U.S. Dairy Exports Update – Mar ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy export figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jan ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
Canada was the top destination for U.S. butterfat export volumes throughout Jan ’20, accounting for over half of the total export volumes.
Butterfat export volumes destined to Saudi Arabia declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month, followed by volumes destined to Columbia, while butterfat export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly higher.
Canada and Mexico have historically been the largest importers of U.S. butterfat, accounting for over half of the total U.S. export volumes experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to Canada and Mexico have declined by 32.9% and 73.9%, respectively, on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, compared to a 30.5% YOY decline in U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to all other countries.
Cheese – Export Volumes Increase 0.4% YOY to a Six Year Seasonal High Level
U.S. cheese export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months during Jan ’20, finishing up 0.4% to a six year seasonal high level. Other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes increased 7.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 33.7% YOY decline in cheddar cheese export volumes.
’18-’19 annual cheese export volumes increased 2.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a five year high level. ’19-’20 YTD cheese export volumes have increased an additional 0.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season.
Mexico was the top destination for U.S. cheese export volumes throughout Jan ’20, accounting for nearly a third of the total export volumes. Mexico, South Korea and Australia combined to account for over half of the total Jan ’20 U.S. cheese exports volumes.
YOY increases in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, while volumes destined to South Korea finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico and South Korea have historically been the largest importers of U.S. cheese, accounting for 45% of total U.S. cheese export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and South Korea have increased 3.2% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months.
Whey – Dry Whey Exports Remain Lower YOY, Whey Protein Concentrate Volumes Remain Higher
U.S. dry whey export volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the 17th consecutive month during Jan ’20, declining by 5.8% and reaching a five year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in dry whey export volumes was the smallest experienced throughout the 17 month period, however.
’18-’19 annual dry whey export volumes declined 29.8% from the four year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a 15 year low level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey export volumes have declined by an additional 20.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season and are on pace to reach a 16 year low level.
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes increased 60.3% on a YOY basis during Jan ’20, finishing higher for the fourth consecutive month. WPC export volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 11 of 12 months prior to increasing throughout the past four months.
’18-’19 annual WPC export volumes declined 29.1% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC export volumes have rebounded by 34.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season, however.
China was the top destination for U.S. whey export volumes throughout Jan ’20, accounting for nearly a third of the total export volumes. China, Mexico, Canada and New Zealand combined to account for over half of the total Jan ’20 U.S. whey exports volumes.
YOY increases in whey export volumes were led by product destined to China, while volumes destined to Japan finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
China has historically been the largest importer of U.S. whey products, accounting for over a third of the total U.S. whey export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. whey export volumes destined to China have declined 46.1% YOY throughout the past 12 months, more than offsetting a 1.4% YOY increase in whey export volumes destined to all other countries over the same period. China applied a 25% retaliatory tariff to a wide variety of U.S. dairy products including whey during early Jul ’18 while Chinese whey demand has also been reduced on weaker feed demand due to African swine fever.
NFDM/SMP – Export Volumes Increase 40.8% YOY, Reach a Record High Seasonal Level
U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) finished higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during Jan ’20, increasing 40.8% and reaching a record high seasonal level. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes have finished at record high seasonal levels over three consecutive months through Jan ’20.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP exports declined 9.4% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season but remained at the second highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP export volumes have rebounded by 33.0% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season and are on pace to reach a record high level.
Mexico was the top destination for U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout Jan ’20, accounting for over a third of the total export volumes. Mexico, the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam combined to account for over two thirds of the total Jan ’20 U.S. NFDM/SMP exports volumes.
YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to Indonesia, followed by volumes destined to the Philippines and Vietnam, while export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. NFDM/SMP, accounting for nearly half of all U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes destined to Mexico have declined 7.9% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months while volumes destined to all other countries have increased 10.4% YOY over the same period.
Export Volumes Normalized to Production
U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production finished above previous year figures during Jan ’20 however butterfat and dry whey export volumes as a percentage of production remained lower on a YOY basis. Cheese export volumes as a percentage of production finished equal to previous year figures.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 15.1% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Jan ’20 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 3.5% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Jan ’20 net dairy trade was estimated to increase 27.5% on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the third consecutive month and reaching a record high seasonal level. Net dairy trade had finished lower on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months prior to increasing YOY over the three most recent months.
U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Jan ’20, finishing up 20.8% and reaching a record high seasonal level. ’18-’19 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 12.3% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a three year low, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have rebounded by 12.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season.
U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased on a YOY basis for the 15th time in the past 16 months during Jan ’20, finishing up 2.9%. ’18-’19 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded 12.7% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching a three year high, while ’19-’20 YTD figures have increased on additional 1.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net cheese trade volumes exceeded net dry whey trade volumes for the third consecutive month during Jan ’20 while the U.S. finished as a net importer of butter for the 21st consecutive month.
- U.S. butterfat export volumes declined on a YOY basis for the 11th consecutive month during Jan ’20, finishing down 22.3% to a 13 year seasonal low level, however U.S. cheese export volumes increased 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month, finishing at a six year seasonal high level.
