U.S. Dairy Exports Update – Jul ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy export figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through May ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Canada were the top destinations for U.S. butterfat export volumes throughout May ’20, combining to account for over half of the total export volumes.
Butterfat export volumes destined to Canada declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month, followed by volumes destined to the Dominican Republic, while butterfat export volumes destined to the Saudi Arabia and China finished most significantly higher.
Canada and Mexico have historically been the largest importers of U.S. butterfat, accounting for over 60% of the total U.S. export volumes experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to Canada and Mexico have declined by 29.2% and 67.6%, respectively, on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, compared to a 32.1% YOY decline in U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to all other countries.
Cheese – Export Volumes Reach a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 7.9% YOY
May ’20 U.S. cheese export volumes reached a record high seasonal level, finishing 7.9% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in cheese export volumes was the first experienced throughout the past four months. Cheddar cheese export volumes increased 4.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes finished 8.4% higher. The YOY increase in cheddar cheese export volumes was the first experienced throughout the past six months.
’18-’19 annual cheese export volumes increased 2.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a five year high level. ’19-’20 YTD cheese export volumes have declined by 3.0% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season, however, despite the most recent increase.
South Korea was the top destination for U.S. cheese export volumes throughout May ’20, accounting for a quarter of the total export volumes. South Korea, Mexico and Japan combined to account for over half of the total May ’20 U.S. cheese exports volumes.
YOY increases in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to South Korea, followed by volumes destined to Japan and Australia, while volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico and South Korea have historically been the largest importers of U.S. cheese, accounting for nearly 45% of total U.S. cheese export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and South Korea have declined 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, however.
Whey – Dry Whey and Whey Protein Concentrate Volumes Each Finish Higher YOY
U.S. dry whey export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during May ’20, finishing up 26.4%. Dry whey export volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 17 consecutive months prior to the four most recently experienced YOY increases. U.S. dry whey export volumes declined from the 20 month high level experienced throughout the previous month, however.
’18-’19 annual dry whey export volumes declined 29.8% from the four year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a 15 year low level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey export volumes have declined by an additional 0.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the recent gains.
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes increased 5.6% on a YOY basis during May ’20, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past eight months. U.S. WPC export volumes increased to an 11 month high, overall, throughout the month.
’18-’19 annual WPC export volumes declined 29.1% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC export volumes have rebounded by 24.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
China was the top destination for U.S. whey export volumes throughout May ’20, accounting for over a third of the total export volumes. China, Mexico and Indonesia combined to account for over half of the total May ’20 U.S. whey exports volumes.
YOY increases in whey export volumes continue to be led by product destined to China, while volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
China has historically been the largest importer of U.S. whey products, accounting for over a third of the total U.S. whey export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. whey export volumes destined to China have declined 6.1% YOY throughout the past 12 months, more than offsetting a 1.7% YOY increase in whey export volumes destined to all other countries over the same period. China applied a 25% retaliatory tariff to a wide variety of U.S. dairy products including whey during early Jul ’18 while Chinese whey demand has also been reduced on weaker feed demand due to African swine fever.
NFDM/SMP – Export Volumes Reach a Record High Monthly Level, Finish up 24.6% YOY
U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) reached a new record high monthly level throughout May ’20, finishing 24.6% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP export volumes was the eighth experienced throughout the past nine months.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP exports declined 9.4% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season but remained at the second highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP export volumes have rebounded by 21.0% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season and are on pace to reach a record high level.
Mexico was the top destination for U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout May ’20, accounting for 30% of the total export volumes. Mexico, the Philippines and Indonesia combined to account for over half of the total May ’20 U.S. NFDM/SMP exports volumes.
YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to the Philippines, followed by volumes destined to Indonesia and Vietnam, while export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. NFDM/SMP, accounting for over 45% of all U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes destined to Mexico have declined 12.3% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months while volumes destined to all other countries have increased 36.9% YOY over the same period.
Export Volumes Normalized to Production
U.S. cheese, dry whey and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production finished above previous year figures during May ’20 however butterfat export volumes as a percentage of production remained lower on a YOY basis.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 17.4% of total U.S. milk-solids production during May ’20 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 3.2% of total U.S. milk-solids production. May ’20 net dairy trade was estimated to increase 31.2% on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the seventh consecutive month. The May ’20 YOY increase in net dairy trade was the largest experienced throughout the past two years. Net dairy trade had finished lower on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months prior to increasing YOY over the seven most recent months.
U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month during May ’20, finishing up 18.4% and reaching a record high seasonal level. ’18-’19 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 12.7% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a three year low, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have rebounded by 9.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 17.4% on a YOY basis throughout May ’20, finishing at a three year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production was the largest experienced throughout the 23 month period on a percentage basis. ’18-’19 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded 12.7% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching a three year high, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have declined 3.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net cheese trade volumes exceeded net dry whey trade volumes for the fifth consecutive month during May ’20 while the U.S. finished as a net importer of butter for the 25th consecutive month.
- U.S. butterfat export volumes finished 6.9% lower on a YOY basis, reaching a three year low seasonal level, however U.S. cheese export volumes increased 7.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month, reaching a record high seasonal level.
