U.S. Cattle on Feed Update – Jun ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. cattle on feed figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through the end of May ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
Placements in feedlots increased seasonally from the eight year low level experienced throughout the previous month but remained lower on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month, finishing down 1.3% and reaching a four year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in placements was smaller than average analyst expectations of a 3.9% decline, however. The May – June increase in placements was the largest experienced throughout the past eight years.
YOY declines in placements were led by those weighing 700-799 pounds (-3.0%), followed by placements weighing 800 pounds or more (-1.8%). Placements weighing 600-699 pounds finished flat on a YOY basis while placements weighing 600 pounds or less increased 1.4% YOY.
Total placements in feedlots declined 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season, however annual placement rates remained 2.8% above three year average figures. ’19-’20 YTD marketings have declined by an additional 4.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds increased 0.7% on a YOY basis during May ’20, finishing higher for the first time in the past four months. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds finished 3.9% lower on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season while ’19-’20 YTD placements have declined by an additional 3.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the most recent increase.
Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 2.2% on a YOY basis during May ’20, finishing lower for the fifth consecutive month. The YOY decline in cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more was the smallest experienced throughout the five month period, however. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more increased 0.1% on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season however ’19-’20 YTD placements have declined by 5.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Marketings of fed cattle declined 27.5% on a YOY basis during May ’20, reaching a record low level for the second consecutive month. Monthly marketing figures have been compiled since 1996. The YOY decline in marketings was largely consistent with average analyst expectations of a 26.1% decline. ’18-’19 annual marketings of fed cattle increased 1.3% YOY, reaching an 11 year high, however ’19-’20 YTD marketings have declined by 4.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season. Marketings remained significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month of May as slaughterhouses closed temporarily or slowed operations due to outbreaks of COVID-19.
- U.S. cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market increased contraseasonally but remained lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month as of Jun 1st, finishing down 0.5%.
- Placements in feedlots declined 1.3% YOY during May ’20, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month and reaching a four year low seasonal level.
- Marketings of fed cattle declined 27.5% on a YOY basis during May ’20, reaching a record low monthly level for the second consecutive month.
Placements in feedlots increased seasonally from the eight year low level experienced throughout the previous month but remained lower on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month, finishing down 1.3% and reaching a four year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in placements was smaller than average analyst expectations of a 3.9% decline, however. The May – June increase in placements was the largest experienced throughout the past eight years.
YOY declines in placements were led by those weighing 700-799 pounds (-3.0%), followed by placements weighing 800 pounds or more (-1.8%). Placements weighing 600-699 pounds finished flat on a YOY basis while placements weighing 600 pounds or less increased 1.4% YOY.
Total placements in feedlots declined 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season, however annual placement rates remained 2.8% above three year average figures. ’19-’20 YTD marketings have declined by an additional 4.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds increased 0.7% on a YOY basis during May ’20, finishing higher for the first time in the past four months. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds finished 3.9% lower on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season while ’19-’20 YTD placements have declined by an additional 3.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the most recent increase.
Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 2.2% on a YOY basis during May ’20, finishing lower for the fifth consecutive month. The YOY decline in cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more was the smallest experienced throughout the five month period, however. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more increased 0.1% on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season however ’19-’20 YTD placements have declined by 5.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Marketings of fed cattle declined 27.5% on a YOY basis during May ’20, reaching a record low level for the second consecutive month. Monthly marketing figures have been compiled since 1996. The YOY decline in marketings was largely consistent with average analyst expectations of a 26.1% decline. ’18-’19 annual marketings of fed cattle increased 1.3% YOY, reaching an 11 year high, however ’19-’20 YTD marketings have declined by 4.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season. Marketings remained significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month of May as slaughterhouses closed temporarily or slowed operations due to outbreaks of COVID-19.