Global Dairy Trade Results Update – 4/21/20
Executive Summary
Dairy product prices declined during the GDT event held Apr 21st. Highlights from the most recent auction include:
The GDT Price Index finished 16.8% below previous year price levels at the Apr 21st auction, declining on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive event. The GDT Price Index finished 14.4% below the three year average price for the second auction of April, finishing below three year average figures for the sixth consecutive event.
Within the latest auction, declines in prices were led by anhydrous milkfat (-7.0%), followed by skim milk powder (-4.9%), whole milk powder (-3.9%), butter (-3.6%) and rennet casein (-3.0%). The declines more than offset increases in cheddar cheese (+1.9%) and lactose (+12.0%) prices. Butter milk powder and sweet whey powder were not sold at the Apr 21st event.
The table below provides a summary of the most recent GDT weighted average winning prices for key products. Butter has been adjusted to 80% butterfat and skim milk powder (SMP) has been adjusted to 35% protein content (equivalent to U.S. nonfat dry milk) in the $/lb columns below. CME spot and average futures prices are based on Apr 20th figures. CME average futures prices are weighted average prices based on the most recently reported percentage of the total quantity sold in each GDT contract period.
Total quantities sold for all products at the Apr 21st event rebounded 1.5% from the ten month low level experienced throughout the previous event while finishing 27.4% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in total quantities sold was the eighth experienced in a row.
Volumes sold for all products within the April auctions declined 17.8% from average March volumes sold but finished 20.2% above last year’s average volumes sold for the month of April. Apr ’20 volumes sold for all products finished 5.7% above three year average seasonal figures, reaching a three year seasonal high level.
U.S. butter prices remained at a significant discount to GDT winning prices at the Apr 21st event, despite GDT butter prices declining from the eight month high level experienced throughout the previous auction. U.S. spot butter prices are currently trading at a 34.1% discount to GDT prices while CME futures prices traded at an 18.7% discount to GDT prices from Jun ’20 – Oct ’20. Butter was not sold at the GDT auction for Contract 1 (May ’20).
U.S. cheddar cheese prices also remained at a discount to GDT winning prices at the Apr 21st event as GDT cheddar cheese prices increased to a two month high level. U.S. spot cheddar cheese prices are currently trading at a 50.3% discount to GDT prices while CME futures prices traded at a 29.8% discount to GDT prices from May ’20 – Sep ’20. Cheddar cheese was not sold at the GDT auction for Contract 4 (Aug ’20) and Contract 6 (Oct ’20).
U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) futures prices also remained at a discount to GDT SMP winning prices at the Apr 21st event, despite GDT SMP prices declining to a ten month low level. U.S. spot NFDM prices are currently trading at a 24.4% discount to GDT SMP prices while CME futures prices traded at a 19.6% discount to GDT SMP prices from May ’20 – Sep ’20. SMP was not sold at the GDT auction for Contract 6 (Oct ’20).
- The GDT Price Index declined 4.2% at the Apr 21st event, reaching a 16 month low level. The GDT Price Index finished 16.8% below previous year price levels, declining on YOY basis for the fifth consecutive event.
- Declines in prices within the Apr 21st event were led by anhydrous milkfat, followed by skim milk powder, whole milk powder, butter and rennet casein. Anhydrous milkfat prices declined to a three and a half year low level throughout the Apr 21st event while skim milk powder and whole milk powder prices declined to ten and 15 month low levels, respectively. Cheddar cheese prices increased to a two month high level throughout the Apr 21st event, however, while lactose prices also finished higher.
- Total quantities sold for all products at the Apr 21st event rebounded from the ten month low level experienced throughout the previous event while remaining higher on a YOY basis for the eighth consecutive auction. Volumes sold for all products within the April auctions finished 20.2% above last year’s average volumes sold for the month of April and 5.7% above three year average seasonal figures, reaching a three year high seasonal level, overall.
The GDT Price Index finished 16.8% below previous year price levels at the Apr 21st auction, declining on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive event. The GDT Price Index finished 14.4% below the three year average price for the second auction of April, finishing below three year average figures for the sixth consecutive event.
Within the latest auction, declines in prices were led by anhydrous milkfat (-7.0%), followed by skim milk powder (-4.9%), whole milk powder (-3.9%), butter (-3.6%) and rennet casein (-3.0%). The declines more than offset increases in cheddar cheese (+1.9%) and lactose (+12.0%) prices. Butter milk powder and sweet whey powder were not sold at the Apr 21st event.
The table below provides a summary of the most recent GDT weighted average winning prices for key products. Butter has been adjusted to 80% butterfat and skim milk powder (SMP) has been adjusted to 35% protein content (equivalent to U.S. nonfat dry milk) in the $/lb columns below. CME spot and average futures prices are based on Apr 20th figures. CME average futures prices are weighted average prices based on the most recently reported percentage of the total quantity sold in each GDT contract period.
Total quantities sold for all products at the Apr 21st event rebounded 1.5% from the ten month low level experienced throughout the previous event while finishing 27.4% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in total quantities sold was the eighth experienced in a row.
Volumes sold for all products within the April auctions declined 17.8% from average March volumes sold but finished 20.2% above last year’s average volumes sold for the month of April. Apr ’20 volumes sold for all products finished 5.7% above three year average seasonal figures, reaching a three year seasonal high level.
U.S. butter prices remained at a significant discount to GDT winning prices at the Apr 21st event, despite GDT butter prices declining from the eight month high level experienced throughout the previous auction. U.S. spot butter prices are currently trading at a 34.1% discount to GDT prices while CME futures prices traded at an 18.7% discount to GDT prices from Jun ’20 – Oct ’20. Butter was not sold at the GDT auction for Contract 1 (May ’20).
U.S. cheddar cheese prices also remained at a discount to GDT winning prices at the Apr 21st event as GDT cheddar cheese prices increased to a two month high level. U.S. spot cheddar cheese prices are currently trading at a 50.3% discount to GDT prices while CME futures prices traded at a 29.8% discount to GDT prices from May ’20 – Sep ’20. Cheddar cheese was not sold at the GDT auction for Contract 4 (Aug ’20) and Contract 6 (Oct ’20).
U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) futures prices also remained at a discount to GDT SMP winning prices at the Apr 21st event, despite GDT SMP prices declining to a ten month low level. U.S. spot NFDM prices are currently trading at a 24.4% discount to GDT SMP prices while CME futures prices traded at a 19.6% discount to GDT SMP prices from May ’20 – Sep ’20. SMP was not sold at the GDT auction for Contract 6 (Oct ’20).