- U.S. dry whey export volumes increased 26.4% on a YOY basis during May ’20, finishing higher for the fourth consecutive month, while whey protein concentrate export volumes increased 5.6% YOY, finishing higher for the seventh time in the past eight months. U.S. nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder export volumes increased to a new record high monthly level, finishing 24.6% higher on a YOY basis.
- Net dairy trade on a percentage of total U.S. milk-solids production basis increased on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month during May ’20, finishing up 31.2%. The May ’20 YOY increase in net dairy trade was the largest experienced throughout the past two years.
Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Canada were the top destinations for U.S. butterfat export volumes throughout May ’20, combining to account for over half of the total export volumes.
Butterfat export volumes destined to Canada declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month, followed by volumes destined to the Dominican Republic, while butterfat export volumes destined to the Saudi Arabia and China finished most significantly higher.
Canada and Mexico have historically been the largest importers of U.S. butterfat, accounting for over 60% of the total U.S. export volumes experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to Canada and Mexico have declined by 29.2% and 67.6%, respectively, on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, compared to a 32.1% YOY decline in U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to all other countries.
Cheese – Export Volumes Reach a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 7.9% YOY
May ’20 U.S. cheese export volumes reached a record high seasonal level, finishing 7.9% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in cheese export volumes was the first experienced throughout the past four months. Cheddar cheese export volumes increased 4.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes finished 8.4% higher. The YOY increase in cheddar cheese export volumes was the first experienced throughout the past six months.
’18-’19 annual cheese export volumes increased 2.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a five year high level. ’19-’20 YTD cheese export volumes have declined by 3.0% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season, however, despite the most recent increase.
South Korea was the top destination for U.S. cheese export volumes throughout May ’20, accounting for a quarter of the total export volumes. South Korea, Mexico and Japan combined to account for over half of the total May ’20 U.S. cheese exports volumes.
YOY increases in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to South Korea, followed by volumes destined to Japan and Australia, while volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico and South Korea have historically been the largest importers of U.S. cheese, accounting for nearly 45% of total U.S. cheese export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and South Korea have declined 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, however.
Whey – Dry Whey and Whey Protein Concentrate Volumes Each Finish Higher YOY
U.S. dry whey export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during May ’20, finishing up 26.4%. Dry whey export volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 17 consecutive months prior to the four most recently experienced YOY increases. U.S. dry whey export volumes declined from the 20 month high level experienced throughout the previous month, however.
’18-’19 annual dry whey export volumes declined 29.8% from the four year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a 15 year low level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey export volumes have declined by an additional 0.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the recent gains.
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes increased 5.6% on a YOY basis during May ’20, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past eight months. U.S. WPC export volumes increased to an 11 month high, overall, throughout the month.
’18-’19 annual WPC export volumes declined 29.1% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC export volumes have rebounded by 24.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
China was the top destination for U.S. whey export volumes throughout May ’20, accounting for over a third of the total export volumes. China, Mexico and Indonesia combined to account for over half of the total May ’20 U.S. whey exports volumes.
YOY increases in whey export volumes continue to be led by product destined to China, while volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
China has historically been the largest importer of U.S. whey products, accounting for over a third of the total U.S. whey export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. whey export volumes destined to China have declined 6.1% YOY throughout the past 12 months, more than offsetting a 1.7% YOY increase in whey export volumes destined to all other countries over the same period. China applied a 25% retaliatory tariff to a wide variety of U.S. dairy products including whey during early Jul ’18 while Chinese whey demand has also been reduced on weaker feed demand due to African swine fever.
NFDM/SMP – Export Volumes Reach a Record High Monthly Level, Finish up 24.6% YOY
U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) reached a new record high monthly level throughout May ’20, finishing 24.6% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP export volumes was the eighth experienced throughout the past nine months.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP exports declined 9.4% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season but remained at the second highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP export volumes have rebounded by 21.0% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season and are on pace to reach a record high level.
Mexico was the top destination for U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout May ’20, accounting for 30% of the total export volumes. Mexico, the Philippines and Indonesia combined to account for over half of the total May ’20 U.S. NFDM/SMP exports volumes.
YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to the Philippines, followed by volumes destined to Indonesia and Vietnam, while export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. NFDM/SMP, accounting for over 45% of all U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes destined to Mexico have declined 12.3% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months while volumes destined to all other countries have increased 36.9% YOY over the same period.
Export Volumes Normalized to Production
U.S. cheese, dry whey and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production finished above previous year figures during May ’20 however butterfat export volumes as a percentage of production remained lower on a YOY basis.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 17.4% of total U.S. milk-solids production during May ’20 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 3.2% of total U.S. milk-solids production. May ’20 net dairy trade was estimated to increase 31.2% on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the seventh consecutive month. The May ’20 YOY increase in net dairy trade was the largest experienced throughout the past two years. Net dairy trade had finished lower on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months prior to increasing YOY over the seven most recent months.
U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month during May ’20, finishing up 18.4% and reaching a record high seasonal level. ’18-’19 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 12.7% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a three year low, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have rebounded by 9.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 17.4% on a YOY basis throughout May ’20, finishing at a three year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production was the largest experienced throughout the 23 month period on a percentage basis. ’18-’19 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded 12.7% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching a three year high, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have declined 3.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net cheese trade volumes exceeded net dry whey trade volumes for the fifth consecutive month during May ’20 while the U.S. finished as a net importer of butter for the 25th consecutive month.