dry whey domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Dec ’19, resulting in stocks declining to a four month low level.
WPC – Disappearance Increases YOY for the Second Consecutive Month, Finishes up 2.8%
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 2.8% on a YOY basis during Dec ’19, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month. WPC disappearance had declined on a YOY basis over nine consecutive months prior to finishing higher over each of the past two months. WPC export demand increased 63.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 24.4% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.9% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance increased 33.2% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC disappearance has rebounded by 0.5% throughout the first quarter of the production season.
U.S. WPC domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Dec ’19, resulting in stocks declining from the 18 month high level experienced throughout the previous month.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Declined YOY for the First Time in Four Months, Finishes Down 7.1%
U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 7.1% on a YOY basis during Dec ’19, reaching a four year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in NFDM/SMP disappearance was the first experienced throughout the past four months. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand declined 59.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 37.4% increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 4.2% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite finishing 5.1% higher on a YOY basis throughout the final third of the production season. Domestic disappearance increased 5.8%, rebounding from the 11 year low experienced throughout the previous production season. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP disappearance has rebounded by 11.2% throughout the first quarter of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Dec ’19, resulting in stocks increasing to a three month high level.
On an absolute basis, Dec ’19 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for butter while declining most significantly for NFDM/SMP. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP while cheese export demand finished most significantly lower YOY.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Reach a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 2.1% YOY
U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 17th time in the past 18 months during Oct ’19, finishing down 2.1% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of whole milk remained higher on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing up 0.5%, however fat-free milk sales remained weak, declining by 11.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
’18-’19 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 1.5%, as whole milk sales increased to an 11 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Oct ’19, finishing down 1.1%. ’18-’19 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level.
- U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products increased 1.4% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 1.6% YOY on a skim-solids basis during Dec ’19. Domestic demand increased 1.3% YOY on a milk-fat basis but declined 2.4% YOY on a skim-solids basis throughout the month.
- U.S. butter disappearance increased to a five year high seasonal level during Dec ’19 while dry whey and whey protein concentrate disappearance also finished higher on a YOY basis throughout the month. U.S. cheese disappearance finished slightly lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month while nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder disappearance declined to a four year seasonal low level, finishing lower for the first time in the past four months.
- U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 17th time in the past 18 months during Oct ’19, finishing down 2.1% and reaching a record low seasonal level.
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Dec ’19, finishing up 1.6%. Export demand increased 22.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 2.4% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.5% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.6%, reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has rebounded by 2.1% throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Butter – Disappearance Increases YOY for the Fourth Time in Five Months, Finishes up 11.5%
U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 11.5% on a YOY basis during Dec ’19, reaching a five year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in butter commercial disappearance was the fourth experienced in the past five months. Domestic butter demand increased 12.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 41.5% decline in export demand.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 2.1% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 3.1%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD butter disappearance has increased an additional 1.2% throughout the first quarter of the production season.
U.S. butter production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Dec ’19, resulting in stocks rebounding seasonally from the 11 month low level experienced throughout the previous month. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Cheese – Disappearance Declines 0.3% YOY Despite Strong American Cheese Demand
U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 0.3% on a YOY basis during Dec ’19, finishing lower for the second consecutive month. Cheese commercial disappearance remained at the second highest seasonal level on record, however, finishing 2.6% above three year average seasonal figures. Other-than-American cheese disappearance declined 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.3% YOY increase in American cheese disappearance. Total cheese export demand declined 9.4% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.3% YOY increase in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.2% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.2%, also reaching the highest figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD cheese disappearance has increased by an additional 0.2% throughout the first quarter of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. cheese domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Dec ’19, resulting in stocks declining to a 23 month low level.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Increases 18.7% YOY on Strong Domestic Demand
U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 18.7% on a YOY basis during Dec ’19, finishing higher for the third time in the past four months. Domestic dry whey demand increased 34.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 4.8% decline in export demand. The YOY increase in domestic dry whey demand was the eighth experienced in a row while the YOY decline in dry whey export demand was the 16th experienced in a row.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.9% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. Domestic disappearance increased 8.6% YOY, however, reaching a three year high level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey disappearance has rebounded by 10.9% throughout the first quarter of the production season.
U.S. dry whey domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Dec ’19, resulting in stocks declining to a four month low level.
WPC – Disappearance Increases YOY for the Second Consecutive Month, Finishes up 2.8%
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 2.8% on a YOY basis during Dec ’19, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month. WPC disappearance had declined on a YOY basis over nine consecutive months prior to finishing higher over each of the past two months. WPC export demand increased 63.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 24.4% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.9% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance increased 33.2% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC disappearance has rebounded by 0.5% throughout the first quarter of the production season.
U.S. WPC domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Dec ’19, resulting in stocks declining from the 18 month high level experienced throughout the previous month.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Declined YOY for the First Time in Four Months, Finishes Down 7.1%
U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 7.1% on a YOY basis during Dec ’19, reaching a four year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in NFDM/SMP disappearance was the first experienced throughout the past four months. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand declined 59.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 37.4% increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 4.2% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite finishing 5.1% higher on a YOY basis throughout the final third of the production season. Domestic disappearance increased 5.8%, rebounding from the 11 year low experienced throughout the previous production season. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP disappearance has rebounded by 11.2% throughout the first quarter of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Dec ’19, resulting in stocks increasing to a three month high level.
On an absolute basis, Dec ’19 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for butter while declining most significantly for NFDM/SMP. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP while cheese export demand finished most significantly lower YOY.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Reach a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 2.1% YOY
U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 17th time in the past 18 months during Oct ’19, finishing down 2.1% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of whole milk remained higher on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing up 0.5%, however fat-free milk sales remained weak, declining by 11.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
’18-’19 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 1.5%, as whole milk sales increased to an 11 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Oct ’19, finishing down 1.1%. ’18-’19 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level.