U.S. Dairy Cold Storage Update – Feb ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jan ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to the USDA, Jan ’20 U.S. butter stocks rebounded seasonally to a four month high level while remaining higher on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month, finishing up 14.9% to a 26 year seasonal high level. The MOM increase in butter stocks of 53.0 million pounds, or 28.0%, was fairly consistent with the ten year average December – January seasonal build of 44.8 million pounds, or 34.6%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing throughout the first half of the calendar year.
On a days of usage basis, Jan ’20 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of January, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the second time in the past three months, finishing up 15.0%.
Cheese – Stocks Remain Lower YOY for the Seventh Time in Eight Months, Finish Down 1.2% YOY
Jan ’20 U.S. cheese stocks rebounded seasonally from the 22 month low level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 1.2% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in cheese stocks was the seventh experienced throughout the past eight months but the smallest experienced throughout the past four months on a percentage basis. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Jan ’20 U.S. cheese stocks remained 5.7% above three year average seasonal levels. American cheese stocks declined 3.1% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.5% YOY increase in other-than-American cheese stocks. The MOM increase in cheese stocks of 30.7 million pounds, or 2.3%, was larger than the ten year average December – January seasonal build of 14.2 million pounds, or 1.3%.
On a days of usage basis, Jan ’20 U.S. cheese stocks also remained lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of January, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the fifth consecutive month, finishing down 2.9%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Decline to a Three Year Seasonal Low, Finish Down 2.1% YOY
Dec ’19 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM declined on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing down 2.1%. Combined dairy product stocks reached a three year seasonal low level but remained 1.9% above three year average seasonal figures.
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM are projected to remain lower on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month throughout Jan ’20 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and NFDM stocks, declining by an estimated 0.6%. Jan ’20 dry whey and NFDM stock figures are scheduled to be available March 4th.
- U.S. butter stocks remained higher on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month during Jan ’20, finishing up 14.9% and reaching a 26 year seasonal high level.
- Jan ’20 U.S. cheese stocks rebounded from the 22 month low level experienced throughout the previous month but remained lower on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past eight months, finishing down 1.2%.
According to the USDA, Jan ’20 U.S. butter stocks rebounded seasonally to a four month high level while remaining higher on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month, finishing up 14.9% to a 26 year seasonal high level. The MOM increase in butter stocks of 53.0 million pounds, or 28.0%, was fairly consistent with the ten year average December – January seasonal build of 44.8 million pounds, or 34.6%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing throughout the first half of the calendar year.
On a days of usage basis, Jan ’20 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of January, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the second time in the past three months, finishing up 15.0%.
Cheese – Stocks Remain Lower YOY for the Seventh Time in Eight Months, Finish Down 1.2% YOY
Jan ’20 U.S. cheese stocks rebounded seasonally from the 22 month low level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 1.2% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in cheese stocks was the seventh experienced throughout the past eight months but the smallest experienced throughout the past four months on a percentage basis. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Jan ’20 U.S. cheese stocks remained 5.7% above three year average seasonal levels. American cheese stocks declined 3.1% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.5% YOY increase in other-than-American cheese stocks. The MOM increase in cheese stocks of 30.7 million pounds, or 2.3%, was larger than the ten year average December – January seasonal build of 14.2 million pounds, or 1.3%.
On a days of usage basis, Jan ’20 U.S. cheese stocks also remained lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of January, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the fifth consecutive month, finishing down 2.9%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Decline to a Three Year Seasonal Low, Finish Down 2.1% YOY
Dec ’19 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM declined on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing down 2.1%. Combined dairy product stocks reached a three year seasonal low level but remained 1.9% above three year average seasonal figures.
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM are projected to remain lower on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month throughout Jan ’20 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and NFDM stocks, declining by an estimated 0.6%. Jan ’20 dry whey and NFDM stock figures are scheduled to be available March 4th.