- U.S. dry whey export volumes declined 5.8% on a YOY basis during Jan ’20, reaching a five year seasonal low level, however whey protein concentrate export volumes increased 60.3% YOY, finishing higher for the fourth consecutive month. U.S. nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month, finishing up 40.8% and reaching a record high seasonal level.
- Net dairy trade on a percentage of total U.S. milk-solids production basis increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Jan ’20, finishing up 27.5% and reaching a record high seasonal level.
Canada was the top destination for U.S. butterfat export volumes throughout Jan ’20, accounting for over half of the total export volumes.
Butterfat export volumes destined to Saudi Arabia declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month, followed by volumes destined to Columbia, while butterfat export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly higher.
Canada and Mexico have historically been the largest importers of U.S. butterfat, accounting for over half of the total U.S. export volumes experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to Canada and Mexico have declined by 32.9% and 73.9%, respectively, on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, compared to a 30.5% YOY decline in U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to all other countries.
Cheese – Export Volumes Increase 0.4% YOY to a Six Year Seasonal High Level
U.S. cheese export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months during Jan ’20, finishing up 0.4% to a six year seasonal high level. Other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes increased 7.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 33.7% YOY decline in cheddar cheese export volumes.
’18-’19 annual cheese export volumes increased 2.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a five year high level. ’19-’20 YTD cheese export volumes have increased an additional 0.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season.
Mexico was the top destination for U.S. cheese export volumes throughout Jan ’20, accounting for nearly a third of the total export volumes. Mexico, South Korea and Australia combined to account for over half of the total Jan ’20 U.S. cheese exports volumes.
YOY increases in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, while volumes destined to South Korea finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico and South Korea have historically been the largest importers of U.S. cheese, accounting for 45% of total U.S. cheese export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and South Korea have increased 3.2% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months.
Whey – Dry Whey Exports Remain Lower YOY, Whey Protein Concentrate Volumes Remain Higher
U.S. dry whey export volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the 17th consecutive month during Jan ’20, declining by 5.8% and reaching a five year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in dry whey export volumes was the smallest experienced throughout the 17 month period, however.
’18-’19 annual dry whey export volumes declined 29.8% from the four year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a 15 year low level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey export volumes have declined by an additional 20.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season and are on pace to reach a 16 year low level.
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes increased 60.3% on a YOY basis during Jan ’20, finishing higher for the fourth consecutive month. WPC export volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 11 of 12 months prior to increasing throughout the past four months.
’18-’19 annual WPC export volumes declined 29.1% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC export volumes have rebounded by 34.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season, however.
China was the top destination for U.S. whey export volumes throughout Jan ’20, accounting for nearly a third of the total export volumes. China, Mexico, Canada and New Zealand combined to account for over half of the total Jan ’20 U.S. whey exports volumes.
YOY increases in whey export volumes were led by product destined to China, while volumes destined to Japan finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
China has historically been the largest importer of U.S. whey products, accounting for over a third of the total U.S. whey export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. whey export volumes destined to China have declined 46.1% YOY throughout the past 12 months, more than offsetting a 1.4% YOY increase in whey export volumes destined to all other countries over the same period. China applied a 25% retaliatory tariff to a wide variety of U.S. dairy products including whey during early Jul ’18 while Chinese whey demand has also been reduced on weaker feed demand due to African swine fever.
NFDM/SMP – Export Volumes Increase 40.8% YOY, Reach a Record High Seasonal Level
U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) finished higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during Jan ’20, increasing 40.8% and reaching a record high seasonal level. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes have finished at record high seasonal levels over three consecutive months through Jan ’20.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP exports declined 9.4% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season but remained at the second highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP export volumes have rebounded by 33.0% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season and are on pace to reach a record high level.
Mexico was the top destination for U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout Jan ’20, accounting for over a third of the total export volumes. Mexico, the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam combined to account for over two thirds of the total Jan ’20 U.S. NFDM/SMP exports volumes.
YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to Indonesia, followed by volumes destined to the Philippines and Vietnam, while export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. NFDM/SMP, accounting for nearly half of all U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes destined to Mexico have declined 7.9% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months while volumes destined to all other countries have increased 10.4% YOY over the same period.
Export Volumes Normalized to Production
U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production finished above previous year figures during Jan ’20 however butterfat and dry whey export volumes as a percentage of production remained lower on a YOY basis. Cheese export volumes as a percentage of production finished equal to previous year figures.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 15.1% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Jan ’20 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 3.5% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Jan ’20 net dairy trade was estimated to increase 27.5% on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the third consecutive month and reaching a record high seasonal level. Net dairy trade had finished lower on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months prior to increasing YOY over the three most recent months.
U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Jan ’20, finishing up 20.8% and reaching a record high seasonal level. ’18-’19 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 12.3% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a three year low, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have rebounded by 12.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season.
U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased on a YOY basis for the 15th time in the past 16 months during Jan ’20, finishing up 2.9%. ’18-’19 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded 12.7% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching a three year high, while ’19-’20 YTD figures have increased on additional 1.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net cheese trade volumes exceeded net dry whey trade volumes for the third consecutive month during Jan ’20 while the U.S. finished as a net importer of butter for the 21st consecutive month.