U.S. Livestock Cold Storage Update – Jul ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jun ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to the USDA, U.S. frozen pork stocks declined to a ten year low seasonal level throughout Jun ’20, finishing 25.0% below previous year volumes. The YOY decline in pork stocks was the third experienced in a row and the second largest experienced throughout the past nine and a half years on a percentage basis, trailing only the previous month’s decline. Frozen pork stocks had finished higher on a YOY basis over 11 consecutive months prior to the three most recent YOY declines. The MOM decline in pork stocks of 3.6 million pounds, or 0.8%, was significantly smaller than the ten year average May – June seasonal decline in stocks of 41.3 million pounds, or 6.9%, however. Pork stocks finished at an eight and a half year low level, overall.
Beef – Stocks Remain Higher on a YOY Basis for the Fifth Consecutive Month, Finish up 5.5%
Jun ’20 U.S. frozen beef stocks rebounded slightly from the 11 month low level experienced throughout the previous month while finishing 5.5% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in beef stocks was the fifth experienced in a row. Frozen beef stocks had finished lower on a YOY basis over 11 consecutive months prior to the five most recent YOY increases. The MOM increase in beef stocks of 10.8 million pounds, or 2.6%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average May – June seasonal decline in stocks of 6.3 million pounds, or 1.3%.
Chicken – Stocks Decline to an 11 Month Low Level but Remain 2.2% Higher on a YOY Basis
U.S. frozen chicken stocks declined to an 11 month low level throughout Jun ’20 but remained 2.2% higher on a YOY basis The YOY increase in chicken stocks was the ninth experienced in a row but the smallest experienced throughout the past eight months on a percentage basis. The MOM decline in chicken stocks of 3.3 million pounds, or 0.4%, was consistent with the ten year average May – June seasonal decline in stocks of 3.9 million pounds, or 0.6%.
Overall, Jun ’20 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 15.6% below the monthly record high level experienced throughout Jan ’20. Individually, Jun ’20 chicken stocks finished 13% below the record high storage level experienced throughout Nov ’19 while beef and pork stocks finished 25% and 34% below historical maximum storage levels, respectively.
Jun ’20 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks declined to a six year low seasonal level, finishing 8.0% below the record high seasonal level experienced during June of 2018. Individually, Jun ’20 chicken stocks remained within four percent of the record high seasonal storage level while beef and pork stocks finished 11% and 27% below record high seasonal storage levels, respectively.
Jun ’20 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 6.1% lower on a YOY basis. The Jun ’20 YOY decline in combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks was the second experienced in a row and the second largest experienced throughout the past three and a half years on a percentage basis, trailing only the previous month’s decline.
- U.S. pork stocks declined to an eight and a half year low level during Jun ’20, finishing 25.0% below previous year volumes.
- U.S. beef stocks remained higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during Jun ‘20, finishing up 5.5%.
- U.S. chicken stocks declined to an 11 month low level but remained higher on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month during Jun ‘20, finishing up 2.2%.
According to the USDA, U.S. frozen pork stocks declined to a ten year low seasonal level throughout Jun ’20, finishing 25.0% below previous year volumes. The YOY decline in pork stocks was the third experienced in a row and the second largest experienced throughout the past nine and a half years on a percentage basis, trailing only the previous month’s decline. Frozen pork stocks had finished higher on a YOY basis over 11 consecutive months prior to the three most recent YOY declines. The MOM decline in pork stocks of 3.6 million pounds, or 0.8%, was significantly smaller than the ten year average May – June seasonal decline in stocks of 41.3 million pounds, or 6.9%, however. Pork stocks finished at an eight and a half year low level, overall.
Beef – Stocks Remain Higher on a YOY Basis for the Fifth Consecutive Month, Finish up 5.5%
Jun ’20 U.S. frozen beef stocks rebounded slightly from the 11 month low level experienced throughout the previous month while finishing 5.5% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in beef stocks was the fifth experienced in a row. Frozen beef stocks had finished lower on a YOY basis over 11 consecutive months prior to the five most recent YOY increases. The MOM increase in beef stocks of 10.8 million pounds, or 2.6%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average May – June seasonal decline in stocks of 6.3 million pounds, or 1.3%.
Chicken – Stocks Decline to an 11 Month Low Level but Remain 2.2% Higher on a YOY Basis
U.S. frozen chicken stocks declined to an 11 month low level throughout Jun ’20 but remained 2.2% higher on a YOY basis The YOY increase in chicken stocks was the ninth experienced in a row but the smallest experienced throughout the past eight months on a percentage basis. The MOM decline in chicken stocks of 3.3 million pounds, or 0.4%, was consistent with the ten year average May – June seasonal decline in stocks of 3.9 million pounds, or 0.6%.
Overall, Jun ’20 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 15.6% below the monthly record high level experienced throughout Jan ’20. Individually, Jun ’20 chicken stocks finished 13% below the record high storage level experienced throughout Nov ’19 while beef and pork stocks finished 25% and 34% below historical maximum storage levels, respectively.
Jun ’20 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks declined to a six year low seasonal level, finishing 8.0% below the record high seasonal level experienced during June of 2018. Individually, Jun ’20 chicken stocks remained within four percent of the record high seasonal storage level while beef and pork stocks finished 11% and 27% below record high seasonal storage levels, respectively.
Jun ’20 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 6.1% lower on a YOY basis. The Jun ’20 YOY decline in combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks was the second experienced in a row and the second largest experienced throughout the past three and a half years on a percentage basis, trailing only the previous month’s decline.