U.S. Oil Rig Count Update – 4/22/20
According to Baker Hughes, U.S. oil rig counts declined to a three and a half year low level as of the week ending Apr 17th. Apr 17th week ending oil rig counts declined 13.1% from the previous week while finishing 46.9% lower on a YOY basis and 50.7% below the three and a half year high levels experienced during November of 2018. The decline in oil rig counts was the largest experienced throughout the past 14 years on a percentage basis.
Oil rig counts have declined in response to lower WTI crude oil prices, which finished 73% below the Oct ’18 highs during the week ending Apr 17th. Declines in WTI crude oil prices have accelerated over recent weeks, leading to potential lagged declines in oil rigs throughout weeks to come. Oil rig counts have correlated best with WTI crude oil price movements when utilizing a three-to-four month lag since mid-2014. It remains to be seen whether the most recent significant decline in WTI crude oil prices will result in a more rapid decline in oil rig counts as WTI crude oil prices have declined from a base price of $50/barrel to levels below $20/barrel.
Crude oil production has slowed throughout the first three weeks of April, declining to an eight month low level during the week ending Apr 17th. Apr 17th week ending oil production per rig increased to a ten year high level. Crude oil production is expected to continue to slow throughout coming months according to drilling productivity estimates compiled throughout areas accounting for 95% of recent production gains, declining to an 11 month low projected level throughout the month of May.
Oil Rig Counts Peaked in Late 2014, Prior to Declining Sharply in Early 2015
Oil Rig Counts Followed Crude Oil Prices Lower but Rebounded Throughout 2017-2018
Oil Rig Counts Correlate Best With WTI Price Movements When Utilizing a 3-4 Month Lag
Oil Rig Counts did not Decline Significantly Until Six Months Following the 2014 Price Declines
Apr 17th Oil Rig Counts Declined 13.1% Week-Over-Week, Finishing 46.9% Lower YOY
The Weekly Percentage Decline in Oil Rig Counts was the Largest in the Past 14 Years
Declines in Vertical Rigs Remain the Most Significant on a Percentage Basis
Apr 17th Weekly Crude Oil Production Volumes Declined to an Eight Month Low
Apr 17th Crude Oil Production per Rig Reached a Ten Year High