U.S. Milk Production Update – Feb ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. milk production figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jan ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 61 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Jan ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.3% from Feb ’19 – Jun ’19. Milk production volumes rebounded throughout more recent months, however, reaching a 20 month high YOY growth rate throughout Oct ’19 and remaining higher on a YOY basis over the months of November – January.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Texas (+7.9%), followed by Kansas (+5.6%) and Colorado (+4.5%). Production finished most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within Utah (-5.7%) and Arizona (-2.6%). Overall, 14 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY increases in production throughout the month.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during Jan ’20, finishing up 0.7%. California accounted for 18.8% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.
Seven of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY gains in production throughout Jan ’20, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states finished higher by a weighted average of 1.4% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Jan ’20. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states declined by 0.5% YOY throughout the month, however.
YOY increases in milk production on an absolute basis were led by Texas, followed by Idaho and New York, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Wisconsin. The YOY decline in Wisconsin production volumes was the third experienced in a row.
The Dec ’19 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 4,000 head higher than previously stated while the Jan ’20 herd increased an additional 5,000 head from the December revised figure, reaching an 11 month high level. The U.S. milk cow herd had reached a three year low level during Jul ’19 prior to rebounding by a total of 33,000 head throughout the past six months. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.348 million head, which remains 6,000 head below the previous year and 90,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
The YOY decline in milk cow numbers was offset by continually increasing U.S. milk per cow yields experienced throughout Jan ’20. The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the 51st consecutive month throughout Jan ’20, finishing 1.0% above the previous year. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the smallest experienced throughout the past five months on a percentage basis, however. Yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished 1.0% higher on a YOY basis however yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon declined 0.1% YOY, finishing lower for the third consecutive month.
MOM increases in milk cow herds experienced throughout Idaho, New Mexico, Virginia, Ohio, Kansas, South Dakota and Georgia more than offset MOM declines in the Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, California, New York, Arizona and Utah milk cow herds.
YOY declines in milk cow herds continue to be led by Pennsylvania, followed by Arizona and Wisconsin. Texas, Idaho, Colorado and New Mexico experienced the largest YOY increases in their milk cow herds throughout the month.
- U.S. milk production increased 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’20, reaching a record high seasonal level. The monthly YOY increase in milk production was the seventh experienced in a row.
- The U.S. milk cow herd reached an 11 month high level during Jan ’20, increasing 5,000 head from the previous month’s revised figure. Milk cow herd figures have increased by a total of 33,000 head throughout the past six months, rebounding from the three year low level experienced throughout Jul ’19.
- U.S. milk per cow yields increased YOY for the 51st consecutive month throughout Jan ’20, finishing 1.0% above the previous year.
U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 61 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Jan ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.3% from Feb ’19 – Jun ’19. Milk production volumes rebounded throughout more recent months, however, reaching a 20 month high YOY growth rate throughout Oct ’19 and remaining higher on a YOY basis over the months of November – January.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Texas (+7.9%), followed by Kansas (+5.6%) and Colorado (+4.5%). Production finished most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within Utah (-5.7%) and Arizona (-2.6%). Overall, 14 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY increases in production throughout the month.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during Jan ’20, finishing up 0.7%. California accounted for 18.8% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.
Seven of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY gains in production throughout Jan ’20, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states finished higher by a weighted average of 1.4% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Jan ’20. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states declined by 0.5% YOY throughout the month, however.
YOY increases in milk production on an absolute basis were led by Texas, followed by Idaho and New York, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Wisconsin. The YOY decline in Wisconsin production volumes was the third experienced in a row.
The Dec ’19 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 4,000 head higher than previously stated while the Jan ’20 herd increased an additional 5,000 head from the December revised figure, reaching an 11 month high level. The U.S. milk cow herd had reached a three year low level during Jul ’19 prior to rebounding by a total of 33,000 head throughout the past six months. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.348 million head, which remains 6,000 head below the previous year and 90,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
The YOY decline in milk cow numbers was offset by continually increasing U.S. milk per cow yields experienced throughout Jan ’20. The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the 51st consecutive month throughout Jan ’20, finishing 1.0% above the previous year. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the smallest experienced throughout the past five months on a percentage basis, however. Yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished 1.0% higher on a YOY basis however yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon declined 0.1% YOY, finishing lower for the third consecutive month.
MOM increases in milk cow herds experienced throughout Idaho, New Mexico, Virginia, Ohio, Kansas, South Dakota and Georgia more than offset MOM declines in the Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, California, New York, Arizona and Utah milk cow herds.
YOY declines in milk cow herds continue to be led by Pennsylvania, followed by Arizona and Wisconsin. Texas, Idaho, Colorado and New Mexico experienced the largest YOY increases in their milk cow herds throughout the month.